501
FXUS61 KILN 170845
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
345 AM EST MON FEB 17 2025
SYNOPSIS
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ON TAP FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK, WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW MIDWEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
RAPID CLEARING OF CLOUDS AND LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS IS OCCURRING
THIS MORNING WITH CLEAR SKIES OVERHEAD IN EASTERN INDIANA AND
WESTERN OHIO. WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED SO WIND EXPOSED ROADWAYS
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO SEE BLOWING SNOW LEADING TO SLICK
CONDITIONS. CLOUDS ARE CLEARING IN THE WEST SO TEMPERATURES HAVE
DROPPED A FEW DEGREES, BRINGING WIND CHILLS DOWN A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. AN SPS REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 8 AM
COVERING THE SLICK SPOTS AND COLD CONDITIONS.
THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE THAT BROUGHT HEAVY RAIN AND LIGHT SNOW
TO THE AREA CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE OUR BASELINE WIND CONDITIONS,
WITH WESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WIND GUSTS
ABOVE 20 MPH LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE
OHIO RIVER. TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE UPPER 20S IN THE SOUTH,
BUT REMAIN IN THE TEENS ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN INDIANA, WEST-
CENTRAL OHIO AND CENTRAL OHIO.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST LATER THIS
EVENING, CAUSING WINDS TO DECREASE AND BECOME MORE NORTHERLY.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/
AFTER THE BRIEF WARM UP DURING THE AFTERNOON, THE ARCTIC SURFACE
HIGH NUDGES CLOSER TO THE REGION, SUPPORTING COOLER OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES AREA WIDE. THE LOWER TEMPERATURES AND LINGERING
LIGHT WINDS SUPPORT WIND CHILL VALUES BETWEEN -5 AND -10 ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA, AND THIS WILL REMAIN MENTIONED IN
THE HWO. OTHERWISE, CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW FLURRIES ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTH MONDAY EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS A STRETCH OF
MOISTURE PUSHES EAST. THANKS TO THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE,
CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR EXISTS IN THE LOWEST PORTIONS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE, LIKELY SUBLIMATING ANY FLAKES AS THE FALL.
VERY SUBTLE RIDGING OCCURS WITHIN THE MOSTLY ZONAL MID-LEVEL
FLOW, DECREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SNOW TO ENTER THE
AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY. MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL STRETCH
EASTWARD FROM THE SNOW STORM ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH
TEMPERATURES VERY SIMILAR TO MONDAY (TEENS IN THE NORTH, MID TO
UPPER 20S IN THE SOUTH).
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
NOSE OF ARCTIC SURFACE HIGH WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION TO
START THE PERIOD. A SHORT WAVE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA, ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SMALL BUT IMPORTANT
DIFFERENCES WITHIN THE MODEL SUITE CONCERNING HOW FAR NORTH THE
PRECIPITATION WILL EXTEND. THIS WILL BE ALL SNOW FOR THE AREA.
IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A 1 TO 3 INCH EVENT FOR THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES, ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME UPSIDE TO THIS IF SNOW-TO-
LIQUID RATIOS END UP A BIT HIGHER THAN FORECAST.
THE SNOW WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. BUT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AND TRACK THROUGH THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL
ALSO BRING THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THIS EXTENDED COLD
PERIOD. IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LOW, THERE WILL BE MODEST, LOW-
AMPLITUDE RIDGING. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND AND THEN AS IT MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST ALLOW FOR SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE A BIT ALTHOUGH THEY WILL STILL BE BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY.
AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR RESTRICTIONS ARE CURRENTLY PRESENT THIS
EVENING, ALONG WITH SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS. OCCASIONAL
REDUCTIONS IN VIS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE SNOW SHOWERS, BUT
OVERALL, THE INTENSITY IS DECREASING ALONG WITH THE COVERAGE.
RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS SHOWN A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER, ALONG WITH A MORE SIGNIFICANT SCATTERING OF MVFR CIGS
ACROSS INDIANA. THIS HAS RESULTED IN A FASTER IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
IN THE MOST RECENT TAFS FOR ALL SITES.
WIND GUSTS HAVE DROPPED IN INTENSITY SOME THIS EVENING, BUT ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AROUND THE 20 KNOT RANGE FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS.
OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MVFR CIGS MAY PERSIST AT TIMES THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MCGINNIS
NEAR TERM...MCGINNIS
SHORT TERM...MCGINNIS
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MCGINNIS
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