028
FXUS61 KILN 211704
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1204 PM EST FRI FEB 21 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER AND SLOWLY MODERATING
CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND. SEVERAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION
RETURN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A WARMER TEMPERATURE PATTERN
DEVELOPS.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
CLOUD COVER THAT HAS BEEN ENHANCED BY NORTHWEST FLOW OFF OF
LAKE MICHIGAN WILL LIKELY ERODE FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS WINDS SHIFT TOWARD THE WEST WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. OBSERVATIONS SHOW SUBSTANTIAL CLEARING
ENTERING FROM THE WEST DESPITE MODELS SUGGESTING MORE CLOUDS
PERSISTING. THE FORECAST REFLECTS A LEAN TOWARD OBSERVATIONS
COMPARED TO MODEL FORECASTS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WITH
MORE CLEARING BEING FORECASTS. REMNANT SNOW PACK, CLEARING
SKIES, AND CALM WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FORECAST LOWS TO DROP INTO
THE TEENS AREAWIDE.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED SOUTH OF THE OHIO
VALLEY ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS
THE AREA WILL HELP TO SLOWLY MODERATE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE TIME
PERIOD. HIGHS ON SATURDAY REACH INTO THE 30S WITH MOST LOCATIONS
FINALLY GETTING ABOVE FREEZING. SOME MORE ENHANCED CLOUD COVER IS
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING
THROUGH WHICH MAY LIMIT HIGHS SOMEWHAT. CLOUDS CLEAR LATER ON
SATURDAY AND LOWS ON SATURDAY NIGHT DROP INTO THE LOW 20S WHEN SKIES
CLEAR AND WINDS RELAX.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ON SATURDAY EVENING, A REGIME OF SOUTHWESTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
WILL BE SETTING UP OVER THE OHIO VALLEY, AS A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. A
WARMER STRETCH IS ON THE WAY AS A RESULT IN THIS CHANGE TO THE
PATTERN, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ON SUNDAY, AND
THEN 40S AND 50S THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
THE GENERAL PATTERN ALOFT WILL BE FOR PROGRESSIVE WNW FLOW, WITH A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES IN THE NORTHERN STREAM PASSING GENERALLY NORTH
OF THE AREA -- OR SIMPLY BRINGING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS. A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING SOME 25-30 MPH WINDS ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON, BUT NO RAIN IS EXPECTED. A SLIGHTLY STRONGER
SHORTWAVE ON TUESDAY WILL PROBABLY BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN, BUT
LIMITED MOISTURE ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE FORCING WILL ONLY
WARRANT 20-30 PERCENT CHANCES FOR NOW.
A MORE WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE, PERHAPS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE
LOW, WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
THIS WILL BRING A GREATER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION (STILL MOSTLY
RAIN) DURING THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY TIME FRAME, ALONG WITH
A DROP IN TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.
NO SIGNS OF ANYTHING HAZARDOUS WITH THIS SYSTEM, WITH GENERALLY
LIGHT RAIN AMOUNTS ON THE FRONT END, AND PERHAPS ONLY SOME LIGHT
SNOW MIXING IN ON THE BACK END. ALL IN ALL, NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
MVFR CEILINGS ARE MODERATELY LIKELY TO SCATTER THIS AFTERNOON AS
WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST. OBSERVATIONS SHOW CLEAR SKIES SLOWLY
WORKING IN FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER, MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING
SLOWING SCATTERING/CLEARING TO VFR. CONFLICTING GUIDANCE MAKES THE
FORECAST A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN SINCE OBSERVATIONS AND MODELS ARE NO
LINING UP WELL. THE FORECAST REFLECTS THE TRENDS OF THE OBSERVATIONS
AND HAS VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING THIS EVENING AND TRYING TO PERSIST
THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. A VFR CEILING IS LIKELY SATURDAY WHEN AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSES THROUGH.
WESTERLY WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT. SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS DEVELOP DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
OUTLOOK... MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...CAMPBELL
NEAR TERM...CAMPBELL
SHORT TERM...CAMPBELL
LONG TERM...HATZOS
AVIATION...CAMPBELL
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