879
FXUS61 KILN 171750
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1250 PM EST MON FEB 17 2025
SYNOPSIS
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ON TAP FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK, WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW MIDWEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO WEDGE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
TODAY. SUNNY SKIES EARLY ON WILL BE FOLLOWED BY INCREASING
CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM THE WEST. WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WIND GUSTS ABOVE 20 MPH WILL LINGER ACROSS
THE NORTH INTO THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE
UPPER 20S IN THE SOUTH, BUT REMAIN IN THE TEENS ACROSS MUCH OF
EASTERN INDIANA, WEST-CENTRAL OHIO AND CENTRAL OHIO.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/
AFTER THE BRIEF WARM UP DURING THE AFTERNOON, THE ARCTIC
SURFACE HIGH NUDGES CLOSER TO THE REGION, SUPPORTING COOLER
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES AREA WIDE. THE LOWER TEMPERATURES AND
LINGERING LIGHT WINDS SUPPORT WIND CHILL VALUES BETWEEN -5 AND
-10 ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA, AND THIS WILL REMAIN
MENTIONED IN THE HWO. OTHERWISE, CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW FLURRIES
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH MONDAY EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS A
STRETCH OF MOISTURE PUSHES EAST. THANKS TO THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE, CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR EXISTS IN THE LOWEST PORTIONS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE, LIKELY SUBLIMATING ANY FLAKES AS THE FALL.
VERY SUBTLE RIDGING OCCURS WITHIN THE MOSTLY ZONAL MID-LEVEL
FLOW, DECREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SNOW TO ENTER THE
AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY. MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL STRETCH
EASTWARD FROM THE SNOW STORM ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH
TEMPERATURES VERY SIMILAR TO MONDAY (TEENS IN THE NORTH, MID TO
UPPER 20S IN THE SOUTH).
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
NOSE OF ARCTIC SURFACE HIGH WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION TO
START THE PERIOD. A SHORT WAVE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA, ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SMALL BUT IMPORTANT
DIFFERENCES WITHIN THE MODEL SUITE CONCERNING HOW FAR NORTH THE
PRECIPITATION WILL EXTEND. THIS WILL BE ALL SNOW FOR THE AREA.
IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A 1 TO 3 INCH EVENT FOR THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES, ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME UPSIDE TO THIS IF SNOW-TO-
LIQUID RATIOS END UP A BIT HIGHER THAN FORECAST.
THE SNOW WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. BUT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AND TRACK THROUGH THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL
ALSO BRING THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THIS EXTENDED COLD
PERIOD. IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LOW, THERE WILL BE MODEST, LOW-
AMPLITUDE RIDGING. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND AND THEN AS IT MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST ALLOW FOR SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE A BIT ALTHOUGH THEY WILL STILL BE BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEST WINDS 8 TO 14 KNOTS WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO
20 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND WILL BECOME NORTHWEST TO
NORTH OVERNIGHT. THEY WILL THEN BE NORTH TO NORTH/NORTHEAST
BETWEEN 5 AND 8 KNOTS ON TUESDAY.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATE TODAY AND WILL THICKEN/LOWER TONIGHT
AS A WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSE MOVES EAST TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY. THERE COULD BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW WITH THIS FEATURE
LATE TONIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF TUESDAY SOUTHWEST OF
KCVG/KLUK. OTHERWISE, CEILINGS WILL BE BETWEEN 5 AND 7 KFT.
OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS MAY PERSIST AT TIMES THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN/MCGINNIS
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN/MCGINNIS
SHORT TERM...MCGINNIS
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...HICKMAN
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