753
FXUS61 KILN 200541
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1241 AM EST MON JAN 20 2025
SYNOPSIS
BITTERLY COLD CONDITIONS WILL SETTLE IN TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK.
A SLIGHT WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WORKWEEK,
WITH MORE SEASONABLE AIR FILTERING BACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
AN ARCTIC FRONT HAS EXITED OUR EASTERN FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING. JUST SOME RESIDUAL FLURRIES AND ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS
REMAIN. AM EXPECTING SKIES TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT,
SO THAT SHOULD ALLOW ANY FLURRY ACTIVITY TO COME TO AN END BY
MORNING.
STIFF WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH COLD
TEMPERATURES TO PRODUCE WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY RANGE. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM 5 ABOVE TO 5 BELOW ZERO.
THIS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL VALUES BETWEEN 10 BELOW AND 20
BELOW ZERO.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/
A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUES TO BE IN EFFECT THRU THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD THRU 10 AM WEDNESDAY.
MID LEVEL LONG WAVE TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA MONDAY. HIGHS ON MONDAY
STRUGGLE TO REACH HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH TO THE MIDDLE
TEENS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES.
SHORTWAVE TO DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT MONDAY -
WHICH WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS. EXPECT LOWS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO NEAR ZERO. WIND CHILL READINGS BOTTOM OUT AT 10
TO 15 BELOW NORTH AND 5 TO 10 BELOW SOUTH.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
A COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ON TUESDAY
AS ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH MOVES INTO THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THE
FORECAST REMAINS DRY, SOME FLURRIES AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER
CAN BE ANTICIPATED AROUND FROPA. TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL BELOW
AVERAGE ON TUESDAY AND BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS KEEP WIND CHILLS
NEAR OR BELOW ZERO ALL DAY. THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD ON
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO DROP BELOW ZERO AREAWIDE. DESPITE TEMPERATURES
BEING THE COLDEST TUESDAY NIGHT, WIND CHILLS DO NOT DROP TOO
MUCH SINCE WINDS WILL BE WEAK UNDER THE HIGH. IF VENTURING
OUTSIDE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING, PREPARE FOR VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY WHICH WILL CAUSE WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH.
SOUTHERLY WINDS ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE FROM THE BITTERLY
COLD CONDITIONS EARLIER IN THE WEEK ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES STILL
REMAIN BELOW LATE JANUARY AVERAGES. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MAY
MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY WHICH COULD LEAD TO LOW END
CHANCES FOR SNOW DEVELOPING. DRY CONDITIONS AND MODERATING
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
CONDITIONS ARE PRIMARILY VFR AREA-WIDE, ALTHOUGH SOME PATCHES OF
MVFR CLOUDS/CIGS CONTINUE TO PERCOLATE IN THE CAA/STRATOCU
REGIME. MOST SITES MAY MEANDER PERIODICALLY BACK AND FORTH
BETWEEN SKC AND SCT/BKN VFR CLOUDS THROUGH 12Z, BUT THERE SHOULD
BE PROGRESSIVELY MORE CLEAR SKIES AS WE PROGRESS FURTHER INTO
THE DAYTIME PERIOD AS THE DRIER AIR SETTLES INTO THE REGION.
ANYWHERE THERE IS SOME PRONOUNCED CLOUD COVER, THERE IS LIKELY
TO BE A FEW FLURRIES AS WELL. IF THE ACTIVITY IS STEADY ENOUGH,
IT COULD BRIEFLY REDUCE VSBYS, BUT HAVE KEPT THE INCLUSION OF
SHSN AND VSBY REDUCTIONS OUT OF THE FCSTS FOR NOW GIVEN THE
EXPECTED RELATIVELY SMALL SPATIAL/TEMPORAL EVOLUTION.
A FEW/SCT VFR CU WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY, BUT THE AIR
MAY END UP BEING DRY ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
THROUGH THE DAYTIME. SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL WORK BACK IN
FROM THE W TOWARD 06Z TUESDAY AND BEYOND.
WNW WINDS OF 12-15KTS, WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20KTS, WILL SLOWLY
SUBSIDE THROUGH 09Z, EVENTUALLY GOING MORE WESTERLY AT AROUND
10-12KTS THROUGH THE DAYTIME. COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS TO 15-18KTS
THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE WINDS GO MORE OUT OF THE WSW AT LESS THAN
10KTS LATE IN THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ026-034-
035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR INZ050-058-
059-066-073>075-080.
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN/AR
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN/AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...CAMPBELL
AVIATION...KC
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