171
FXUS61 KILN 191812
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
112 PM EST WED FEB 19 2025
SYNOPSIS
SNOW CHANCES DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE MORNING HAS THE FIRST OF
TWO SYSTEMS MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY
TONIGHT, BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS TO THE ENTIRE AREA.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ON TAP FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
UPDATE...
WITH SHORTWAVE AND FORCING SLIDING OFF TO THE EAST - PCPN HAS
ENDED AND CLOUDS HAVE SCATTERED OUT. THEREFORE - HAVE ALLOWED
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS TO
EXPIRE. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY EXPECT AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS LATER THIS AFTN FROM THE WEST WITH SNOW REDEVELOPING
THIS EVENING. COLD CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH HIGHS FROM NEAR 20
NORTHWEST TO THE MID 20S SOUTHEAST.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION....
WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW WITH A WEAK AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROF
AND STRONG JET TRACKING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. AXIS OF
WEAK FORCING WITH H7 DEFORMATION AXIS HANGING BACK ACROSS
NORTHEAST KY INTO SOUTHWEST OHIO. THIS WAS LEADING TO CONTINUED
SNOW ACROSS ILN/S SOUTHERN COUNTIES. ALTHOUGH FORCING IS
GENERALLY WEAK AND QPF IS LIGHT THE SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS CLOSE
TO 20:1 ALONG WITH FAVORABLE DGZ WAS LEADING TO EFFICIENT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS. HIGHEST REPORTED SNOWFALL TOTALS WERE ACROSS
NORTHEAST KY WHERE UP TO 1.5 INCHES WAS REPORTED.
AS THIS SYSTEM TRANSLATES EAST SNOW WILL COME TO END FOR A
PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
THRU NOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN KY AND A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT TO THE NORTH OF THIS AREA INTO SOUTHERN OHIO FOR THIS
MORNINGS LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION. EXPECT ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL TO
GENERALLY BE A HALF INCH OR LESS.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/
AFTER A BRIEF RESPITE FROM THE BROAD-SCALE ASCENT, ANOTHER
ROUND OF FORCING MOVES IN DURING THE ONSET OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. THE CLOSED LOW PIVOTS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY LATER THIS
EVENING WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED. THE
TIMING OF THE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH REMOVED
FROM THE EVENING COMMUTE AS TO NOT CAUSE MAJOR PROBLEMS,
THEREFORE NO ADVISORY WAS ISSUED AT THIS TIME. ACCUMULATIONS
WILL TAKE PLACE OVERTIME, WITH BETWEEN 0.5 AND 1.5 INCHES
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE TEMPERATURE REMAIN COLD, MUCH OF
THE FORCING WILL OCCUR IN TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN THE DGZ,
DECREASING THE SIZE OF THE FLAKES. NEVERTHELESS, GIVEN THE HIGH
SNOW RATIOS, COLD TEMPERATURES, AND TIMING, AN SPS HAS BEEN
ISSUED TO COVER THE THREAT FOR SLICK ROADS LATER THIS EVENING.
SNOW SHOWERS TAPER OFF FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY
ON THURSDAY, WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING A STREAM OF MOISTURE
MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM LAKE MICHIGAN. HAVE HELD ON TO SOME
MENTION FOR CONTINUED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST-
CENTRAL OHIO AND CENTRAL OHIO UNTIL THE END OF THE PERIOD. SOME
LOCATIONS MAY END UP WITH NEAR 2" DUE TO THE LONGER DURATION OF
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.
THE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST AND INCOMING SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS ON THURSDAY. SOME BLOWING
OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE AS WIND GUSTS APPROACH 20 TO 25 MPH.
LINGERING SNOW COVER AND FRESH DRY SNOW MAKE THIS POTENTIAL
FAVORABLE IN WIND EXPOSED AREAS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
FLOW OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN MAY STILL RESULT IN SOME SNOW SHOWERS
OR FLURRIES ACROSS FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES INTO THURSDAY NIGHT
BEFORE A SURFACE HIGH STARTS BUILDING IN SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW
THE FLOW TO BACK. THE HIGH WILL THEN EXTEND ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOWLY
MODERATING.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY AND SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A TROUGH THAT WILL BE TRAILING LOW
PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY. THIS WILL
BRING MORE SUBSTANTIAL WARMING WITH READINGS RISING ABOVE
NORMAL. ANOTHER LOW WILL FOLLOW ON TUESDAY, LIKELY TRACKING A
BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE ONE ON MONDAY. BUT THERE IS A FAIR
BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW THIS SECOND LOW EVOLVES. AT THIS
POINT, IT DOES BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SNOW HAS MOVED OFF TO THE
EAST WITH TAF SITES IMPROVING TO VFR. VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING.
MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TO DROP SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER MS
VALLEY ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY. LIGHT
SNOW TO OVERSPREAD THE TAF SITES AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM BETWEEN
02Z AND 05Z. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL DROP DOWN TO MVFR
WITH OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AT ALL BUT KCMH/KLCK
THRU 18Z THURSDAY.
NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WILL BACK NORTHWEST AT LESS THAN 10
KTS OVERNIGHT. THESE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 12-14KTS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK... MVFR CEILINGS MAY PERSIST AT TIMES THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MCGINNIS
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...MCGINNIS
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...AR
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