572
FXUS61 KILN 161440
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
940 AM EST SUN FEB 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO A PERIOD OF SNOW THIS MORNING, LEADING
TO SOME SNOW ACCUMULATIONS, ESPECIALLY ON GRASSY AND ELEVATED
SURFACES. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL THEN DEVELOP AND LINGER
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS, WITH MUCH COLDER AIR FILTERING INTO
THE REGION. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ON TAP FOR MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK, WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW
MIDWEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE ON THE BACK SIDE OF DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL TRANSITION FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS OUR REGION FROM NOW INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING IN THE CAA. AND WITH GUSTY
WINDS UP TO 40 MPH, THIS WILL RESULT IN SLUSHY ACCUMULATIONS
THAT MAY ICE UP ON UNTREATED ROADS, ESPECIALLY BRIDGES AND
OVERPASSES. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 3
INCHES. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM
FOR THE ENTIRE REGION. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BRIEF LULL IN PCPN
COVERAGE BEHIND THE MAIN SYNOPTIC DEFORMATION ZONE BEFORE MID
LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AND CAA OFF THE GREAT LAKES ALLOW SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. THESE SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY PERSIST
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WE WILL DETERMINE IF THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY WILL REMAIN AND PERHAPS GET EXTENDED A LITTLE LONGER AS
NEW MODEL RUNS ARE ANALYZED, OR IF A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
WILL REPLACE IT.
SINCE ADDITIONAL RUNOFF FROM RAINFALL HAS PRETTY MUCH ENDED,
HAVE CANCELLED THE FLOOD WATCH FOR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. FLOODING
OF CREEKS, STREAMS, AND RIVERS WILL PERSIST FROM RECENT
RAINFALL.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION --->
AS THE SYSTEM DEEPENS AND THE SFC LOW CENTER PULLS TO OUR E,
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN, AND EVENTUALLY MUCH COLDER
AIR TO OUR NE WILL BEGIN TO FILTER INTO THE AREA AROUND/AFTER
DAYBREAK. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A DEFORMATION AXIS OF
PRECIP DEVELOPING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW. WITH
THE CAA AND THE PIVOTING DEFORMATION BAND, RA WILL MIX WITH, AND
CHANGE TO SNOW FROM W TO E THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. ALTHOUGH
A BRIEF PERIOD OF FZRA/IP CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS THE COLD AIR AT
THE SFC OUTPACES THE CAA ALOFT, EXPECT THAT THE PRIMARY PTYPES
WILL BE RA, THEN SN. HAVE CONTINUED THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES FOR THE WRN 3/4 OF THE ILN FA WHERE SNOW AMOUNTS WILL
RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES. SOME ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 3" WILL BE
POSSIBLE FROM WC THROUGH NRN PARTS OF CENTRAL OH WHERE THE
HEAVIEST RATES MAY PERSIST A BIT LONGER. HOWEVER, MOST SPOTS
WILL SEE 1-2", ESPECIALLY ON GRASSY/ELEVATED SURFACES. HOWEVER,
THERE IS SIGNAL FOR SOME HEAVIER (ALBEIT BRIEF) SNOW RATES, SO
UNTREATED SURFACES, INCLUDING ROADS, MAY BRIEFLY GET COVERED
WITH SNOW BEFORE SOME MELTING OCCURS ONCE THE LIGHTER SNOW RATES
EVOLVE OR THE SNOW COMES TO AN END. BUT... WITH COLDER TEMPS
COMING IN, THERE MAY BE SOME REFREEZE CONCERNS, EVEN WITH GUSTY
WNW WINDS, SO THIS COULD POSE TRAVEL HAZARDS ON UNTREATED
SURFACES INTO THE AFTERNOON.
ONCE THE STEADY/NARROW BAND OF SN EXITS TO THE E, ISO/SCT SHSN
AND FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE AFTERNOON AMIDST STEADY OR
SLOWLY-FALLING TEMPS THROUGH THE LOWER 30S AND UPPER 20S. THIS
WILL OCCUR WITH WNW OF 15-20KTS, AND GUSTS TO AROUND 30-35KTS,
MAKING FOR A VERY BLUSTERY/WINTRY AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL LINGER INTO TONIGHT UNTIL THE
DEEPER MOISTURE AND FORCING EVENTUALLY SHIFT OUT OF THE LOCAL
AREA TOWARD/BEYOND MIDNIGHT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION AS WE PROGRESS INTO THE DAYTIME MONDAY.
