628
FXUS61 KILN 182009
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
309 PM EST SAT JAN 18 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING
LEADING TO FALLING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. SNOW AND SOME HEAVIER
SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC FRONT THAT
WILL REACH THE AREA BY THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. BITTERLY
COLD CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/
CONDITIONS INITIALLY DRY OUT TONIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT IS
PUSHING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO DROP THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT THANKS TO NORTHERLY
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT.
BY LATE OVERNIGHT, BANDED SNOWFALL IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP MAINLY SOUTH
AND EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE LOW AND
UPPER LEVEL FORCING PASSING TO OUR SOUTHEAST. MOST MESOSCALE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE FURTHEST NORTHWESTERN FRINGE OF THE LIGHT SNOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE MAY REACH INTO PARTS OF NORTHERN
KENTUCKY AND SOUTHERN OHIO. THE CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS THIS SETUP
WITH UP TO AROUND 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW BEING POSSIBLE IN AREAS NEAR
THE OHIO RIVER TO THE EAST OF CINCINNATI. THE BANDED SNOW MAY
PERSIST INTO PART OF SUNDAY MORNING AFTER SUNRISE. THE LIGHT SNOW
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME SLICK SPOTS ON AREA ROADWAYS IN NORTHERN
KENTUCKY AND SOUTHERN OHIO. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THE COUNTIES THAT ARE MOST LIKELY TO SEE ACCUMULATING
SNOW TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
THE WEATHER SETUP FOR SUNDAY REMAINS A BIT COMPLICATED AND
POTENTIALLY IMPACTFUL. AS MENTIONED IN THE NEAR TERM, A DISTURBANCE
WILL PASS BY TO THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS WHICH SHOULD
RESULT IN SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL IN PARTS OF NORTHERN KENTUCKY AND
SOUTHERN OHIO EAST OF CINCINNATI. FORECAST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE
FAIRLY LOW SINCE THE BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE REMAINS SHUNTED TO
THE SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER, SLICK SPOTS AND SOME TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES ARE
LIKELY WHERE SNOW FALLS IN THE MORNING SINCE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ACCUMULATIONS.
ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL DIVE INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY FROM THE NORTHWEST. SNOW SHOWERS, AND POSSIBLY SOME SNOW
SQUALLS, ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR JUST AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY.
THESE SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAVEL IMPACTS
SINCE THEY COULD BE HEAVY AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL
BELOW FREEZING AND DROPPING. IF TRAVELING DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING, PLEASE MONITOR THE FORECAST FOR UPDATES SINCE
THERE COULD BE RAPIDLY CHANGING ROAD CONDITIONS. THERE IS FAIRLY
GOOD MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING MODERATE ASCENT THROUGH A
SATURATED DGZ AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHICH SUGGESTS SQUALL POTENTIAL
DOES INDEED EXIST.
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT, SNOW SHOWERS COME TO AN END BEHIND THE FRONT AS
ARCTIC AIR RUSHES IN. FORECAST LOWS DROP TO NEAR OR BELOW ZERO FOR
ALL LOCATIONS WITH WIND CHILLS REACHING -5 TO -20 BY MONDAY MORNING.
PRECAUTIONS FOR VERY COLD AIR SHOULD TO BE TAKEN FOR ANYONE
VENTURING OUTSIDE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. AN EXTREME COLD
WATCH REMAINS IN PLACE SINCE FORECAST TEMPERATURES ARE TOO CLOSE TO
WARNING VS ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR A DECISION TO BE MADE THIS
EARLY. MORE DATA FOR THE WARNING/ADVISORY DECISION IS NEEDED IN
THE UPCOMING MODEL RUNS. EITHER WAY, THE KEY MESSAGE IS VERY
COLD CONDITIONS ARE ON THE WAY.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
A DRY FORECAST IS IN STORE FOR THIS PERIOD.
EXCEEDINGLY COLD TEMPERATURES FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY ARE THE
FOCUS OF THIS FORECAST. AN ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER
THE REGION WITH ONE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED NEARBY ON MONDAY,
AND A SECOND BECOMING ESTABLISHED OVER THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE RADIATIVE HEAT RELEASE UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERS WILL BE NOTABLE. AN EXTREME COLD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED AND
WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON, IN EFFECT FROM OVERNIGHT SUNDAY TO
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
A FLY IN THE OINTMENT OCCURS ON TUESDAY AS A WEAK BOUNDARY CROSSES
THE REGION, WARMING TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY AND PUSHING THEM ABOVE
WHAT WOULD BE EXPECTED TO BE FOUND IN A WARNING FOR EXCESSIVE COLD.
