421
FXUS61 KILN 201527
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1027 AM EST THU FEB 20 2025
SYNOPSIS
AS HIGH
COLD AIR COMING OFF THE GREAT LAKES WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL OFFER DRY WEATHER FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ON TAP THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES RISE THIS WEEKEND BUT REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.SEVERAL
CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION RETURN BY MIDWEEK OF NEXT WEEK
AS A WARMER TEMPERATURE PATTERN DEVELOPS.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER EASTERN OHIO TO CONTINUE
MOVING EAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC BY EVENING. NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT DEVELOPS WITH FAVORABLE CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS.
THIS WILL LEAD TO A STREAMER OF LAKE ENHANCED MOISTURE OFF OF
LAKE MICHIGAN THAT AFFECTS PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL
OHIO. THIS WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR A NARROW AXIS OF CONTINUED
SNOW SHOWER OR FLURRY ACTIVITY. ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION WILL
BE LIGHT. COLD TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WITH HIGHS FROM NEAR 20
NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 20S SOUTHEAST.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/
THE MIDLEVEL LOW WILL PULL WELL TO THE E OF THE OH VLY TONIGHT
INTO THE DAY FRIDAY, LEAVING NW FLOW ALOFT IN ITS WAKE. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION INTO THE DAY FRIDAY,
ALTHOUGH THE PROSPECT OF CLEARING OUT AREA-WIDE REMAINS SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN. DO THINK THAT BY LATE IN THE DAY, THE LL FLOW WILL GO
MORE OUT OF THE W, OPPOSED TO THE NW, HELPING ADVECT IN SOME
DRIER AIR, YIELDING A SLOWLY-CLEARING SKY FROM W TO E THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. CENTRAL OH WILL SEE CLOUDS LINGER THE LONGEST,
ESPECIALLY AS THE CLOUD-BEARING FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE OFF THE
LAKES, REPLENISHING MOISTURE AND KEEPING CONDITIONS GENERALLY
MOSTLY CLOUDY UNTIL EARLY EVENING.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS (TRI-
STATE/N KY/SE IN) TO THE MID TEENS (WC/CENTRAL OH). THE
PROSPECT OF LIGHTER WINDS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING ACROSS FAR SW PARTS OF THE AREA LENDS ITSELF TO HIGHER
PROBABILITIES IN COLDER CONDITIONS IN THESE AREAS THAN FURTHER
TO THE NE FROM WC TO CENTRAL OH WHERE CLOUDS WILL LINGER MORE
AND THE WIND WILL BE STEADIER THROUGH THE NIGHT. HIGHS FRIDAY
WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID 20S IN WC/CENTRAL OH TO THE
LOWER 30S IN N KY AND SE IN.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ON FRIDAY EVENING, AN AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY, WITH GENERALLY PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT. THIS
SURFACE HIGH WILL REPRESENT THE FINAL STAGES OF THE COLD AIR MASS
THAT WILL HAVE BEEN IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE PRECEDING WEEK. A
WARMER PATTERN IS ON THE WAY, AS BROADER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ALLOWS FOR SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. WHILE HIGHS WILL ONLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER
20S TO UPPER 30S ON SATURDAY, TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE ABOVE
FREEZING CWA-WIDE ON SUNDAY, AND THEN SETTLE INTO THE MID 40S TO
LOWER 50S FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
A SERIES OF NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES THIS COMING WEEK. WHILE THE MAIN IMPACTS SHOULD REMAIN NORTH
OF THE ILN CWA, SOME PRECIPITATION (LIKELY PRIMARILY RAIN) MAY GET
FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO AFFECT THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
THERE ARE SIGNS FOR SOME GREATER CHANCES OF RAIN WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY, BUT WITH SOME SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES ON THE OVERALL
AMPLITUDE OF THE PATTERN, AND THUS THE TIMING OF WHATEVER SYSTEM
FOLLOWS THE SERIES OF SHORTWAVES EARLIER IN THE WEEK. ALL IN ALL, NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.
AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
BANDED LIGHT SN/WIDESPREAD FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE FOR THE LOCAL
TERMINALS THROUGH THE FIRST HOUR OR TWO OF THE TAF PERIOD
BEFORE DECREASING IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY. THIS SN IS LEADING TO
PREVAILING MVFR VSBYS ALONGSIDE MVFR CIGS, BUT VSBYS WILL RETURN
TO VFR ONCE THE SN COMES TO AN END.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LAKE-EFFECT/ENHANCED SHSN TO
PIVOT BACK INTO FAR NRN PARTS OF THE LOCAL AREA PAST 21Z OR SO,
POTENTIALLY IMPACTING KCMH/KLCK THROUGH 03Z OR SO. HOWEVER,
CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING/LOCATION OF THIS ACTIVITY IS SOMEWHAT
LOW, SO DECIDED TO GO WITH A PROB30 FOR NOW, WITH THE GREATEST
CHANCE FOR SOME SHSN ACTIVITY TO FOCUS AROUND KCMH/KLCK IN THE
SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD AROUND 00Z FRIDAY.
MVFR CIGS WILL ATTEMPT TO GO VFR FOR WRN SITES THIS MORNING, WITH
SOME SCATTERING OUT POSSIBLE DURING THE DAYTIME. HOWEVER, MVFR
CIGS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN OVERSPREAD A LARGER PORTION OF THE LOCAL
AREA, POTENTIALLY EVEN KCVG/KLUK, BETWEEN 06Z-12Z. LIGHT NNW
LESS THAN 10KTS WILL GO MORE OUT OF THE WNW AT 12-15KTS, WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 20KTS, BY 18Z BEFORE SUBSIDING ONCE AGAIN TO
10KTS OR LESS LATE IN THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK... MVFR CIGS MAY PERSIST AT TIMES INTO FRIDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...HATZOS
AVIATION...KC
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