117
FXUS61 KILN 201120
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
620 AM EST MON JAN 20 2025
SYNOPSIS
BITTERLY COLD CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING, WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK. A
SLIGHT WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WORKWEEK,
WITH MORE SEASONABLE AIR FILTERING BACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
THE MUCH ADVERTISED ARCTIC AIR HAS FILTERED INTO THE REGION,
WITH CURRENT TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO.
TEMPS AROUND DAYBREAK WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO ZERO, OR PERHAPS
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW ZERO, FOR MANY LOCALES, ESPECIALLY NEAR/N
OF THE OH RVR. STEADY WNW FLOW THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT AT 12-15 MPH, WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH, WILL CREATE
WIND CHILL VALUES VERY CLOSE TO WARNING CRITERIA (-15F NEAR/S OF
OH RVR AND -20F NEAR/N OF I-70) BEFORE WINDS SUBSIDE A BIT
TOWARD SUNRISE.
THE ONGOING FCST REMAINS LARGELY ON TRACK IN TERMS OF TEMPS/WIND
CHILLS, WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT SEVERAL SPOTS WILL BE VERY
CLOSE TO WARNING CRITERIA THROUGH DAYBREAK. THE MOST LIKELY
OUTCOME WILL BE MEETING WARNING CRITERIA IN ANY ONE LOCATION
FOR PERHAPS ONLY AN HOUR OR TWO, IF AT ALL, WITH MOST LOCALES
STAYING FIRMLY IN ADVISORY RANGE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
AFTER STARTING THE DAY NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO, TEMPS WILL
REBOUND INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO (N OF I-70) TO THE
LOWER/MID TEENS NEAR/S OF THE OH RVR AMIDST MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
TODAY.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/
THERE IS A FAIRLY CONSISTENT SIGNAL FOR A SLIGHTLY "WARMER"
SETUP TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY, WHERE SOME LOCALES MAY NOT
EVEN REACH ADVISORY (-5F NEAR/S OF OH RVR AND -10F NEAR/N OF
I-70) CRITERIA, OWING TO LIGHTER WINDS AND SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPS. THIS BEING SAID, IT WILL STILL BE (AND FEEL) QUITE COLD,
SO WILL KEEP COLD WEATHER ADVISORY GOING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS IS WITHOUT INTRODUCING A DISCONTINUITY DUE TO
TUESDAY'S SLIGHTLY "WARMER" SETUP. WE WANT TO CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT THAT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THIS PERIOD THROUGH
MIDWEEK WILL FEATURE LARGE IMPACTS DUE TO THE COLD CONDITIONS,
THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS ONLY MEDIUM IN SPECIFIC VALUES FOR ONE
LOCATION THROUGH TIME, PARTICULARLY WHEN DEALING WITH WIND
CHILLS DUE TO ITS DEPENDENCE ON TWO OTHER ELEMENTS (TEMPS/WIND
SPEEDS).
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE LATE AHEAD OF THE NEXT DISTURBANCE WHICH WILL BRING
A REINFORCING DOSE OF ARCTIC AIR BACK INTO THE REGION TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE LONGWAVE TROF ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE ERN CONUS WILL DIG BACK
INTO THE OH VLY ONCE AGAIN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH MUCH
COLDER AIR SET TO FILTER BACK INTO THE REGION BY TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS DISTURBANCE, GIVEN THE VERY COLD
AIR ALREADY IN PLACE, COULD PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH FORCING AMIDST A
MEAGER MOISTURE PROFILE TO GENERATE ADDITIONAL SCATTERED FLURRY
OR VERY LIGHT SHSN ACTIVITY TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL/SOUTH-CENTRAL OH AND NE KY MID AFTERNOON, WHERE A
DUSTING TO PERHAPS A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
BUT THE SFC HIGH WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA BY TUESDAY
EVENING, SHUNTING ANY LIGHT SHSN ACTIVITY TO THE E BY SUNSET.
