553
FXUS61 KILN 180525
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1225 AM EST SAT JAN 18 2025
SYNOPSIS
RAIN, POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW AT TIMES, WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A BITTERLY COLD AIRMASS WILL THEN
SETTLE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
EVENING UPDATE...
TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY THIS EVENING AS RADIATIONAL
COOLING COMPETES AGAINST WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF TOMORROW'S
COLD FRONT. IN PLACES WHERE WINDS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO DECREASE,
THE DECOUPLED LAYER HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO COOL BACK TO
BELOW FREEZING. IN WIND PRONE AREAS AND ON ELEVATED LOCATIONS,
TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
00Z ILN RAOB OBSERVED QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR THROUGHOUT THE
TROPOSPHERE SO SOME MINOR EDITS WERE MADE TO POPS THIS EVENING
AND INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT AS RAIN MOVES IN. OTHERWISE, THE
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES OUR REGION FROM THE
WEST. AHEAD OF THIS, A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET WILL SHIFT
EAST INTO THE MID OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS IT
DOES, CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW/WAA AND MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL
LEAD TO RAIN DEVELOPING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA, MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. WHILE LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES
SUPPORT PRIMARILY ALL RAIN, SOME WET SNOW MAY MIX IN AT TIMES,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EARLY,
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO FALL OFF SOME THIS EVENING BUT THEY
SHOULD LEVEL OFF IN THE MID 30S OVERNIGHT OR EVEN RISE A BIT AS
CLOUDS THICKEN UP AND SOUTHERLY WINDS PERSIST.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/
RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE TAPERING OFF FROM
THE WEST THROUGH LATE MORNING AND THE AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES TROUGH. IN DEVELOPING CAA BEHIND THE FRONT, THE RAIN MAY MIX
WITH OR CHANGE OVER TO SNOW BRIEFLY BEFORE ENDING, BUT DO NOT EXPECT
MUCH, IF ANY, IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION. MORNING HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 30S NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTHEAST, BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL THEN BEGIN TO FALL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE
CAA DEVELOPS.
A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL RIDE NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT
SATURDAY NIGHT. WHILE THE BULK OF ANY PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WILL
REMAIN OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST, SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY SNEAK BACK INTO OUR
FAR SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. WILL GENERALLY COVERT HIS WITH SOME
CHANCE POPS AND MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ATTM. CAA WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 15 TO 20 DEGREE
RANGE OVERNIGHT.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
TWO ITEMS TO SPEAK OF DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST. FIRST AND REALLY
QUITE MINIMAL, A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY. THESE
ARE DRIVEN BY 850 CAA IN A HUMID ENVIRONMENT IN COMBINATION
WITH A DEPARTING SYSTEM WHOSE NORTHEASTERNMOST EDGE INTERSECTS
WITH FAR SOUTHEASTERN CWA. OUTSIDE OF THESE TWO "PRIMED" AREAS
FOR LIGHT SNOW, FLURRIES SHOULD BE COMMON THROUGHOUT THE DAY
GIVEN THE OVERALL CAA AND MOISTURE PROFILE. HAVE OCCASIONAL
FLURRIES THROUGH THE DAY WHERE NO WX WAS GIVEN OUTSIDE OF
REPORTABLE POPS. KEPT FLURRIES IN CENTRAL OHIO AND LOWER SCIOTO
VALLEY INTO THE EVENING BUT NOT TOO FAR PAST SUNSET. NO THREAT
FOR PRECIPITATION EXISTS OUTSIDE OF A SLIGHT CHANCE NEXT FRIDAY.
THE LARGER AND MOST PREVALENT FOCUS IN THIS PERIOD IS THE STRETCH OF
EXTENDED COLD AIR THAT WILL HANG OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. AN EXTREME COLD
WATCH IS BEING HOISTED FOR THE ENTIRE CWA FROM OVERNIGHT SUNDAY TO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXPECT NORTHERN CWA TO REACH -20 OR LOWER AND
SOUTHERN CWA TO BE SOUTH OF -15 DEGREES. LATEST MODEL RUN PUT THE
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES A LITTLE WARMER ON TUESDAY TO WHERE THIS -20/-15
CRITERIA IS BEING EXCEEDED. HOWEVER, THE APPARENT TEMPERATURE WILL NOT
WARM BY MUCH AND IT SHOULDN'T FEEL MUCH DIFFERENT FOR THAT BRIEF PERIOD
OF TIME THEY TIP OVER THE CRITERIA.
OTHERWISE, A DRY AND COLD PERIOD IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION. THROUGH AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY, APPARENT TEMPERATURES WILL MAX OUT IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS. THE HEAT WAVE COMES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS
THE APPARENT TEMPERATURES SOAR INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.
DELVING INTO HIGH TEMPERATURES WITHOUT WIND CHILL INVOLVED, SUNDAYS
READINGS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S WILL DROP TO THE SINGLE DIGITS/LOW TEENS
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. TEENS TO AROUND 20 ON WEDNESDAY WILL RISE TO
BETWEEN 27 AND 33, COOLEST IN THE NORTH.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD WILL TRANSITION TO MVFR,
AND EVENTUALLY IFR, PROGRESSIVELY FROM SW TO NE THROUGH 12Z,
WITH EVEN SOME LIFR CIGS POSSIBLE BETWEEN ABOUT 12Z-18Z.
THEREAFTER, CIGS WILL GO BACK TO IFR, AND EVENTUALLY MVFR, ONCE
AGAIN TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. MVFR/IFR VSBYS ARE EXPECTED
WITH THE RAPID COLUMN SATURATION AND PCPN BETWEEN ABOUT 10Z-15Z
BEFORE VSBYS GRADUALLY IMPROVE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. A RASN MIX
IS POSSIBLE AT NRN SITES DURING THAT 10Z-15Z TIME FRAME, BUT IS
MOST LIKELY AT KDAY FOR PERHAPS A FEW HOURS. DID NOT HAVE
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS JUNCTURE TO INCLUDE ALL SN IN THE FCST
FOR KDAY, BUT CERTAINLY A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD WILL BE POSSIBLE
AFTER DAYBREAK.
PCPN WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY PROGRESSIVELY FROM SW
TO NE BETWEEN 15Z-18Z, BECOMING MORE ISO AFTER 18Z. STILL COULD
SEE A FEW PATCHES OF FLURRIES OR LIGHT SHSN BY LATE AFTERNOON
ALONG THE SE-ADVANCING FRONT ITSELF, WHICH OF COURSE COULD LEAD
TO MORE BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN VSBYS.
STEADY S FLOW AT 10-12KTS WILL GO MORE OUT OF THE SSW AFTER 12Z
BEFORE ABRUPTLY CHANGING TO OUT OF THE NNW WITH THE FROPA
BETWEEN 18Z-22Z. SOME NNW GUSTS TO AROUND 20KTS ARE EXPECTED FOR
SEVERAL HOURS AFTER THE FROPA BEFORE NORTHERLY WINDS SUBSIDE TO
10KTS OR LESS BY 06Z SUNDAY. ADDITIONALLY, SW LLWS ON THE ORDER
OF 40-45KTS IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST 4-6 HOURS OF THE TAF
PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE INTO SUNDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-
070>074-077>082-088.
KY...EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080.
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL/MCGINNIS
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...KC
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