024
FXUS61 KILN 211050
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
550 AM EST FRI FEB 21 2025
SYNOPSIS
LOW LEVEL FLOW OFF OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND
SCATTERED FLURRIES AROUND THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY BEFORE A
MODERATING TREND IN TEMPERATURES EVOLVES THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. SEVERAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION RETURN BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A WARMER TEMPERATURE PATTERN
DEVELOPS.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
NW FLOW WITHIN THE CLOUD-BEARING LAYER IS KEEPING SOME LAKE-
ENHANCED MOISTURE ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION, WITH LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF NOTABLE CHANGES EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE DAYTIME. WITH THIS IN MIND, DECIDED TO UP CLOUD COVER QUITE
A BIT FROM THE BLEND AND KEPT A MENTION OF FLURRIES IN THE FCST
GIVEN THE MOISTURE STILL IN THE DGZ. THIS IS GOING TO TRANSLATE
INTO MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES FOR MOST OF THE AREA
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY, WITH ONLY SOME SUBTLE SCATTERING OUT
EXPECTED LATE AFTERNOON IN THE TRI-STATE/SE AND EC IN.
THE PREVALENCE OF EXPANSIVE CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAYTIME
SHOULD KEEP TEMPS A BIT ON THE COLDER SIDE, TOO, DESPITE A
(RELATIVELY) WARMER MORNING AS TEMPS HAVE PLATEAUED IN THE MID
TO UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE CLOUD
DECK. FOR HIGHS, TEMPS SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER
30S AMIDST LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/
SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE AREA TONIGHT, WITH LL FLOW
GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE WESTERLY, AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHWESTERLY,
WHICH SHOULD HELP SCATTER OUT SOME OF THE LOW STRATUS BY
DAYBREAK SATURDAY. HOWEVER, IT IS NOT LIKELY TO BE COMPLETELY
CLEAR AS A WEAK MIDLEVEL DISTURBANCE RIPPLING THROUGH THE OH VLY
PROVIDES SOME ENHANCED MID/HIGH CLOUDS, KEEPING US MOSTLY
CLOUDY AS A WHOLE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. BUT DRY
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.
TEMPS TONIGHT AGAIN DIP INTO THE MID TEENS BEFORE REBOUNDING
INTO THE LOWER 30S (EC IN AND WC OH) TO LOWER 40S (LOWER SCIOTO
VALLEY/NE KY) BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AMIDST STEADY LIGHT SW SFC
FLOW. ALL IN ALL, A QUIETER WEATHER PATTERN.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
ON SATURDAY EVENING, A REGIME OF SOUTHWESTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
WILL BE SETTING UP OVER THE OHIO VALLEY, AS A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. A
WARMER STRETCH IS ON THE WAY AS A RESULT IN THIS CHANGE TO THE
PATTERN, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ON SUNDAY, AND
THEN 40S AND 50S THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
THE GENERAL PATTERN ALOFT WILL BE FOR PROGRESSIVE WNW FLOW, WITH A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES IN THE NORTHERN STREAM PASSING GENERALLY NORTH
OF THE AREA -- OR SIMPLY BRINGING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS. A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING SOME 25-30 MPH WINDS ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON, BUT NO RAIN IS EXPECTED. A SLIGHTLY STRONGER
SHORTWAVE ON TUESDAY WILL PROBABLY BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN, BUT
LIMITED MOISTURE ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE FORCING WILL ONLY
WARRANT 20-30 PERCENT CHANCES FOR NOW.
A MORE WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE, PERHAPS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE
LOW, WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
THIS WILL BRING A GREATER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION (STILL MOSTLY
RAIN) DURING THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY TIME FRAME, ALONG WITH
A DROP IN TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.
NO SIGNS OF ANYTHING HAZARDOUS WITH THIS SYSTEM, WITH GENERALLY
LIGHT RAIN AMOUNTS ON THE FRONT END, AND PERHAPS ONLY SOME LIGHT
SNOW MIXING IN ON THE BACK END. ALL IN ALL, NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE AFTERNOON, BUT
ACTIVITY IS LIGHT ENOUGH AS TO NOT RESULT IN ANY VSBY
RESTRICTIONS. VSBYS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH
AN EXPANSIVE DECK OF MVFR CIGS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS WILL LEAD TO BKN/OVC CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST, IF NOT ALL,
OF THE DAYTIME.
THERE IS A SIGNAL FOR THE CLOUD COVER TO HANG AROUND THROUGH
AT LEAST 18Z, WITH THE MOISTURE CAUGHT UNDERNEATH THE BL
INVERSION. AS SUCH, HAVE KEPT THE FCST CLOUDIER, WITH SOME
SCATTERING OUT EXPECTED TOWARD/BEYOND 00Z FROM W TO E. HOWEVER,
SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE OH VLY ONCE
AGAIN TOWARD DAYBREAK SATURDAY, SO THERE MAY ONLY BE A SMALL
WINDOW FOR CLEARING SKIES.
W WINDS AROUND 6-8KTS WILL PERSIST UNTIL GOING LIGHT/VRB
BY/AFTER 00Z SATURDAY BEFORE GOING OUT OF THE SW AT AROUND 5KTS
AFTER 06Z.
OUTLOOK... MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...KC
NEAR TERM...KC
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...HATZOS
AVIATION...KC
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