072
FXUS61 KILN 152344
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
644 PM EST SAT FEB 15 2025
SYNOPSIS
A STRENGTHENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AND WILL THEN CROSS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES AHEAD OF THE LOW WITH
COLDER AIR, GUSTY WINDS AND SOME SNOW OCCURRING ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE LOW ON SUNDAY.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/
THERE ARE SEVERAL WEATHER HAZARDS TO FOCUS ON TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.
DYNAMIC MID LEVEL ENERGY WILL PERTURB AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
TO OUR SOUTHWEST, WHICH WILL DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS/RIPPLES
NORTHEAST ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT.
FIRST OFF, THERE WILL BE SOME FOG POTENTIAL, WHICH MAY BECOME
DENSE THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE WINDS
BEGIN TO INCREASE AS THE LOW ENTERS OUR REGION. THIS HAS BEEN
HANDLED BY AN SPS. WE WILL MONITOR OBSERVATIONS SHOULD A DENSE
FOG ADVISORY BE NEEDED.
FOR TONIGHT, COPIOUS MOISTURE WILL FOCUS/STREAM INTO THE AREA
FROM THE SOUTHWEST ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WITH
THE DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. THE HEAVIEST PCPN IN THE
FORM OF RAIN IS STILL EXPECTED WHERE THE CURRENT FLOOD WATCH IS
LOCATED (GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER). THIS IS
WHERE 2 TO PERHAPS 4 INCHES OF RAIN MAY FALL OVERNIGHT. THIS MAY
LEAD TO OVERLAND FLOODING, AND EVENTUALLY THE POTENTIAL
FLOODING OF CREEKS, STREAMS, AND MAIN STEM RIVERS. AS THE LOW
DEEPENS, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE, AND EVENTUALLY
MUCH COLDER AIR TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL BEGIN TO FUNNEL IN. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW AN AREA OF DEFORMATION DEVELOPING ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE LOW. THIS FOCUS WILL BE WHERE RAIN TRANSITIONS OVER
TO A PERIOD OF SNOW WHICH IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR FROM WEST TO EAST
FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE MAY
OUTRUN WARMER AIR ALOFT AT FIRST, RESULTING IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF
A WINTRY MIX, ESPECIALLY ACROSS WEST CENTRAL OHIO. HAVE HOISTED
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR PARTS OF OUR WESTERN CWFA WHERE
SNOW AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 4 INCHES (LIGHT GLAZE OF ICE
IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO). WITH WINDS INCREASING, THE SLUSHY SNOW
WILL LIKELY FREEZE AS TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW FREEZING, SO THIS
COULD POSE TRAVEL HAZARDS ON UNTREATED SURFACES. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 40S
SOUTHEAST.
SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/
PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW DURING THE MORNING FROM
WEST TO EAST AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND TRACKS NORTHEAST
OF THE REGION. AGAIN, SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 4
INCHES (HIGHEST IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO) IN THE ADVISORY AREA. WITH
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SOME MIXING, WINDS MAY GUST UP TO
40 MPH, WHICH WILL LOWER VISIBILITIES IN THE FALLING SNOW. BY
AFTERNOON, SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION
OVER TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES AS CAA CONTINUES,
PRODUCING STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AS THE COLDER AIR FLOWS OVER
THE GREAT LAKES. THERE COULD BE SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WITH
THE SNOW SHOWERS AS THEY WILL BE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL DURING THE DAY.
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY NIGHT UNTIL
DEEPER MOISTURE AND FORCING EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND
EAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST WILL BE BUILDING EAST
TOWARD OUR REGION. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS
NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER TEENS SOUTHEAST. WINDS WILL BE DIMINISH,
BUT THEY WILL STILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME COLD WIND
CHILLS BY MONDAY MORNING. THESE WILL RANGE FROM NEAR -10
NORTHWEST TO THE SINGLE DIGITS SOUTHEAST.
