151
FXUS61 KILN 180249
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
949 PM EST FRI JAN 17 2025
SYNOPSIS
RAIN, POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW AT TIMES, WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A BITTERLY COLD AIRMASS WILL THEN
SETTLE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
EVENING UPDATE...
TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY THIS EVENING AS RADIATIONAL
COOLING COMPETES AGAINST WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF TOMORROW'S
COLD FRONT. IN PLACES WHERE WINDS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO DECREASE,
THE DECOUPLED LAYER HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO COOL BACK TO
BELOW FREEZING. IN WIND PRONE AREAS AND ON ELEVATED LOCATIONS,
TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
00Z ILN RAOB OBSERVED QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR THROUGHOUT THE
TROPOSPHERE SO SOME MINOR EDITS WERE MADE TO POPS THIS EVENING
AND INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT AS RAIN MOVES IN. OTHERWISE, THE
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES OUR REGION FROM THE
WEST. AHEAD OF THIS, A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET WILL SHIFT
EAST INTO THE MID OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS IT
DOES, CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW/WAA AND MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL
LEAD TO RAIN DEVELOPING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA, MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. WHILE LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES
SUPPORT PRIMARILY ALL RAIN, SOME WET SNOW MAY MIX IN AT TIMES,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EARLY,
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO FALL OFF SOME THIS EVENING BUT THEY
SHOULD LEVEL OFF IN THE MID 30S OVERNIGHT OR EVEN RISE A BIT AS
CLOUDS THICKEN UP AND SOUTHERLY WINDS PERSIST.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT/
RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE TAPERING OFF FROM
THE WEST THROUGH LATE MORNING AND THE AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES TROUGH. IN DEVELOPING CAA BEHIND THE FRONT, THE RAIN MAY MIX
WITH OR CHANGE OVER TO SNOW BRIEFLY BEFORE ENDING, BUT DO NOT EXPECT
MUCH, IF ANY, IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION. MORNING HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 30S NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTHEAST, BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL THEN BEGIN TO FALL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE
CAA DEVELOPS.
A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL RIDE NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT
SATURDAY NIGHT. WHILE THE BULK OF ANY PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WILL
REMAIN OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST, SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY SNEAK BACK INTO OUR
FAR SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. WILL GENERALLY COVERT HIS WITH SOME
CHANCE POPS AND MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ATTM. CAA WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 15 TO 20 DEGREE
RANGE OVERNIGHT.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
TWO ITEMS TO SPEAK OF DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST. FIRST AND REALLY
QUITE MINIMAL, A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY. THESE
ARE DRIVEN BY 850 CAA IN A HUMID ENVIRONMENT IN COMBINATION
WITH A DEPARTING SYSTEM WHOSE NORTHEASTERNMOST EDGE INTERSECTS
WITH FAR SOUTHEASTERN CWA. OUTSIDE OF THESE TWO "PRIMED" AREAS
FOR LIGHT SNOW, FLURRIES SHOULD BE COMMON THROUGHOUT THE DAY
GIVEN THE OVERALL CAA AND MOISTURE PROFILE. HAVE OCCASIONAL
FLURRIES THROUGH THE DAY WHERE NO WX WAS GIVEN OUTSIDE OF
REPORTABLE POPS. KEPT FLURRIES IN CENTRAL OHIO AND LOWER SCIOTO
VALLEY INTO THE EVENING BUT NOT TOO FAR PAST SUNSET. NO THREAT
FOR PRECIPITATION EXISTS OUTSIDE OF A SLIGHT CHANCE NEXT FRIDAY.
THE LARGER AND MOST PREVALENT FOCUS IN THIS PERIOD IS THE STRETCH OF
EXTENDED COLD AIR THAT WILL HANG OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. AN EXTREME COLD
WATCH IS BEING HOISTED FOR THE ENTIRE CWA FROM OVERNIGHT SUNDAY TO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXPECT NORTHERN CWA TO REACH -20 OR LOWER AND
SOUTHERN CWA TO BE SOUTH OF -15 DEGREES. LATEST MODEL RUN PUT THE
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES A LITTLE WARMER ON TUESDAY TO WHERE THIS -20/-15
CRITERIA IS BEING EXCEEDED. HOWEVER, THE APPARENT TEMPERATURE WILL NOT
WARM BY MUCH AND IT SHOULDN'T FEEL MUCH DIFFERENT FOR THAT BRIEF PERIOD
OF TIME THEY TIP OVER THE CRITERIA.
OTHERWISE, A DRY AND COLD PERIOD IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION. THROUGH AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY, APPARENT TEMPERATURES WILL MAX OUT IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS. THE HEAT WAVE COMES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS
THE APPARENT TEMPERATURES SOAR INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.
DELVING INTO HIGH TEMPERATURES WITHOUT WIND CHILL INVOLVED, SUNDAYS
READINGS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S WILL DROP TO THE SINGLE DIGITS/LOW TEENS
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. TEENS TO AROUND 20 ON WEDNESDAY WILL RISE TO
BETWEEN 27 AND 33, COOLEST IN THE NORTH.
AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE PERIOD
AS MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE
ONSET OF WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED WITHIN THIS TIME FRAME.
THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO 12Z, RESTRICTIONS WORSEN AS
RAIN BEGINS TO FALL AND LOWER CLOUDS DEVELOP. NO MAJOR CHANGES
WITH TIMING FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, BUT LIFR CIGS WERE ADDED
FOR DAY AND ILN. VIS RESTRICTIONS ALSO OCCUR WITH THE RAIN/BR.
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON BETWEEN 18Z-20Z,
CAUSING A WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST. EVENTUALLY,
WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE NORTHERLY TOWARD THE CONCLUSION OF THE
TAF. SOME WET SNOW FLAKES MAY MIX IN WITH THE RAIN AT TIMES,
PRIMARILY AT THE NORTHERN TAF SITES. AS WE MOISTEN UP, CIGS AND
VSBYS WILL DROP INTO MVFR AND THEN IFR LATER TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. VSBYS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH LATE SATURDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON BUT IFR
TO MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE INTO SUNDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-
070>074-077>082-088.
KY...EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080.
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL/MCGINNIS
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...MCGINNIS
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