383
FXUS61 KILN 221829
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
129 PM EST SAT FEB 22 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER AND A SLOW MODERATION
OF TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND. SEVERAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION RETURN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A WARMER
WEATHER PATTERN DEVELOPS. SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED BY MIDWEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
WEST-NORTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
TRACKING THRU THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY. VANGUARD MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS COVER SOUTHERN OHIO AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY. AS THE
SHORTWAVE DEPARTS THE AREA THE CLOUDS WILL SCATTER OUT AND
DECREASE FROM THE THE WEST WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE LATE IN THE
DAY.
HIGHS TODAY WILL WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S ALONG AND NORTH
OF I-70 TO THE MID AND UPPER 30S ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10-15 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS PERSIST RIGHT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD
AS WELL AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS THE TN VLY. A MIX OF
MID/HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE AT TIMES THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY,
BUT PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE REGION,
PARTICULARLY S OF I-70.
TEMPS TONIGHT DIP TO AROUND 20 DEGREES AMIDST MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT SW FLOW BEFORE REBOUNDING TO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
ON SUNDAY EVENING, A REGIME OF SOUTHWESTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DRIFTING EAST OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN US COAST, AS
THE PATTERN BEGINS TO GET A LITTLE MORE ACTIVE. THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS WILL INITIALLY BE BETWEEN THE ACTIVE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN JET STREAMS, BUT EVENTUALLY, THE NORTHERN
STREAM WILL BRING SOME WEATHER INTO THE AREA.
THE GENERAL PATTERN ALOFT EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL BE FOR PROGRESSIVE
WNW FLOW, WITH THE FIRST SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM PASSING
WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL BRING SOME 25-30 MPH WINDS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON, BUT NO RAIN IS
EXPECTED. A SLIGHTLY STRONGER SHORTWAVE ON TUESDAY WILL BE A LITTLE
MORE LIKELY TO BRING SOME RAIN TO THE AREA. IT IS INTERESTING THAT
THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS QUITE DRY WITH THIS SYSTEM, AND THE
OPERATIONAL ECMWF IS MORE AMPLIFIED AND THUS PRODUCES MORE
PRECIPITATION. THE ENSEMBLE MEANS DO LEAN TOWARD THE OPERATIONAL
RUNS, BUT DEFINITELY SEEM TO BOTH FALL IN THE MIDDLE OF THE
OPERATIONAL RUN SCENARIOS. POPS WILL BE KEPT FAIRLY LOW, BUT SOME
LIGHT RAIN IS DEFINITELY A POSSIBILITY ON TUESDAY.
THE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL MEAN THAT TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY EACH DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN A WARM
ADVECTION PATTERN. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S ON
MONDAY, UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S ON TUESDAY, AND LOWER 50S TO AROUND
60 ON WEDNESDAY.
THE SHORTWAVE TRAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE ACTIVE FROM WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH ADDITIONAL WAVES BRINGING
CHANCES FOR RAIN (POSSIBLY MIXING WITH SNOW IN THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS DEPENDING ON TEMPERATURES AND TIMING) TO THE AREA. THERE WILL
ALSO BE A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BRINGING COOLER
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TOTAL PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS FROM THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY SYSTEMS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN, BUT
ALL IN ALL, NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THRU THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. MID
LEVEL CEILINGS ACROSS THE TAF SITES WILL SCATTER OUT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. ADDITIONAL
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SPILL INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10KTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL SUBSIDE TO
LESS THAN 10KTS TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK... MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...HATZOS
AVIATION...AR
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