454
FXUS61 KILN 200238
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
938 PM EST SUN JAN 19 2025
SYNOPSIS
BITTERLY COLD CONDITIONS WILL SETTLE IN TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK.
A SLIGHT WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WORKWEEK,
WITH MORE SEASONABLE AIR FILTERING BACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/
AN ARCTIC FRONT HAS EXITED OUR EASTERN FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING. JUST SOME RESIDUAL FLURRIES AND ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS
REMAIN. AM EXPECTING SKIES TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT,
SO THAT SHOULD ALLOW ANY FLURRY ACTIVITY TO COME TO AN END BY
MORNING.
STIFF WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH COLD
TEMPERATURES TO PRODUCE WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY RANGE. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM 5 ABOVE TO 5 BELOW ZERO.
THIS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL VALUES BETWEEN 10 BELOW AND 20
BELOW ZERO.
SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUES TO BE IN EFFECT THRU THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD THRU 10 AM WEDNESDAY.
MID LEVEL LONG WAVE TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA MONDAY. HIGHS ON MONDAY
STRUGGLE TO REACH HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH TO THE MIDDLE
TEENS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES.
SHORTWAVE TO DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT MONDAY -
WHICH WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS. EXPECT LOWS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO NEAR ZERO. WIND CHILL READINGS BOTTOM OUT AT 10
TO 15 BELOW NORTH AND 5 TO 10 BELOW SOUTH.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
A COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ON TUESDAY
AS ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH MOVES INTO THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THE
FORECAST REMAINS DRY, SOME FLURRIES AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER
CAN BE ANTICIPATED AROUND FROPA. TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL BELOW
AVERAGE ON TUESDAY AND BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS KEEP WIND CHILLS
NEAR OR BELOW ZERO ALL DAY. THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD ON
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO DROP BELOW ZERO AREAWIDE. DESPITE TEMPERATURES
BEING THE COLDEST TUESDAY NIGHT, WIND CHILLS DO NOT DROP TOO
MUCH SINCE WINDS WILL BE WEAK UNDER THE HIGH. IF VENTURING
OUTSIDE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING, PREPARE FOR VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY WHICH WILL CAUSE WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH.
SOUTHERLY WINDS ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE FROM THE BITTERLY
COLD CONDITIONS EARLIER IN THE WEEK ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES STILL
REMAIN BELOW LATE JANUARY AVERAGES. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MAY
MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY WHICH COULD LEAD TO LOW END
CHANCES FOR SNOW DEVELOPING. DRY CONDITIONS AND MODERATING
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AN ARCTIC FRONT WAS LOCATED OVER OUR EASTERN FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING. UNSTABLE AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT, ALONG WITH
SOME LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE, WERE BRINGING SNOW SHOWERS.
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WERE ALSO OCCURRING BEHIND THE FRONT IN
THE SHALLOW BUT STILL MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS WITH SOME POCKETS OF LIFR/VLIFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN AREAS OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 4 HOURS.
FOR WESTERN AREAS, VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LOCAL IFR
VISIBILITIES WILL PERSIST. AFTER MIDNIGHT, DRIER AIR WILL
EVENTUALLY ADVECT INTO THE REGION, ALLOWING FOR CLEARING SKIES.
HOWEVER, SOME SCATTERED FLURRIES WILL LINGER BEFORE THE CLEARING
TAKES PLACE. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST 10 TO 15 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KNOTS. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
WESTERLY, 8 TO 12 KNOTS BY 12Z MONDAY WITH LOCAL GUSTS NORTH OF
THE OHIO RIVER UP TO 20 KNOTS.
ON MONDAY, ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE OHIO
AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. SOME FEW CAA STRATOCUMULUS MAY LINGER,
BUT OVERALL MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE WEST
BETWEEN 8 AND 12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AGAIN UP TO 20 KNOTS NORTH OF
THE OHIO RIVER.
FOR MONDAY NIGHT, WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND BACK TO THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST. SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE
WEST OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ026-034-
035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR INZ050-058-
059-066-073>075-080.
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN/AR
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN/AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...CAMPBELL
AVIATION...HICKMAN
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