632
FXUS61 KILN 161809
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
109 PM EST SUN FEB 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
AND WILL THEN LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS, WITH MUCH COLDER
AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ON
TAP FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK, WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME
ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW MIDWEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
SYNOPTIC WIDESPREAD SNOW WILL SHIFT EAST OUT OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. THEREAFTER, CYCLONIC FLOW AND CAA WILL STEEPEN LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES, ALLOWING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS
TO DEVELOP. THESE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING.
SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND A QUICK
BURST OF HEAVIER SNOW. ALTHOUGH AN INCH OR LESS OF ADDITIONAL
SNOW ACCUMULATION IS FORECAST, GIVEN FALLING TEMPERATURES (BELOW
FREEZING), AND WIND GUSTS IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE, CONDITIONS
WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO KEEP SOME ROADWAYS SLICK/ICY IF NOT
TREATED. AS A RESULT, HAVE EXTENDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
FOR THE ENTIRE REGION UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS --->
MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE ON THE BACK SIDE OF DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL TRANSITION FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS OUR REGION FROM NOW INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING IN THE CAA. AND WITH GUSTY
WINDS UP TO 40 MPH, THIS WILL RESULT IN SLUSHY ACCUMULATIONS
THAT MAY ICE UP ON UNTREATED ROADS, ESPECIALLY BRIDGES AND
OVERPASSES. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 3
INCHES. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM
FOR THE ENTIRE REGION. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BRIEF LULL IN PCPN
COVERAGE BEHIND THE MAIN SYNOPTIC DEFORMATION ZONE BEFORE MID
LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AND CAA OFF THE GREAT LAKES ALLOW SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. THESE SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY PERSIST
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WE WILL DETERMINE IF THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY WILL REMAIN AND PERHAPS GET EXTENDED A LITTLE LONGER AS
NEW MODEL RUNS ARE ANALYZED, OR IF A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
WILL REPLACE IT.
SINCE ADDITIONAL RUNOFF FROM RAINFALL HAS PRETTY MUCH ENDED,
HAVE CANCELLED THE FLOOD WATCH FOR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. FLOODING
OF CREEKS, STREAMS, AND RIVERS WILL PERSIST FROM RECENT
RAINFALL.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL LINGER INTO TONIGHT UNTIL THE
DEEPER MOISTURE AND FORCING EVENTUALLY SHIFT OUT OF THE LOCAL
AREA TOWARD/BEYOND MIDNIGHT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION AS WE PROGRESS INTO THE DAYTIME MONDAY.
VERY COLD AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA TONIGHT, WITH TEMPS
BOTTOMING OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS (WC OH) TO THE UPPER TEENS
(NE KY/LOWER SCIOTO VALLEY). ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING,
BUT THEY WILL STILL BE STEADY ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME COLD WIND
CHILLS BY MONDAY MORNING. THESE WILL RANGE FROM AROUND -10F IN
WC OH TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO SE OF I-71. WILL MENTION
THE NEAR-ADVISORY APPARENT TEMPS (FOR BOTH TONIGHT AND MONDAY
NIGHT) IN THE HWO.
FOR THE DAYTIME MONDAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
INTO OUR REGION. CAA CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON
BEFORE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS ARRIVES AGAIN FROM THE W LATE IN
THE DAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TEENS (WC OH AND EC IN)
TO THE UPPER 20S IN THE LOWER SCIOTO VALLEY/NE KY.
LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO IN WC OH AND EC IN TO THE MID TEENS IN THE LOWER SCIOTO
VALLEY/NE KY. THIS WILL ONCE AGAIN YIELD MIN APPARENT TEMPS
BETWEEN -5F AND -10F IN NW PARTS OF THE ILN FA.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
BY TUESDAY INTO MIDWEEK, AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL SETTLE INTO THE
ERN CONUS, WITH ZONAL MIDLEVEL FLOW EVOLVING AS A TROF DIGS
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. AS SUCH, TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
THE MAIN CHANCE FOR PRECIP THIS WEEK WILL BE DURING A STRETCH
FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING, WITH THE GREATEST
CHANCES APPEARING TO BE DURING THE FIRST PART OF WEDNESDAY AS A
MIDLEVEL DISTURBANCE RIPPLING THROUGH THE FLOW ALLOWS FOR A WEAK
SFC LOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SE CONUS. WITH INCREASING
LIFT/MOISTURE OVERSPREADING A SUFFICIENTLY-COLD AIRMASS,
WIDESPREAD LIGHT SN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SRN OH VLY
INTO THE TN VLY FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
THERE MAY ACTUALLY BE TWO SEPARATE WAVES MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH
THE QUICK UPPER FLOW, WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW PERSISTING INTO
THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE DIGGING OF A DEEP MIDLEVEL LOW INTO
THE REGION.
WITH COLD TEMPS AND A SUPPORTIVE VERTICAL THERMAL PROFILE, SNOW
RATIOS MAY BE WELL ABOVE CLIMO (POTENTIALLY AS HIGH AS 15:1),
BUT THE TRANSIENT AND QUICK-MOVING FORCING IS CONTRIBUTING TO
LOWER CONFIDENCE REGARDING SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL.
THERE IS DEFINITELY THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION (WHICH SEEMS LIKELY AT THIS JUNCTURE FOR LOCALES
NEAR/S OF THE OH RVR), AS WELL AS IMPACTFUL COMMUTES WEDNESDAY
(AM AND PM) AND THURSDAY (AM), BUT DETAILS AND THE EXACT TRACK
OF THE SHORTWAVE(S) WILL STILL NEED SOME REFINEMENT IN FUTURE
FORECASTS.
A VERY COLD AIRMASS WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE MODERATING SUBTLY INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
MID LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW, ALONG WITH AN EMBEDDED MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE, WILL COMBINE WITH CAA/STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES TO PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
HOWEVER, SOME BRIEF IFR OR LOWER VISIBILITIES MAY OCCUR WHERE
HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS OCCUR (THIS WILL BE HANDLED ON A SHORT TERM
BASIS BY WATCHING ALL AVAILABLE RADAR DATA). IN ADDITION, A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SOME MIXING WILL RESULT IN WIND
GUSTS FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST BETWEEN 25 AND 35 KNOTS.
THE CYCLONIC FLOW AND MID LEVEL ENERGY WILL PIVOT AWAY TO THE
EAST FROM MID EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF MONDAY.
THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO DECREASING SNOW SHOWER COVERAGE WITH
PERHAPS A FEW FLURRIES LINGERING OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
BUT WILL REMAIN OCCASIONALLY GUSTY ACROSS NORTHERN TERMINALS. IN
ADDITION, A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY LATE
TONIGHT OR BY SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING.
ON MONDAY, ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST WILL BUILD
SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED
TO PUSH EAST WHILE MID LEVEL CLOUDS REPLACE THEM AS THEY STREAM
IN FROM THE WEST. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE WEST SUSTAINED
BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONALLY GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS
NEAR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS.
OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS MAY PERSIST AT TIMES THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR OHZ026-
034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
KYZ089>100.
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR INZ050-
058-059-066-073>075-080.
SYNOPSIS...KC/HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...KC/HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...HICKMAN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page