021
FXUS61 KILN 170154
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
854 PM EST SUN FEB 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
AND WILL THEN LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS, WITH MUCH COLDER
AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ON
TAP FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK, WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME
ADDITIONAL SNOW MIDWEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/
AMIDST MIDLEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW, AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE PIVOTING
AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROF IS PROVIDING JUST ENOUGH FORCING
WITHIN A SUFFICIENTLY COLD/SATURATED PROFILE TO PRODUCE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHSN AND WIDESPREAD LIGHT SN THIS
EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE COVERAGE OF ACTIVITY WILL BE FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD, ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE ONE
HALF INCH OR LESS. HOWEVER, ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
COMBINED WITH FALLING TEMPS, GUSTY WINDS, AND SOME BLOWING OF
THE SNOW, WILL MAKE FOR SLICK/ICY CONDITIONS ON UNTREATED
ROADWAYS. ACCORDINGLY, WILL CONTINUE THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA UNTIL MIDNIGHT, AT WHICH
POINT THE COVERAGE OF LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO DWINDLE.
HOWEVER, SCATTERED FLURRIES SHOULD LINGER THROUGH MOST OF THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD FOR AT LEAST PARTS OF THE LOCAL AREA.
WNW AROUND 15KTS, WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25KTS, MAY ALLOW FOR
SOME PATCHY BLOWING SNOW, REDUCING GROUND VISIBILITIES
PERIODICALLY AND CAUSING SNOW TO BLOW BACK ONTO PREVIOUSLY-
CLEARED SURFACES. THIS MAY CONTINUE AFTER THE SNOW COMES TO AN
END.
LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS (NW) TO THE UPPER
TEENS (SE). STIFF WNW WINDS AND FRIGID TEMPS WILL RESULT IN
WIND CHILL VALUES RANGING FROM NEAR 10 BELOW ZERO IN WC OH TO 10
ABOVE ZERO IN THE LOWER SCIOTO VALLEY AND NE KY.
SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD/WEDGE SOUTHEAST INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH BELOW
NORMAL. CAA STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WILL SHIFT EAST, BECOMING
REPLACED BY MID/HIGH CLOUDS. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TEENS
NORTH TO THE MID/UPPER 20S SOUTH.
FOR MONDAY NIGHT, A WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL RIPPLE
THROUGH THE CONFLUENT MID LEVEL FLOW ALOFT, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
IT TO SHEAR/WEAKEN. FOR NOW, AM JUST EXPECTING AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS WITH ANY PCPN REMAINING JUST OFF TO OUR WEST/SOUTHEAST.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH TO THE MID TEENS
SOUTH. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 5 BELOW NORTH TO
NEAR 10 SOUTH.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
A STRONG AND COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE CENTERED
OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN/THE FAR NORTHERN PLAINS AT THE START
OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT
SHIFTS SLOWLY SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK. HOWEVER, THIS WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES ACROSS
OUR REGION WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY. DAYTIME HIGHS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE TEENS AND 20S WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS.
IN ZONAL FLOW ALOFT, A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE QUICKLY
EAST ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE/850
MB WAVE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST US. WE WILL REMAIN ON
THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THIS SYSTEM WITH SNOW CHANCES MOVING IN
LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WILL RANGE POPS FROM CHANCE ACROSS OUR NORTH TO CATEGORICAL IN
THE FAR SOUTH. SLRS SHOULD BE FAIRLY HIGH SO AT THIS POINT IT
APPEARS THAT 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE, MAINLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER, WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE NORTH.
WILL THEN LINGER A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SOME SECONDARY MID LEVEL ENERGY ROTATES
DOWN ACROSS OUR AREA.
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS
EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD
LEAD TO A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WITH TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL BY SUNDAY. SOME EMBEDDED MID LEVEL ENERGY MAY EVENTUALLY
LEAD TO SOME LOWER POP CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND, BUT WILL
MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW.
AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
WIDESPREAD LIGHT SN/SHSN, WITH ACCOMPANYING MVFR VSBYS, WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE TAF PERIOD, DECREASING IN
COVERAGE/INTENSITY TOWARD 06Z, WITH JUST A FEW LINGERING
FLURRIES EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT,
PARTICULARLY FOR CENTRAL OH SITES OF KCMH/KLCK. MVFR CIGS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH DAYBREAK BEFORE SCATTERING OUT DURING THE
DAYTIME FROM W TO E. HOWEVER, PAST 18Z, SOME MIDLEVEL CLOUDS
WILL BE STREAMING IN FROM THE W ONCE AGAIN, BUT CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE VFR FOR THE FINAL PART OF THE TAF PERIOD.
WNW WINDS AROUND 15-20KTS, WITH GUSTS TO 30KTS, WILL SLOWLY
SUBSIDE THROUGH DAYBREAK, GENERALLY GOING MORE WESTERLY AT
12-15KTS, WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20KTS, DURING THE DAYTIME.
OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MVFR CIGS MAY PERSIST AT TIMES THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR OHZ026-
034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
KYZ089>100.
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR INZ050-
058-059-066-073>075-080.
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...KC/HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...KC
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