VERY COLD AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA TONIGHT, WITH TEMPS
BOTTOMING OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS (WC OH) TO THE UPPER TEENS
(NE KY/LOWER SCIOTO VALLEY). ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING,
BUT THEY WILL STILL BE STEADY ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME COLD WIND
CHILLS BY MONDAY MORNING. THESE WILL RANGE FROM AROUND -10F IN
WC OH TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO SE OF I-71. WILL MENTION
THE NEAR-ADVISORY APPARENT TEMPS (FOR BOTH TONIGHT AND MONDAY
NIGHT) IN THE HWO.
FOR THE DAYTIME MONDAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
INTO OUR REGION. CAA CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON
BEFORE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS ARRIVES AGAIN FROM THE W LATE IN
THE DAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TEENS (WC OH AND EC IN)
TO THE UPPER 20S IN THE LOWER SCIOTO VALLEY/NE KY.
LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO IN WC OH AND EC IN TO THE MID TEENS IN THE LOWER SCIOTO
VALLEY/NE KY. THIS WILL ONCE AGAIN YIELD MIN APPARENT TEMPS
BETWEEN -5F AND -10F IN NW PARTS OF THE ILN FA.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
BY TUESDAY INTO MIDWEEK, AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL SETTLE INTO THE
ERN CONUS, WITH ZONAL MIDLEVEL FLOW EVOLVING AS A TROF DIGS
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. AS SUCH, TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
THE MAIN CHANCE FOR PRECIP THIS WEEK WILL BE DURING A STRETCH
FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING, WITH THE GREATEST
CHANCES APPEARING TO BE DURING THE FIRST PART OF WEDNESDAY AS A
MIDLEVEL DISTURBANCE RIPPLING THROUGH THE FLOW ALLOWS FOR A WEAK
SFC LOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SE CONUS. WITH INCREASING
LIFT/MOISTURE OVERSPREADING A SUFFICIENTLY-COLD AIRMASS,
WIDESPREAD LIGHT SN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SRN OH VLY
INTO THE TN VLY FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
THERE MAY ACTUALLY BE TWO SEPARATE WAVES MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH
THE QUICK UPPER FLOW, WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW PERSISTING INTO
THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE DIGGING OF A DEEP MIDLEVEL LOW INTO
THE REGION.
WITH COLD TEMPS AND A SUPPORTIVE VERTICAL THERMAL PROFILE, SNOW
RATIOS MAY BE WELL ABOVE CLIMO (POTENTIALLY AS HIGH AS 15:1),
BUT THE TRANSIENT AND QUICK-MOVING FORCING IS CONTRIBUTING TO
LOWER CONFIDENCE REGARDING SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL.
THERE IS DEFINITELY THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION (WHICH SEEMS LIKELY AT THIS JUNCTURE FOR LOCALES
NEAR/S OF THE OH RVR), AS WELL AS IMPACTFUL COMMUTES WEDNESDAY
(AM AND PM) AND THURSDAY (AM), BUT DETAILS AND THE EXACT TRACK
OF THE SHORTWAVE(S) WILL STILL NEED SOME REFINEMENT IN FUTURE
FORECASTS.
A VERY COLD AIRMASS WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE MODERATING SUBTLY INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.
AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
BEGINNING OF THE TAF PERIOD AS A BAND OF SNOW MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. ONCE THIS PASSES, CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT TO MVFR
WITH VISIBILITIES BECOMING UNRESTRICTED. MVFR CEILINGS WILL THEN
PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE
GUSTING TO AROUND 30 KT THROUGH THE DAY AND THEN GRADUALLY
DIMINISH.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY. MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ026-
034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
KYZ089>100.
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR INZ050-
058-059-066-073>075-080.
SYNOPSIS...KC/HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...KC/HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page