TUESDAY IS GOING TO BE A TRICKY DAY FROM A TEMP PERSPECTIVE AS
THE FRONT WILL ALREADY BE ENTERING PARTS OF EC IN AND WC OH
EARLY IN THE MORNING, MEANING THAT TEMPS IN THESE AREAS MAY NOT
REBOUND MUCH DURING THE DAY (GENERALLY STAYING IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO). FURTHER TO THE SE, HOWEVER, ENOUGH DIURNAL
WARMING AHEAD OF THE FROPA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON MAY ALLOW
TEMPS TO REACH INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S, PARTICULARLY
ACROSS N/NE KY AND THE LOWER SCIOTO VALLEY. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A
~15 DEGREE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE
STRONGER CAA OVERSPREADS THE ENTIRETY OF THE AREA BY LATE IN THE
DAY, SENDING TEMPS DOWNWARD ONCE AGAIN THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
ON TUESDAY EVENING, AN AREA OF ARCTIC SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
CENTERED NEAR WESTERN KENTUCKY, MOVING ENE OVER THE COURSE OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS SURFACE HIGH WILL REPRESENT THE FINAL STRETCH
OF THE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES, WITH THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY
REMAINING IN EFFECT THROUGH 10AM WEDNESDAY MORNING.
OUT OF THE ENTIRE COLD STRETCH THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THIS WEEK,
THE ACTUAL TEMPERATURE VALUES ON WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY BE
THE COLDEST. AS THE SURFACE HIGH MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH TO THE
AREA, WINDS WILL BECOME VERY LIGHT, WITH CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
LEADING TO IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING LOOK TO BE BELOW ZERO FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST AREA, WITH SOME VALUES APPROACHING -10F IN OUTLYING
LOCATIONS (PARTICULARLY IN CENTRAL OHIO). DESPITE THE LIGHTER WINDS,
WIND CHILLS MAY AGAIN APPROACH -20F IN THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE ILN
FORECAST AREA. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT AS THE HIGH MOVES TO THE
EAST, THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS AFTER 06Z, AND
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MIN TEMPS MAY OCCUR CLOSER TO 09Z RATHER
THAN 12Z. HOWEVER, EVEN IF TEMPERATURES RISE A FEW DEGREES BETWEEN
09Z AND 12Z, WIND SPEEDS WILL ALSO BE INCREASING, LEADING TO WIND
CHILLS THAT WILL REMAIN QUITE COLD. EXACT WIND CHILL VALUES MAY VARY
A BIT FROM PLACE TO PLACE, SO WHILE SPECIFIC MIN TEMPS AND WIND
CHILL VALUES WEDNESDAY MORNING MAY VARY, THE OVERALL MESSAGE
REGARDING THE DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES REMAINS VALID. IT IS NOT
IMPOSSIBLE THAT A FEW SPOTS COULD END UP NEAR EXTREME COLD WARNING
CRITERIA (-15F IN THE SOUTH, -20F IN THE NORTH) BUT CONFIDENCE IN
THIS OCCURRING IS LOW AS OF NOW.
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT WARM UP ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WITH A WARM
ADVECTION PATTERN KICKING IN ON THURSDAY, AND THEN MORE OF A NEUTRAL
PATTERN OCCURRING IN WEAKER FLOW ON FRIDAY. THOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE
VERY LIMITED, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MAY PRODUCE SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP A BIT MORE OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA EXPECTED TO GET ABOVE FREEZING ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. PREDICTABILITY IS LOW, BUT SOME ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION MAY BEGIN BY SUNDAY.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
CONDITIONS ARE PRIMARILY VFR AREA-WIDE, ALTHOUGH SOME ISO
PATCHES OF MVFR CLOUDS/CIGS CONTINUE TO PERCOLATE IN THE
CAA/STRATOCU REGIME. MOST SITES HAVE GONE CLEAR EARLY THIS
MORNING, BUT THERE WILL LIKELY BE FEW/SCT BORDERLINE MVFR/VFR
STRATOCU THAT REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON, PARTICULARLY FOR
SOUTHERN SITES. SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL WORK BACK IN FROM THE
W TOWARD 06Z TUESDAY AND BEYOND, WITH VFR CIGS BEGINNING TO
OVERSPREAD THE AREA ONCE AGAIN TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.
WESTERLY WINDS AT AROUND 10-12KTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
DAYTIME. COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS TO 15-18KTS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
WINDS GO MORE OUT OF THE WSW AT LESS THAN 10KTS LATE IN THE
PERIOD. SW WINDS WILL GO BACK MORE WESTERLY AFTER THE PASSAGE OF
THE FRONT TOWARD/AFTER 12Z TUESDAY.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ026-034-
035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR INZ050-058-
059-066-073>075-080.
SYNOPSIS...KC
NEAR TERM...KC
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...HATZOS
AVIATION...KC
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