290
FXUS61 KILN 192046
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
346 PM EST SUN JAN 19 2025
SYNOPSIS
SNOW AND SOME HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH AN
ARCTIC FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP EAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING.
BITTERLY COLD CONDITIONS WILL THEN SETTLE IN TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK.
A SLIGHT WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WORKWEEK,
WITH MORE SEASONABLE AIR FILTERING BACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH RIDGING ALONG THE
WEST COAST AND A LONG WAVE TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. STRONG
AND SHARP PV ANOMALY PIVOTS ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES DEVELOPING. AS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT
SWEEPS EAST - GOOD SATURATION AND LIFT IN THE DGZ ZONE OCCURS
WITH A GOOD SIGNAL POINTING TO WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. RADAR AND MESOSCALE MODELS
SHOWING FOCUSED NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS THAT
MOVE EAST THRU AREA (20Z-00Z FROM WEST TO EAST). WILL SEE AN
INCREASED THREAT FOR SNOW SQUALLS INTO THE EVENING AS PAVEMENT
TEMPERATURES DROP AND WINDS INCREASE. LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES
WILL SUPPORT EFFICIENT SNOW ACCUMULATION ON ROADS WITH SNOWFALL
LESS THAN AN INCH. RAPID CHANGE IN VISIBILITY AND ROAD
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AND THEREFORE HAVE CONTINUED
HIGHLIGHTING THIS MESSAGE IN THE HWO AND WITH AN SPS. WILL
HIGHLIGHT INDIVIDUAL ENHANCED AREAS IN SNOW SQUALL WARNINGS.
AFTER THE EVENING SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALL ACTIVITY PUSHES OFF TO THE
EAST, THE ARCTIC AIR RUSHES IN, BRINGING AIR TEMPERATURES CLOSE
TO ZERO. SOME LOCATIONS WILL SEE LOWS SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
ZERO. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH WILL GUST TO 25-30 MPH THIS
EVENING AND THEN BECOME MORE WESTERLY AND DECREASE TO 10 TO 15
MPH OVERNIGHT.
THE COMBINATION OF THE COLD TEMPERATURES AND WINDS WILL CREATE
LOW WIND CHILL VALUES OF 15 TO 20 BELOW ACROSS THE NORTH AND 10
TO 15 BELOW ACROSS THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT. WILL CONTINUE THE COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY OVERNIGHT.
SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUES TO BE IN EFFECT THRU THE SHORT
TERM FORECAST PERIOD THRU 10 AM WEDNESDAY.
MID LEVEL LONG WAVE TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA MONDAY. HIGHS ON MONDAY
STRUGGLE TO REACH HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH TO THE MIDDLE
TEENS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES.
SHORTWAVE TO DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT MONDAY -
WHICH WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS. EXPECT LOWS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO NEAR ZERO. WIND CHILL READINGS BOTTOM OUT AT 10
TO 15 BELOW NORTH AND 5 TO 10 BELOW SOUTH.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
A COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ON TUESDAY AS
ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH MOVES INTO THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THE FORECAST
REMAINS DRY, SOME FLURRIES AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER CAN BE
ANTICIPATED AROUND FROPA. TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE ON
TUESDAY AND BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS KEEP WIND CHILLS NEAR OR BELOW
ZERO ALL DAY. THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP BELOW ZERO
AREAWIDE. DESPITE TEMPERATURES BEING THE COLDEST TUESDAY NIGHT, WIND
CHILLS DO NOT DROP TOO MUCH SINCE WINDS WILL BE WEAK UNDER THE HIGH.
IF VENTURING OUTSIDE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING, PREPARE FOR
VERY COLD TEMPERATURES.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY WHICH WILL CAUSE WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH. SOUTHERLY
WINDS ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE FROM THE BITTERLY COLD
CONDITIONS EARLIER IN THE WEEK ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES STILL REMAIN
BELOW LATE JANUARY AVERAGES. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MAY MOVE INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY WHICH COULD LEAD TO LOW END CHANCES FOR SNOW
DEVELOPING. DRY CONDITIONS AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AMPLIFIED MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH LONG WAVE TROF OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS. MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TO PIVOT THRU THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON THRU EARLY EVENING. THIS WILL COINCIDE WITH GOOD
SATURATION AND LIFT IN THE DGZ ZONE WITH A GOOD SIGNAL POINTING
TO WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY - INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY
OF SNOW SQUALLS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL PROGRESS WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING, RESULTING IN REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND GUSTY
WINDS. HAVE WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS WITH MVFR TO IFR
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS. VLIFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN SNOW SQUALL BUT THE IMPACT WOULD LIKELY BE FAIRLY
BRIEF IN NATURE - SO ALTHOUGH THIS AN IMPACTFUL THREAT HAVE NOT
INCLUDED THESE LOW CONDITIONS IN THE TAF FORECASTS AT THIS TIME.
AFTER THE SNOW SHOWERS SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST EARLY THIS EVENING
EXPECT CLOUDS TO BUMP UP TO VFR AND SCATTER OUT OVERNIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING.
NORTH WINDS AT 10-12KTS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AT 15-18KTS, WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 25KTS, WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE ARCTIC FRONT
(20Z-00Z FROM WEST TO EAST). WINDS WILL SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT
BECOMING WESTERLY AROUND 10-12KTS BY MONDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM MONDAY TO 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY
FOR OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-
077>082-088.
KY...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM MONDAY TO 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY
FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM MONDAY TO 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY
FOR INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080.
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...CAMPBELL
AVIATION...AR
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