748
FXUS61 KILN 190006
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
706 PM EST TUE FEB 18 2025
SYNOPSIS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
AND THE SOUTHERN STATES TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, BRINGING
THE THREAT FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BRINGING A CHANCE FOR
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE ENTIRE AREA. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ON
TAP FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/
FOCUS TONIGHT ONS SNOW POTENTIAL ACROSS ILN/S SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF AND STRONG
JET TRACKING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM LACKS A SURFACE LOW AND
THEREFORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE LIMITED. THIS
WILL LEAD TO A SHARP GRADIENT OF THE SNOWFALL ON THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY. MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO TREND A LITTLE SOUTH WITH
THE SNOW AXIS. EXPECT ONSET OF SNOW LATE EVENING THRU ABOUT
MIDNIGHT. LIFT AND MOISTURE IS LIMITED BUT DUE TO THERMAL
PROFILES AND FAVORABLE DGZ - EXPECT SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS OF
16:1 TO 18:1. ALTHOUGH QPF IS LOW THESE RATIOS WILL YIELD SNOW
TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS NORTHERN KY OVERNIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE CURRENTLY
ADVISORY AND TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA OBSERVES AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
WITH ONLY FLURRIES. COLD CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH LOWS FROM THE
SINGLE DIGITS NORTH TO THE MID TEENS SOUTH.
SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SNOW TO BE TRACKING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES WEDNESDAY MORNING. BEST LIFT EXITS THE
AREA OVER THE SOUTHEAST BY 9 AM. EXPECT 1-2 INCHES ACROSS ILN/S
EXTREME SOUTHERN COUNTIES WITH A SHARP GRADIENT TO THE NORTH.
SNOW TAPERS OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AND
NORTHEAST KENTUCKY BETWEEN 10 AM AND NOON.
THE REMAINDER OF THE OF THE AREA AVOIDS THE SNOW ACTIVITY, ONLY
FLURRIES ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO. HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM
NEAR 20 NORTHWEST TO THE MID 20S SOUTHEAST.
AS THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM TRACKS AWAY FROM THE AREA, A MID LEVEL
LOW DIGS SOUTHEAST CROSSING THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA EXPECT SOME LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY EVENING AND
OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT. SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS WILL
RANGE FROM 18:1 TO 20:1 WITH ACCUMULATIONS UP TO AN INCH ACROSS
THE AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM 10 TO 15 DEGREES.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO NUDGE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TO
START THE EXTENDED PERIOD ON THURSDAY. CYCLONIC NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO, SO CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO DECREASE
THERE. OTHERWISE, IT APPEARS DECREASING CLOUDS WILL BE THE TREND
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
THE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER OUR CWA ON SATURDAY AND BEGIN TO BE
COMPRESSED TO OUR SOUTH SUNDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES TO START NEXT
WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION (IN THE FORM OF RAIN) ARRIVES
WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO CLOSE THE PERIOD
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING SNOW TO SOME OF THE AREA TAF SITES
OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE DAYTIME MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY.
EXPECT SNOW TO GENERALLY STAY SOUTH OF KDAY, KCMH, AND KLCK AND
THEREFORE LEFT THEM DRY. LIMITED ANY VSBY RESTRICTIONS WITH SNOW
AT KILN TO A TEMPO. HAVE KCVG AND KLUK VSBYS DROP TO MVFR FOR A
LONGER TIME PERIOD. CIGS WILL LOWER OVERNIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AT ALL AREA TAF SITES. EXPECT A RETURN
TO VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING HOURS ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS MVFR CONDITIONS RETURN
BEFORE THE END OF THE LONGER KCVG TAF PERIOD WITH BOTH VSBYS AND
CIGS DUE TO ADDITIONAL SNOW.
OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN
SNOW SHOWERS. MVFR CEILINGS MAY PERSIST AT TIMES THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ089-
090-094>100.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
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