ON MONDAY, ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
SOUTHEAST INTO OUR REGION. CAA CLOUDS WILL LINGER IN THE EAST
WITH SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM THE WEST. HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TEENS NORTH TO THE MID/UPPER 20S FAR
SOUTH.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
ON MONDAY EVENING, A GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL EXIST
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS. THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BE ON THE
SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE, WHICH
WILL BE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. OVER THE FOLLOWING
COUPLE DAYS, THIS HIGH WILL DRIFT INTO THE PLAINS STATES,
WEAKENING SOMEWHAT AS IT DOES. REGARDLESS OF ITS STRENGTH, IT
WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A VERY COLD AIR MASS, EVEN ON ITS
SOUTHEASTERN AND EASTERN EXTENT IN THE ILN CWA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL, AND BELOW
FREEZING, THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND LIKELY INTO THE
WEEKEND.
THE MAIN CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION THIS COMING WEEK WILL BE
DURING A STRETCH FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING,
WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES APPEARING TO BE DURING THE FIRST PART
OF WEDNESDAY. THERE MAY ACTUALLY BE TWO SEPARATE WAVES MOVING
EASTWARD THROUGH THE QUICK UPPER FLOW, WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW
PERSISTING INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WITH COLD TEMPERATURES, SNOW
RATIOS MAY BE HIGH, BUT THE TRANSIENT AND QUICK-MOVING FORCING
IS KEEPING CONFIDENCE LOW IN ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS.
THERE IS DEFINITELY THE POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE INCHES, AND MAYBE
AN OUTSIDE CHANCE AT SOME HIGHER NUMBERS, BUT MESOSCALE DETAILS
AND THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE(S) WILL STILL NEED SOME
REFINEMENT IN FUTURE FORECASTS.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS (DUE TO BR/FG/DZ) CONTINUE ACROSS THE
AREA, WITH VSBYS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO IFR ONCE THE STEADY RA
BEGINS. THAT BEING SAID, LIFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST
THE FIRST HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD, WITH STEADY WIDESPREAD RA
AREA-WIDE. THERE WILL BE PATCHES OF HEAVY RA FOR
KCVG/KLUK/KILN, PARTICULARLY BETWEEN ABOUT 03Z-09Z, WHICH COULD
LEAD TO BRIEF LIFR VSBYS ONCE AGAIN. RA INTENSITY WILL DECREASE
BETWEEN ABOUT 09Z-11Z LOCALLY BEFORE A NARROW BAND OF MIXED
WINTRY PRECIP, WHICH WILL QUICKLY CHANGE TO SN, PIVOTS TO THE E
THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN 12Z-16Z. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF/NARROW
WINDOW FOR STEADY MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SN, WHICH WILL LAST
FOR NO LONGER THAN ~2 HOURS AT ANY ONE LOCATION. LIFR TO VLIFR
VSBYS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS NARROW BAND OF SN
BEFORE RETURNING TO PREVAILING VFR FOR THE AFTERNOON.
THE BANDED SN WILL PIVOT QUICKLY TO THE E OF THE LOCAL AREA BY
THE AFTERNOON, WITH ISO/SCT SHSN DEVELOPING AND BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD IN THE CAA REGIME.
BRIEF VSBY RESTRICTIONS CAN BE EXPECTED YET AGAIN IN THE MOST
PERSISTENT AND HEAVIEST SHSN ACTIVITY, BUT COVERAGE WILL BE
ISO/SCT AT BEST.
CIGS WILL TRANSITION FROM LIFR TO IFR PAST 15Z, EVENTUALLY GOING
TO MVFR FOR THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT NE WINDS AT 5KTS OR LESS WILL
GO MORE OUT OF THE N PAST 06Z, INCREASING ABRUPTLY AS THE SFC
LOW GOES BY TO THE E IN THE SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD AROUND DAYBREAK.
NW WINDS AT 15-20KTS, WITH GUSTS TO 25-35KTS, ARE EXPECTED PAST
12Z-15Z, CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...WIND GUSTS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING, BUT MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY. MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
OHZ034-035-042-043-060.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
OHZ026-044>046-051>053-061-062-070>072-077-078.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR OHZ073-074-077>082-
088.
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
KYZ089>096.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
INZ050-058-059.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
INZ066-073>075-080.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR INZ073>075-080.
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...HATZOS
AVIATION...KC
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