665
FXUS61 KILN 180219
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
919 PM EST MON FEB 17 2025
SYNOPSIS
A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY INTO TUESDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND THE SOUTHERN
STATES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, BRINGING THE
THREAT FOR SNOW ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SNOW
SHOWERS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ON TAP FOR MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE IN THE WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA. WITH DRY ANTECEDENT
AIR IN PLACE, PARTICULARLY IN THE BL, IT WILL BE A STRUGGLE TO
SLOWLY MOISTEN THE COLUMN SUFFICIENTLY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
THIS BEING SAID, THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT ENOUGH
MOISTURE COMBINED WITH SOME WEAK MID LEVEL DEFORMATION WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF PATCHY LIGHT SNOW THE SW QUARTER OF THE ILN
FA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A
NARROW BAND OF VERY LIGHT SNOW (AND FLURRIES) SHOULD EVOLVE
FROM FAR SE IN TO SOUTH OF METRO CINCY INTO N KY AFTER ABOUT 2
AM OR SO. WHILE ACCUMULATIONS, IF ANY, WILL BE MINOR, SUPPOSE
THAT A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE
(ESPECIALLY GIVEN RELATIVELY HIGH SLRS).
TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE COLD, EVEN WITH WINDS STAYING UP AND THE
EXPANSIVE CLOUD COVER MOVING IN. WHERE WINDS REMAIN THE
STRONGEST (N OF I-70), WIND CHILL VALUES WILL DIP BETWEEN 5
BELOW TO 10 BELOW OVERNIGHT. WILL CONTINUE AN SPS FOR THIS
THREAT FROM EC IN AND WC OH THROUGH CENTRAL OH. OTHERWISE, LOW
TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH TO THE MID TEENS
SOUTH.
SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION ON
TUESDAY DESPITE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. THERE MAY BE A LOW CHANCE
OF SNOW IN OUR FAR SOUTHWEST DURING THE MORNING WITH
AFOREMENTIONED DEFORMATION. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE COLD (MUCH
BELOW NORMAL) WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID TEENS NORTH TO THE
MID 20S SOUTH.
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF WEDNESDAY, MODELS HAVE
TRENDED A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM TO
AFFECT THE OHIO VALLEY (IT IS MORE SUPPRESSED). AS A RESULT, IT
LOOKS LIKE SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM MAY NOT GET TO MUCH
FARTHER NORTH THEN THE OHIO RIVER. HOWEVER, WE COULD STILL SEE
UP TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATE ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHERN CWFA.
IN COORDINATION AND COLLABORATION WITH OUR SOUTHERN NEIGHBORS,
HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 00Z WEDNESDAY INTO
17Z WEDNESDAY. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS NORTH OF THE ADVISORY WILL BE
AN INCH OR LESS. WE SHOULD SEE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE PCPN THREAT
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FIRST SYSTEM MOVES EAST AND ANOTHER
SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. AFTER LOWS IN THE 10 TO 15 DEGREE
RANGE, HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS NORTH
TO THE MID 20S SOUTH.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL PIVOT DOWN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALIZED LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. OTHERWISE, SURFACE HIGH HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT
EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE MOVING OFF TO OUR
EAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL PROVIDE FOR MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS AND GRADUALLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES. READINGS ON
THURSDAY WILL STILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN GRADUALLY RETURN TO
NEAR NORMAL READINGS BY SUNDAY WHEN DAYTIME HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 30S NORTH TO THE MID 40S SOUTH.
SOME MID LEVEL ENERGY MAY EVENTUALLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME LOWER END POPS BY MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MODERATE WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
MOSTLY IN THE 40S.
AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
MID CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE REGION, WITH AN OVERALL
THICKENING OF THE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
THE TAF PERIOD. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS FOR BORDERLINE
MVFR/VFR CLOUDS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AROUND/AFTER 06Z, BUT
CONFIDENCE WAS NOT YET HIGH ENOUGH TO ADD MVFR CIGS TO THE FCST.
BUT CERTAINLY IT REMAINS A POSSIBILITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
WEST WINDS AROUND 10KTS WILL DIMINISH AND WILL BECOME NW
OVERNIGHT, EVENTUALLY GOING NORTHERLY LATE IN THE DAYTIME,
REMAINING AT 10KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSE WILL MOVE E TOWARD THE AREA AFTER 06Z,
WHICH COULD SPREAD SOME BRIEF LIGHT SN INTO SRN PARTS OF THE
AREA BETWEEN 07Z-11Z, POTENTIALLY IMPACTING KCVG/KLUK. ADDED A
PROB30 FOR THESE SITES INTO THE FCST FOR NOW, BUT THE SN SHOULD
BE LIGHT ENOUGH THAT WIDESPREAD/PROLONGED VSBY RESTRICTIONS ARE
NOT EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR ARE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS MAY PERSIST AT TIMES THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM TUESDAY TO NOON EST
WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ089-090-094>100.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...KC/HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...KC
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