383
FXUS61 KILN 212002
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
302 PM EST FRI FEB 21 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER AND SLOWLY MODERATING
CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND. SEVERAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION
RETURN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A WARMER TEMPERATURE PATTERN
DEVELOPS.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/
CLOUD COVER THAT HAS BEEN ENHANCED BY NORTHWEST FLOW OFF OF
LAKE MICHIGAN WILL LIKELY ERODE FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS WINDS SHIFT TOWARD THE WEST WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. OBSERVATIONS SHOW SUBSTANTIAL CLEARING
ENTERING FROM THE WEST DESPITE MODELS SUGGESTING MORE CLOUDS
PERSISTING. THE FORECAST REFLECTS A LEAN TOWARD OBSERVATIONS
COMPARED TO MODEL FORECASTS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WITH
MORE CLEARING BEING FORECASTS. REMNANT SNOW PACK, CLEARING
SKIES, AND CALM WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FORECAST LOWS TO DROP INTO
THE TEENS AREAWIDE.
SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED SOUTH OF THE OHIO
VALLEY ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS
THE AREA WILL HELP TO SLOWLY MODERATE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE TIME
PERIOD. HIGHS ON SATURDAY REACH INTO THE 30S WITH MOST LOCATIONS
FINALLY GETTING ABOVE FREEZING. SOME MORE ENHANCED CLOUD COVER IS
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING
THROUGH WHICH MAY LIMIT HIGHS SOMEWHAT. CLOUDS CLEAR LATER ON
SATURDAY AND LOWS ON SATURDAY NIGHT DROP INTO THE LOW 20S WHEN SKIES
CLEAR AND WINDS RELAX.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUNDAY, A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
PRESENT OVER EASTERN CONUS, WHICH WILL BRING US A REPRIEVE OF THE
ACTIVE WEATHER FROM THE PAST WEEK. A GENERAL WARMING PERIOD SETS UP
FOR THE NEXT WORK WEEK.
LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES... HIGHS ON SUNDAY TO REACH THE 40S ALONG
AND PRIMARILY SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR, AND 30S NORTH OF
THAT. SUNDAY NIGHT, EXPECT THE OVERNIGHT LOWS TO FALL TO THE UPPER
20S, LOW 30S. MONDAY, EXPECT HIGHS TO BE IN THE MID TO LOWER 50S
ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 AND UPPER 40S NORTH OF THERE.
OVERNIGHT, EXPECT LOWS AROUND 40. TUESDAY, WE EXPECT TO WARM UP EVEN
WARMER THAN MONDAY AND LOWS STILL DIPPING BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID
30S FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. WEDNESDAY MORE OF THE SAME IS EXPECTED WITH
TEMPERATURES, MAYBE CLOSE TO 60 DAY TIME HIGHS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
OHIO RIVER.
WE DO HAVE A CHANCE AT SOME ACTIVE WEATHER THIS WEEK WITH SOME
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. STARTING MONDAY,
SOME WNW FLOW ALOFT SETS INTO PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
US. MONDAY, SOME CLOUDS AND A CHANCE AT SOME GUSTY WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 20- 25 MPH OUT OF THE WEST/SOUTHWEST ARE POSSIBLE.
THEN, AS THAT MONDAY SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE EAST, IT IS FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE, BRINGING A CHANCE AT SOME PATCHY, LIGHT, LIQUID
PRECIPITATION AROUND TUESDAY. MORE NOTABLY HOWEVER, THE LATE
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME FRAME COULD HAVE A STRONGER WAVE MOVING
THROUGH, MAYBE DEVELOPING INTO A BROAD SURFACE LOW. WITH THIS WAVE,
EXPECT LIQUID PRECIPITATION TO FILL IN AS IT MOVES THROUGH, POSSIBLY
INCLUDING A RUMBLE OF THUNDER, MAINLY SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 70
CORRIDOR. THIS SYSTEM COULD ALSO BRING SOME GUSTIER WINDS AS WELL.
TOTAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FROM THE LATE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY SYSTEM
ARE STILL UNCERTAIN AT THE TIME GIVEN DISCREPANCIES IN MODEL
GUIDANCE.
ALL IN ALL, EXPECT SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK,
WITH MORE ACTIVE WEATHER POSSIBLE ON THE HORIZON.
AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
MVFR CEILINGS ARE MODERATELY LIKELY TO SCATTER THIS AFTERNOON AS
WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST. OBSERVATIONS SHOW CLEAR SKIES SLOWLY
WORKING IN FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER, MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING
SLOWING SCATTERING/CLEARING TO VFR. CONFLICTING GUIDANCE MAKES THE
FORECAST A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN SINCE OBSERVATIONS AND MODELS ARE NO
LINING UP WELL. THE FORECAST REFLECTS THE TRENDS OF THE OBSERVATIONS
AND HAS VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING THIS EVENING AND TRYING TO PERSIST
THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. A VFR CEILING IS LIKELY SATURDAY WHEN AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSES THROUGH.
WESTERLY WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT. SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS DEVELOP DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
OUTLOOK... MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...CAMPBELL
NEAR TERM...CAMPBELL
SHORT TERM...CAMPBELL
LONG TERM...HURD/CA
AVIATION...CAMPBELL
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