THIS WARMING SHOULD NOT BE ENOUGH TO CHANGE THE MESSAGING OF THE
COLD AIR THROUGH THESE THREE DAYS, HENCE THE CONTINUATION OF THE
WATCH AS ADDITIONAL FACTORS REMAIN IN PLAY.
THE CRITERIA AND EXPECTED LOW END APPARENT TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE
LOWEST ON MONDAY MORNING, WITH SLIGHTLY "WARMER" READINGS FOUND
WEDNESDAY MORNING. APPARENT TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTH WILL DROP TO
OR BELOW -20, AND IN THE SOUTH AT OR BELOW -15. WHILE MUCH OF THESE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN GROUPINGS MAY BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE
THRESHOLD VALUES, MESSAGING THE THREAT WILL LIKELY TRUMP THESE MINOR
DIFFERENCES ON SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING AND AGAIN TUES NIGHT/WED
MORNING. IN ADDITION, ONLY MINOR TEMPERATURE/WIND CHANGES COULD
RESULT IN A LARGE APPARENT T SWING FOR ANY LOCATIONS DURING THIS
TIME.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE LARGE IMPACTS DUE
TO THE COLD, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS ONLY MEDIUM IN SPECIFIC VALUES --
PARTICULARLY WHEN DEALING WITH WIND CHILLS (APPARENT TEMPERATURES)
DUE TO THOSE VALUES BEING DEPENDENT ON TWO OTHER ELEMENTS
(TEMPERATURES AND WIND SPEEDS). THE OTHER SOURCE OF UNCERTAINTY IS
THE STATE OF THE SNOW PACK, WHICH WILL DEFINITELY BE MODIFIED BY
ABOVE-FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND RAIN TODAY (SATURDAY), AND MAY BE
MODIFIED BY ADDITIONAL SNOW ON SUNDAY. WHEREVER THE SNOW PACK
REMAINS ROBUST AND/OR FRESHLY ADDED, THAT WILL DRIVE WHERE THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES RESIDE THIS COMING WEEK.
AS OF NOW, IT APPEARS THAT A VERY SLIGHT WARM UP COULD OCCUR FOR
LATER IN THE WEEK. BY LATER WEDNESDAY THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH
WILL PERMIT FLOW TO TURN SOUTHERLY, BRINGING IN WARMER AIR. A
STRONGER SIGNAL FOR WARMING IS SHOWING UP FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY,
WHEN TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE MAKE A RUN INTO THE 20S AND 30S.
POSSIBLY MORE NOTABLE IS THAT SINGLE DIGIT LOWS WILL RISE INTO THE
TEENS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL GUIDANCE ARE SHOWING IFR CEILINGS LIFTING TO
MVFR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WHICH IS A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN
ORIGINALLY FORECAST. ADDITIONALLY, PRECIPITATION HAS DISSIPATED SO
VFR VISIBILITIES ARE NOW PERSISTENT ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. MVFR
CEILINGS AND VFR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST AT KDAY, KCMH,
KLCK FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. MVFR CEILINGS MAY LOWER ALONG
WITH VISIBILITIES AT KCVG, KLUK, AND KILN AFTER 1000Z SUNDAY SINCE
LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER, PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE IS STILL
TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. FROM 1800Z SUNDAY-0000Z
MONDAY, SHOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AT ALL THE TAF SITES. SOME SNOW
SHOWERS COULD DROP CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES DRAMATICALLY FOR A
SHORT PERIODS OF TIME.
NORTHERLY/NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS PERSIST FOR THE TAF
PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-
070>074-077>082-088.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
OHZ073-074-079-081-082-088.
KY...EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR KYZ089>100.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
KYZ089-090-094>100.
IN...EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080.
SYNOPSIS...CAMPBELL
NEAR TERM...CAMPBELL
SHORT TERM...CAMPBELL
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...CAMPBELL
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