805
FXUS61 KILN 202026
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
326 PM EST THU FEB 20 2025
SYNOPSIS
COLD AIR FLOWING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL LEAD TO CLOUDS AND
SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN OFFER DRY WEATHER FRIDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ON TAP THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES RISE THIS WEEKEND BUT REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL. SEVERAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION RETURN BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A WARMER TEMPERATURE PATTERN DEVELOPS.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/
MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER PA TO CONTINUE MOVING EAST
OFF THE EAST COAST OVERNIGHT. NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA IN
THE WAKE OF THIS LOW. FAVORABLE CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES WILL SUPPORT LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING.
THIS HAS LED TO A STREAMER OF LAKE ENHANCED MOISTURE OFF OF
LAKE MICHIGAN THAT WILL OFFER A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL OHIO. THIS
WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR A NARROW AXIS OF CONTINUED SNOW
SHOWER OR FLURRY ACTIVITY. ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION WILL BE
LIGHT. REGARDING CLOUDS - THERE MAY BE SOME EROSION OVER THE
SOUTHWEST LATE AS THE SURFACE HIGH BEGINS TO NOSE INTO THE AREA.
GENERALLY - HAVE MORE CLOUDS THAN NBM SOLUTION OVERNIGHT.
COLD TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WITH LOWS FROM NEAR 10 WEST TO
ABOUT 15 EAST.
SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
CONFLUENT NORTHWEST TO WEST FLOW WITH A LARGE SURFACE HIGH
BUILDING INTO THE AREA FRIDAY. LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS MORE
WESTERLY HELPING TO ADVECT IN SOME DRIER AIR, ALLOWING FOR
A DECREASE IN CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
CLOUDS MAY LINGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL OHIO INTO THE
EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY TO RANGE FROM THE MID 20S
NORTH TO THE LOWER 30S SOUTH.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT. LINGERING LOW CLOUDS TO DECREASE ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO
DURING THE EVENING WITH AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH FROM THE
SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE. LOWS TO
RANGE FROM 10 TO 15 DEGREES.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO GET SHUNTED OFF TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST ON SATURDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE HIGH, WHICH WILL BRING MILDER CONDITIONS TO THE CWA.
GENERALLY SPEAKING, PROGRESSIVE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE
ALOFT NEXT WEEK. THE GUIDANCE SUITE IS SPREAD AS FAR AS TIMING THE
FAST-MOVING DISTURBANCES MOVING EAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN STREAM AT
THIS TIME. FOR NOW, IT APPEARS A LOW-AMPLITUDE WAVE WILL SHIFT EAST
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. HAVE LOW CHANCE OF
RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM DUE TO LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE. HEADING INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY, A MORE DEFINED WAVE COULD BRING A
FRONTAL SYSTEM INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF POPS
AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE
TRACKING OFF TO THE EAST WITH NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY. LOW CLOUDS WILL REDEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA IN
THE CYCLONIC FAVORABLE FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS FAVORABLE
MOISTURE FETCH WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SHOWERS
MAINLY ACROSS KCMH/KLCK THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENING.
MVFR CEILINGS TO SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN TAF SITES
THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN ACROSS ALL BUT KCVG/KLUK OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR FROM THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE NOSES INTO THE AREA. THE EXCEPTION IS KCMH/KLCK WHERE
MVFR CEILINGS LOOK TO HANG ON LONGER.
NORTHWEST WINDS AT 12-15KTS WILL GUST UP TO 22KTS THIS AFTN INTO
EARLY EVENING AND THEN SUBSIDE TO 10KTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK... MVFR CIGS MAY INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON AT KCMH/KLCK.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...AR
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