877
FXUS61 KILN 161958
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
258 PM EST SUN FEB 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
AND WILL THEN LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS, WITH MUCH COLDER
AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ON
TAP FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK, WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME
ADDITIONAL SNOW MIDWEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
MID LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW, ALONG WITH AN EMBEDDED MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE, WILL COMBINE WITH CAA/STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES TO PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION, A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND SOME MIXING WILL RESULT IN WIND GUSTS FROM THE WEST
AND NORTHWEST BETWEEN 25 MPH AND 35 MPH. ALTHOUGH ADDITIONAL
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE AN INCH OR LESS, THE FALLING
TEMPERATURES, GUSTY WINDS, AND SOME BLOWING OF THE SNOW, WILL
MAKE FOR SLICK/ICY CONDITIONS ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS. AS A
RESULT, WILL CONTINUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA UNTIL MIDNIGHT.
THE CYCLONIC FLOW AND MID LEVEL ENERGY WILL THEN PIVOT AWAY TO
THE EAST FROM MID EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF
MONDAY. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO DECREASING SNOW SHOWER COVERAGE
WITH PERHAPS A FEW FLURRIES LINGERING OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH BUT WILL REMAIN OCCASIONALLY GUSTY ACROSS NORTHERN
ZONES.
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTHWEST TO
THE UPPER TEENS SOUTHEAST. WINDS AND TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT
IN WIND CHILL VALUES RANGING FROM NEAR 10 BELOW NORTHWEST
(APPROACHING COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA) TO 10 ABOVE
SOUTHEAST.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD/WEDGE SOUTHEAST INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH BELOW
NORMAL. CAA STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WILL SHIFT EAST, BECOMING
REPLACED BY MID/HIGH CLOUDS. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TEENS
NORTH TO THE MID/UPPER 20S SOUTH.
FOR MONDAY NIGHT, A WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL RIPPLE
THROUGH THE CONFLUENT MID LEVEL FLOW ALOFT, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
IT TO SHEAR/WEAKEN. FOR NOW, AM JUST EXPECTING AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS WITH ANY PCPN REMAINING JUST OFF TO OUR WEST/SOUTHEAST.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH TO THE MID TEENS
SOUTH. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 5 BELOW NORTH TO
NEAR 10 SOUTH.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
A STRONG AND COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE CENTERED
OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN/THE FAR NORTHERN PLAINS AT THE START
OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT
SHIFTS SLOWLY SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK. HOWEVER, THIS WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES ACROSS
OUR REGION WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY. DAYTIME HIGHS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE TEENS AND 20S WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS.
IN ZONAL FLOW ALOFT, A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE QUICKLY
EAST ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE/850
MB WAVE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST US. WE WILL REMAIN ON
THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THIS SYSTEM WITH SNOW CHANCES MOVING IN
LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WILL RANGE POPS FROM CHANCE ACROSS OUR NORTH TO CATEGORICAL IN
THE FAR SOUTH. SLRS SHOULD BE FAIRLY HIGH SO AT THIS POINT IT
APPEARS THAT 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE, MAINLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER, WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE NORTH.
WILL THEN LINGER A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SOME SECONDARY MID LEVEL ENERGY ROTATES
DOWN ACROSS OUR AREA.
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS
EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD
LEAD TO A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WITH TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL BY SUNDAY. SOME EMBEDDED MID LEVEL ENERGY MAY EVENTUALLY
LEAD TO SOME LOWER POP CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND, BUT WILL
MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW.
AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
MID LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW, ALONG WITH AN EMBEDDED MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE, WILL COMBINE WITH CAA/STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES TO PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
HOWEVER, SOME BRIEF IFR OR LOWER VISIBILITIES MAY OCCUR WHERE
HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS OCCUR (THIS WILL BE HANDLED ON A SHORT TERM
BASIS BY WATCHING ALL AVAILABLE RADAR DATA). IN ADDITION, A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SOME MIXING WILL RESULT IN WIND
GUSTS FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KNOTS.
THE CYCLONIC FLOW AND MID LEVEL ENERGY WILL PIVOT AWAY TO THE
EAST FROM MID EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF MONDAY.
THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO DECREASING SNOW SHOWER COVERAGE WITH
PERHAPS A FEW FLURRIES LINGERING OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
BUT WILL REMAIN OCCASIONALLY GUSTY ACROSS NORTHERN TERMINALS. IN
ADDITION, A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY LATE
TONIGHT OR BY SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING.
ON MONDAY, ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST WILL BUILD
SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED
TO PUSH EAST WHILE MID LEVEL CLOUDS REPLACE THEM AS THEY STREAM
IN FROM THE WEST. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE WEST SUSTAINED
BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONALLY GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS
NEAR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS.
OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS MAY PERSIST AT TIMES THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR OHZ026-
034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
KYZ089>100.
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR INZ050-
058-059-066-073>075-080.
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...HICKMAN
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