666
FXUS61 KILN 192330
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
630 PM EST SUN JAN 19 2025
SYNOPSIS
SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH AN ARCTIC FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP
EAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. BITTERLY COLD CONDITIONS WILL
THEN SETTLE IN TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK. A SLIGHT WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WORKWEEK, WITH MORE SEASONABLE AIR
FILTERING BACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH RIDGING ALONG THE
WEST COAST AND A LONG WAVE TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. STRONG
AND SHARP PV ANOMALY PIVOTS ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES DEVELOPING. AS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT
SWEEPS EAST - GOOD SATURATION AND LIFT IN THE DGZ ZONE OCCURS
WITH A GOOD SIGNAL POINTING TO WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. RADAR AND MESOSCALE MODELS
SHOWING FOCUSED NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS THAT
MOVE EAST THRU AREA (20Z-00Z FROM WEST TO EAST). WILL SEE AN
INCREASED THREAT FOR SNOW SQUALLS INTO THE EVENING AS PAVEMENT
TEMPERATURES DROP AND WINDS INCREASE. LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES
WILL SUPPORT EFFICIENT SNOW ACCUMULATION ON ROADS WITH SNOWFALL
LESS THAN AN INCH. RAPID CHANGE IN VISIBILITY AND ROAD
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AND THEREFORE HAVE CONTINUED
HIGHLIGHTING THIS MESSAGE IN THE HWO AND WITH AN SPS. WILL
HIGHLIGHT INDIVIDUAL ENHANCED AREAS IN SNOW SQUALL WARNINGS.
AFTER THE EVENING SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALL ACTIVITY PUSHES OFF TO
THE EAST, THE ARCTIC AIR RUSHES IN, BRINGING AIR TEMPERATURES
CLOSE TO ZERO. SOME LOCATIONS WILL SEE LOWS SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW ZERO. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH WILL GUST TO 25-30 MPH
THIS EVENING AND THEN BECOME MORE WESTERLY AND DECREASE TO 10
TO 15 MPH OVERNIGHT.
THE COMBINATION OF THE COLD TEMPERATURES AND WINDS WILL CREATE
LOW WIND CHILL VALUES OF 15 TO 20 BELOW ACROSS THE NORTH AND 10
TO 15 BELOW ACROSS THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT. WILL CONTINUE THE COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY OVERNIGHT.
SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUES TO BE IN EFFECT THRU THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD THRU 10 AM WEDNESDAY.
MID LEVEL LONG WAVE TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA MONDAY. HIGHS ON MONDAY
STRUGGLE TO REACH HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH TO THE MIDDLE
TEENS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES.
SHORTWAVE TO DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT MONDAY -
WHICH WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS. EXPECT LOWS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO NEAR ZERO. WIND CHILL READINGS BOTTOM OUT AT 10
TO 15 BELOW NORTH AND 5 TO 10 BELOW SOUTH.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
A COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ON TUESDAY
AS ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH MOVES INTO THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THE
FORECAST REMAINS DRY, SOME FLURRIES AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER
CAN BE ANTICIPATED AROUND FROPA. TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL BELOW
AVERAGE ON TUESDAY AND BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS KEEP WIND CHILLS
NEAR OR BELOW ZERO ALL DAY. THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD ON
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO DROP BELOW ZERO AREAWIDE. DESPITE TEMPERATURES
BEING THE COLDEST TUESDAY NIGHT, WIND CHILLS DO NOT DROP TOO
MUCH SINCE WINDS WILL BE WEAK UNDER THE HIGH. IF VENTURING
OUTSIDE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING, PREPARE FOR VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY WHICH WILL CAUSE WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH.
SOUTHERLY WINDS ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE FROM THE BITTERLY
COLD CONDITIONS EARLIER IN THE WEEK ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES STILL
REMAIN BELOW LATE JANUARY AVERAGES. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MAY
MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY WHICH COULD LEAD TO LOW END
CHANCES FOR SNOW DEVELOPING. DRY CONDITIONS AND MODERATING
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AN ARCTIC FRONT WAS LOCATED OVER OUR EASTERN FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING. UNSTABLE AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT, ALONG WITH
SOME LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE, WERE BRINGING SNOW SHOWERS.
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WERE ALSO OCCURRING BEHIND THE FRONT IN
THE SHALLOW BUT STILL MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS WITH SOME POCKETS OF LIFR/VLIFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN AREAS OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 4 HOURS.
FOR WESTERN AREAS, VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LOCAL IFR
VISIBILITIES WILL PERSIST. AFTER MIDNIGHT, DRIER AIR WILL
EVENTUALLY ADVECT INTO THE REGION, ALLOWING FOR CLEARING SKIES.
HOWEVER, SOME SCATTERED FLURRIES WILL LINGER BEFORE THE CLEARING
TAKES PLACE. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST 10 TO 15 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KNOTS. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
WESTERLY, 8 TO 12 KNOTS BY 12Z MONDAY WITH LOCAL GUSTS NORTH OF
THE OHIO RIVER UP TO 20 KNOTS.
ON MONDAY, ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE OHIO
AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. SOME FEW CAA STRATOCUMULUS MAY LINGER,
BUT OVERALL MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE WEST
BETWEEN 8 AND 12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AGAIN UP TO 20 KNOTS NORTH OF
THE OHIO RIVER.
FOR MONDAY NIGHT, WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND BACK TO THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST. SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE
WEST OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM MONDAY TO 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY
FOR OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-
077>082-088.
KY...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM MONDAY TO 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY
FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM MONDAY TO 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY
FOR INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080.
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...CAMPBELL
AVIATION...HICKMAN
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