767
FXUS61 KILN 172036
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
336 PM EST MON FEB 17 2025
SYNOPSIS
A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY INTO TUESDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND THE SOUTHERN
STATES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, BRINGING THE
THREAT FOR SNOW ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SNOW
SHOWERS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ON TAP FOR MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE TO WEDGE
ITSELF INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT.
AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE IN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, ALONG WITH
SOME MOISTURE, WILL ALLOW CLOUDS TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST.
ENOUGH MOISTURE AND SOME WEAK MID LEVEL DEFORMATION MAY BRING A
LOW CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW TO OUR FAR SOUTHWEST CWFA OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD, WITH WINDS STAYING UP SOME ACROSS OUR
NORTH. THIS IS WHERE WIND CHILL VALUES COULD DIP INTO THE 5
BELOW TO 10 BELOW RANGE OVERNIGHT. WILL ISSUE AN SPS FOR THIS
THREAT. OTHERWISE, LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH
TO THE MID TEENS SOUTH.
SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION ON
TUESDAY DESPITE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. THERE MAY BE A LOW CHANCE
OF SNOW IN OUR FAR SOUTHWEST DURING THE MORNING WITH
AFOREMENTIONED DEFORMATION. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE COLD (MUCH
BELOW NORMAL) WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID TEENS NORTH TO THE
MID 20S SOUTH.
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF WEDNESDAY, MODELS HAVE
TRENDED A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM TO
AFFECT THE OHIO VALLEY (IT IS MORE SUPPRESSED). AS A RESULT, IT
LOOKS LIKE SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM MAY NOT GET TO MUCH
FARTHER NORTH THEN THE OHIO RIVER. HOWEVER, WE COULD STILL SEE
UP TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATE ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHERN CWFA.
IN COORDINATION AND COLLABORATION WITH OUR SOUTHERN NEIGHBORS,
HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 00Z WEDNESDAY INTO
17Z WEDNESDAY. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS NORTH OF THE ADVISORY WILL BE
AN INCH OR LESS. WE SHOULD SEE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE PCPN THREAT
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FIRST SYSTEM MOVES EAST AND ANOTHER
SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. AFTER LOWS IN THE 10 TO 15 DEGREE
RANGE, HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS NORTH
TO THE MID 20S SOUTH.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL PIVOT DOWN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALIZED LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. OTHERWISE, SURFACE HIGH HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT
EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE MOVING OFF TO OUR
EAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL PROVIDE FOR MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS AND GRADUALLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES. READINGS ON
THURSDAY WILL STILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN GRADUALLY RETURN TO
NEAR NORMAL READINGS BY SUNDAY WHEN DAYTIME HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 30S NORTH TO THE MID 40S SOUTH.
SOME MID LEVEL ENERGY MAY EVENTUALLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME LOWER END POPS BY MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MODERATE WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
MOSTLY IN THE 40S.
AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEST WINDS 8 TO 14 KNOTS WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO
20 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND WILL BECOME NORTHWEST TO
NORTH OVERNIGHT. THEY WILL THEN BE NORTH TO NORTH/NORTHEAST
BETWEEN 5 AND 8 KNOTS ON TUESDAY.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATE TODAY AND WILL THICKEN/LOWER TONIGHT
AS A WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSE MOVES EAST TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY. THERE COULD BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW WITH THIS FEATURE
LATE TONIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF TUESDAY SOUTHWEST OF
KCVG/KLUK. OTHERWISE, CEILINGS WILL BE BETWEEN 5 AND 7 KFT.
OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS MAY PERSIST AT TIMES THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM TUESDAY TO NOON EST
WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ089-090-094>100.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...HICKMAN
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