101
FXUS61 KILN 192042
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
342 PM EST WED FEB 19 2025
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO TRACK
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY, BRINGING
LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA. ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH COLD AIR COMING OFF THE GREAT LAKES. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL OFFER DRY WEATHER FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ON TAP THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. TEMPERATURES RISE THIS WEEKEND BUT REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/
MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TO DROP SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER MS
VALLEY ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AS THE
CLOSED LOW PIVOTS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY LATER THIS EVENING
LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP INTO EASTERN INDIANA AND WESTERN OHIO -
SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BY MIDNIGHT. WITH COLD
TEMPERATURES IN PLACE - SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS OF 18:1 AND 20:1
WILL EXIST. GIVEN THESE HIGH SNOW RATIOS, AND COLD TEMPERATURES,
EXPECT SNOWFALL BETWEEN 0.5 AND 1.5 INCHES BY MORNING. COLD
PAVEMENT TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW THE SNOW TO STICK WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SLICK SPOTS AND TRAVEL IMPACTS. A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM
THURSDAY MORNING.
COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS TO RANGE FROM NEAR 10 TO 15 DEGREES.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
MID LEVEL LOW OVER OHIO AT SUNRISE WILL TRANSLATE EAST TO THE
MID ATLANTIC BY EVENING. SNOW TO TAPER OFF FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
LATE THURSDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE EXCEPTION BEING A
STREAM OF MOISTURE MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM LAKE MICHIGAN WHICH
WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WEST-CENTRAL OHIO AND CENTRAL OHIO THRU THE DAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. SOME LOCATIONS MAY END UP WITH AROUND 2 INCHES DUE TO
THE LONGER DURATION OF SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NATIONS
MID SECTION AND LOW PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITH
GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH. SOME BLOWING SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
FRESH SNOW COVER. COLD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE WITH HIGHS THURSDAY
FROM 20-25 AND LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER
EASTERN INDIANA TO 15 ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL OHIO.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FRIDAY. IT'S
INFLUENCE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, EVEN AS IT MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY BEFORE APPROACHING NORMAL VALUES ON SUNDAY.
MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY NEXT WEEK AS THE NORTHERN
STREAM BECOMES QUITE ACTIVE. THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES LATE ON MONDAY. WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM, MONDAY WILL BE
WARMER THAN NORMAL. CAN'T RULE OUT SOME PRECIPITATION (RAIN) ACROSS
THE NORTH, THOUGH MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY.
ANOTHER QUICK-MOVING SHORTWAVE DESCENDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TO
CLOSE THE EXTENDED PERIOD ON WEDNESDAY. THIS LOOKS TO BE A BIT
FURTHER SOUTH, SO HAVE CHANCE POPS AREA-WIDE THIS DAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE NORMAL.
AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SNOW HAS MOVED OFF TO THE
EAST WITH TAF SITES IMPROVING TO VFR. VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING.
MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TO DROP SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER MS
VALLEY ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY. LIGHT
SNOW TO OVERSPREAD THE TAF SITES AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM BETWEEN
02Z AND 05Z. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL DROP DOWN TO MVFR
WITH OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AT ALL BUT KCMH/KLCK
THRU 18Z THURSDAY.
NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WILL BACK NORTHWEST AT LESS THAN 10
KTS OVERNIGHT. THESE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 12-14KTS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK... MVFR CEILINGS MAY PERSIST AT TIMES THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-
070>074-077>082-088.
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080.
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...AR
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