866
FXUS61 KILN 210539
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1239 AM EST FRI FEB 21 2025
SYNOPSIS
COLD AIR FLOWING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL LEAD TO CLOUDS AND
SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN OFFER DRY WEATHER FRIDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ON TAP THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES RISE THIS WEEKEND BUT REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL. SEVERAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION RETURN BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A WARMER TEMPERATURE PATTERN DEVELOPS.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
WITH WINDS OFF OF THE LAKE, LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME BREAKS, CLOUDS WILL
BE PREVALENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR
MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA. THIS WILL ALSO BE WHERE THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED. LOWS IN THIS AREA WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE BELOW ZERO. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION WHERE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO THE TEENS. THERE ARE SOME
WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH, HOWEVER EXPECT THESE WIND GUSTS
TO DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/
CONFLUENT NORTHWEST TO WEST FLOW WITH A LARGE SURFACE HIGH
BUILDING INTO THE AREA FRIDAY. LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS MORE
WESTERLY HELPING TO ADVECT IN SOME DRIER AIR, ALLOWING FOR
A DECREASE IN CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
CLOUDS MAY LINGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL OHIO INTO THE
EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY TO RANGE FROM THE MID 20S
NORTH TO THE LOWER 30S SOUTH.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT. LINGERING LOW CLOUDS TO DECREASE ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO
DURING THE EVENING WITH AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH FROM THE
SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE. LOWS TO
RANGE FROM 10 TO 15 DEGREES.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO GET SHUNTED OFF TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST ON SATURDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE HIGH, WHICH WILL BRING MILDER CONDITIONS TO THE CWA.
GENERALLY SPEAKING, PROGRESSIVE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE
ALOFT NEXT WEEK. THE GUIDANCE SUITE IS SPREAD AS FAR AS TIMING THE
FAST-MOVING DISTURBANCES MOVING EAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN STREAM AT
THIS TIME. FOR NOW, IT APPEARS A LOW-AMPLITUDE WAVE WILL SHIFT EAST
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. HAVE LOW CHANCE OF
RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM DUE TO LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE. HEADING INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY, A MORE DEFINED WAVE COULD BRING A
FRONTAL SYSTEM INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF POPS
AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
PATCHY LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE TO THE S
THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH THE FIRST HOUR OR SO OF THE TAF
PERIOD, BUT ACTIVITY IS LIGHT ENOUGH AS TO NOT RESULT IN ANY
VSBY RESTRICTIONS. MAINLY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN THEREAFTER.
VSBYS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH ANY VFR CIGS
EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO MVFR BY 09Z AS AN EXPANSIVE CLOUD
SHIELD DRIFTS TO THE S OFF OF THE LAKES. THIS DECK WILL
OVERSPREAD THE REMAINING PARTS OF THE LOCAL AREA, LEADING TO
BKN/OVC CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST, IF NOT ALL, OF THE DAYTIME.
THERE IS A SIGNAL FOR THE CLOUD COVER TO HANG AROUND THROUGH
AT LEAST 18Z, WITH THE MOISTURE CAUGHT UNDERNEATH THE BL
INVERSION. AS SUCH, HAVE TRENDED THE FCST CLOUDIER, WITH SOME
SCATTERING OUT EXPECTED TOWARD/BEYOND 00Z FROM W TO E. NW WINDS
AROUND 10KTS WILL SUBSIDE TO 5KTS OR LESS WITHIN THE FIRST FEW
HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD, PERSISTING UNTIL GOING LIGHT/VRB
BY/AFTER 00Z SATURDAY.
OUTLOOK... MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AT
KCMH/KLCK. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...KC
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