613
FXUS61 KILN 181128
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
628 AM EST TUE FEB 18 2025
SYNOPSIS
A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
MOVE EAST THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND THE SOUTHERN STATES
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, BRINGING THE THREAT FOR SNOW
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL THEN MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS. BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ON TAP FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
A MODEST LOW TO MID-LEVEL JET STREAM OVER THE LOWER MIDWEST
CONTINUES TO FEED MOISTURE EASTWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. WHILE
THERE IS CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE, VERY EFFICIENT
DENDRITE PRODUCTION IS GRADUALLY SATURATING THE LOWER
ATMOSPHERE, SUPPORTING PERIODS OF VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES
ACROSS EASTERN/SOUTHERN INDIANA, SOUTHWEST OHIO, AND NORTHERN
KENTUCKY THIS MORNING. SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF A COUPLE
TENTHS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS WITH LIMITED IMPACTS TO
THE MORNING COMMUTE. TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA (TOWARD
LOUISVILLE,) A BIT BETTER BANDING IS CURRENTLY OBSERVED,
SUPPORTED HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS. THIS ACTIVITY DRIFTS OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST LATER THIS MORNING AS LOW TO MID-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
MORE NORTHWESTERLY.
OTHERWISE, THE REST OF THE AREA IS DRY TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUING TO SUPPLY COLD TEMPERATURES. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
PEAK IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
TOWARD EVENING, ATTENTION WILL SHIFT TO THE SHORTWAVE DIGGING
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND LOWER MIDWEST, SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD
SNOW ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. WITH LOW LEVEL DRY AIR
REINFORCED THROUGHOUT THE DAY, ALL SNOW FROM THIS SYSTEM LIKELY
FAILS TO REACH THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA (NORTHERN
KENTUCKY) UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/
OVERALL, NO MAJOR TRENDS TO NOTE WITH THE EXPECTATIONS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPCOMING SNOW EVENT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE CURRENTLY ADVISORY AND
TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.
THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS ESSENTIALLY PERFECT THERMALLY SPEAKING
BUT THE STEADY FLOW OF DRY AIR FROM THE NORTH AND THE LACK OF
INTENSE UPWARD LIFT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA, SUGGESTS
ACCUMULATIONS AND IMPACTS WILL BE ISOLATED TO PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN OHIO AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT
AN INCREDIBLE DGZ DEPTH OF 12KFT+ SO AS WEAK FRONTOGENESIS
OCCURS, SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE VERY EFFECTIVE. THE
PERIOD OF BEST VERTICAL ASCENT IS LIKELY BETWEEN 4AM AND 9AM,
WITH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF GENERALLY 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS THE
ADVISED AREA. SNOW TAPERS OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE TRI-
STATE AND NORTHEAST KENTUCKY BETWEEN NOON AND 3PM. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT ANY NUDGE NORTH OR SOUTH IN THE FRONTOGENESIS COULD
CAUSE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO INCREASE OR DECREASE FAIRLY
SIGNIFICANTLY, GIVEN THE VERY EFFICIENT DENDRITE PRODUCTION.
EVEN A FEW HUNDREDTHS MORE OF QPF WILL RESULT IN NOTICEABLE
FORECAST CHANGES TODAY.
SIMILAR TO TODAY (TUESDAY), THE REST OF THE AREA AVOIDS THE SNOW
ACTIVITY, WITH FLURRIES REACHING AS FAR NORTH AS I-70. HIGH
TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW FREEZING WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW.
AS THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA, THE PRIMARY
VORT-LOBE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST, WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY MOVING INTO THE
AREA FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE SHORT TERM
CONCLUDES.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
UPPER LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION TO START THE PERIOD.
THIS WILL PUSH A SECONDARY FRONT THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THIS COMBINATION WILL RESULT IN SNOW SHOWERS WHICH COULD
PRODUCE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS, GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH. THIS
WILL HAVE MOVED OFF TO THE EAST BY THURSDAY, BUT WINDS WILL
BECOME GUSTY. FLOW OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN COULD KEEP SOME FLURRIES
OR MAYBE EVEN A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND THEN
MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR THE RETURN OF
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.
COLDEST AIR WILL BE OVER THE REGION AT THE START OF THE PERIOD.
READINGS WILL SLOWLY MODERATE, AND BY EARLY NEXT WEEK EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO BE NEAR OR EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
A WEAK SYSTEM IS BRINGING LIGHT SNOW TO SOUTHWEST OHIO,
PROVIDING MVFR VIS AT TIMES AT CVG/LUK. HAVE CONTINUED THE
MENTION OF -SN AND MVFR VIS UNTIL 15Z, WHEN THE LINGERING SNOW
DRIFTS AWAY TO THE SOUTH.
OTHERWISE, PREVAILING VFR TAFS FOR THE REST OF THE AREA WITH
LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW.
FOR CVG/LUK: MVFR CIGS AND VIS RETURN BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z
WEDNESDAY AS LIGHT SNOW MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTH. MVFR CIGS
LINGER AFTER THE SNOW BEGINS TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY TOWARD THE
END OF THE 30-HOUR CVG TAF.
OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR ARE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MVFR CEILINGS MAY PERSIST AT TIMES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ089-090-094>100.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...MCGINNIS
SHORT TERM...MCGINNIS
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MCGINNIS
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