536
FXUS61 KILN 200307
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1007 PM EST WED FEB 19 2025
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO TRACK
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY, BRINGING
LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA. ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH COLD AIR COMING OFF THE GREAT LAKES. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL OFFER DRY WEATHER FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ON TAP THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. TEMPERATURES RISE THIS WEEKEND BUT REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/
CONTINUED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. WHILE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN THE TRADITIONAL WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY CRITERIA, WITH COLD CONDITIONS CONTINUING OVERNIGHT
SNOW WILL EASILY STICK TO UNTREATED SURFACES.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS
OVERNIGHT. SOME WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE BELOW ZERO, HOWEVER DO
NOT THINK THAT THEY WILL REACH COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
MID LEVEL LOW OVER OHIO AT SUNRISE WILL TRANSLATE EAST TO THE
MID ATLANTIC BY EVENING. SNOW TO TAPER OFF FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
LATE THURSDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE EXCEPTION BEING A
STREAM OF MOISTURE MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM LAKE MICHIGAN WHICH
WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WEST-CENTRAL OHIO AND CENTRAL OHIO THRU THE DAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. SOME LOCATIONS MAY END UP WITH AROUND 2 INCHES DUE TO
THE LONGER DURATION OF SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NATIONS
MID SECTION AND LOW PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITH
GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH. SOME BLOWING SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
FRESH SNOW COVER. COLD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE WITH HIGHS THURSDAY
FROM 20-25 AND LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER
EASTERN INDIANA TO 15 ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL OHIO.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FRIDAY. IT'S
INFLUENCE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, EVEN AS IT MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY BEFORE APPROACHING NORMAL VALUES ON SUNDAY.
MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY NEXT WEEK AS THE NORTHERN
STREAM BECOMES QUITE ACTIVE. THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES LATE ON MONDAY. WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM, MONDAY WILL BE
WARMER THAN NORMAL. CAN'T RULE OUT SOME PRECIPITATION (RAIN) ACROSS
THE NORTH, THOUGH MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY.
ANOTHER QUICK-MOVING SHORTWAVE DESCENDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TO
CLOSE THE EXTENDED PERIOD ON WEDNESDAY. THIS LOOKS TO BE A BIT
FURTHER SOUTH, SO HAVE CHANCE POPS AREA-WIDE THIS DAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE NORMAL.
AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY BRINGING LIGHT
SNOW TO THE AREA TAF SITES. SOME CIGS HAVE ALREADY DROPPED TO
MVFR AND EXPECT ALL AREA CIGS TO DROP TO MVFR OVERNIGHT AND INTO
THE DAY ON THURSDAY. VSBYS WILL DROP WITH SNOW INTO THE MVFR AND
IFR CATEGORIES. THERE WILL BE A DECREASE IN COVERAGE OF SNOW
DURING THE DAYTIME MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY, HOWEVER WITH WINDS
OFF OF THE LAKE THERE WILL BE SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ON THURSDAY.
THERE WILL BE SOME ADDITIONAL VSBYS REDUCTIONS WITH THIS
SNOWFALL ESPECIALLY AT KCMH AND KLCK. WINDS WILL PICK UP FOR
THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AT THE TAF SITES
WITH WIND GUSTS TYPICALLY AROUND 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK... MVFR CEILINGS MAY PERSIST AT TIMES THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THURSDAY FOR OHZ026-
034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
KYZ089>100.
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THURSDAY FOR INZ050-
058-059-066-073>075-080.
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
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