748
FXUS61 KILN 270737
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
337 AM EDT THU MAR 27 2025
SYNOPSIS
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS, AND PERHAPS A FEW STORMS, ARE EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY BEFORE MUCH WARMER AIR BUILDS INTO THE
REGION FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN
CONTINUES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS EXPECTED BEFORE DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS BRIEFLY RETURN
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
A FEW SPRINKLES CONTINUE ACROSS THE ILN FA EARLY THIS MORNING,
PARTICULARLY ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/SOUTH-CENTRAL OH. BUT MOST SPOTS
WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH DAYBREAK, WITH THE SPRINKLES TAPERING OFF BY
SUNRISE. TEMPS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER 30S (NE) TO UPPER 30S
(SW).
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE LOCAL AREA
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE MORNING BEFORE SOME BETTER
MOISTURE/CLOUD COVER FILTERS INTO EC IN AND THE TRI-STATE BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. AMIDST PERSISTENT NW FLOW ALOFT, ANOTHER WEAK EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCE WILL PIVOT INTO THE REGION LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING, AGAIN PROVIDING ENOUGH FORCING WITHIN A NARROW NW-TO-SE
CORRIDOR TO INITIATE SOME ISO/SCT SHRA DEVELOPMENT/MAINTENANCE, EVEN
WITH A RELATIVELY DRY LL ENVIRONMENT. RIGHT NOW, THIS ACTIVITY LOOKS
TO POSITION ITSELF PRIMARILY FROM EC IN THROUGH THE TRI-STATE INTO N
KY, ALTHOUGH THE EXACT PLACEMENT REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN, EVEN AT
THESE RELATIVELY SHORT TIME RANGES. WHAT IS A BIT MORE CERTAIN IS
THE EXPECTATION FOR THE NE THIRD OF THE LOCAL AREA, ESPECIALLY
CENTRAL OH, TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAYTIME PERIOD, WITH THE
ISO/SCT ACTIVITY FOCUSING ACROSS THE SW THIRD BY/PAST MID AFTERNOON.
REGARDLESS OF EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE AXIS OF SPRINKLES/SHRA LATE IN
THE DAY, RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN VERY LIGHT IN NATURE, MAINLY
ON THE ORDER OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. HIGHS TODAY WILL
GENERALLY TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S, WITH WARMEST TEMPS
IN CENTRAL OH WHERE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL PREVAIL A BIT LONGER INTO
THE AFTERNOON. COULD EVEN SEE SOME MID 60S IN SOUTH-CENTRAL OH.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/
A RATHER SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE WILL BEGIN TO EVOLVE LATE
TONIGHT INTO THE DAY FRIDAY, ONE THAT IS LIKELY TO PERSIST FOR QUITE
SOME TIME ACROSS THE REGION. NW FLOW ALOFT THIS EVENING WILL BECOME
MORE ZONAL INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY FRIDAY AS MORE S/W ENERGY
TRANSLATES TO THE E WITHIN THE BURGEONING LL WARM SECTOR. THIS WILL
HELP PIVOT AN INITIALLY ILL-DEFINED WARM FRONT TO THE N/NE FRIDAY
MORNING, WITH WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE OH VLY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE
DAY FRIDAY.
COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA SHOULD INCREASE LOCALLY LATE TONIGHT, MAINLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT, AS LARGE-SCALE WAA/FRONTOGENESIS GETS UNDERWAY AND
EXPANDS EASTWARD THROUGH THE OH VLY. THIS LARGE-SCALE LIFT WILL OCCUR
ON THE NOSE OF A LLJ IMPINGING TO THE ENE THROUGH THE REGION,
RESULTING IN MASS/MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND A CORRESPONDING
BLOSSOMING OF PCPN DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS. ALTHOUGH PCPN AMOUNTS
SHOULD GENERALLY BE ONE HALF OF AN INCH OR LESS, THE COVERAGE OF
SHRA/TSRA SHOULD BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD LOCALLY AROUND DAYBREAK
FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH THERE ISN'T MUCH INSTBY WITHIN THE PROFILE, SOME TS
CERTAINLY CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS THIS ACTIVITY QUICKLY PUSHES TO THE
E, PRIMARILY FROM 09Z-15Z FRIDAY. A FEW LINGERING SHRA MAY PERSIST IN
THE FAR N INTO THE AFTERNOON, BUT A DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED FROM SW
TO NE INTO MIDDAY.
IN FACT, DECREASING CLOUD COVER AND INCREASING SW SFC FLOW SHOULD
HELP TEMPS REBOUND RATHER DRAMATICALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON FRIDAY,
WITH HIGHS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON.
PLENTIFUL LATE-DAY SUNSHINE WITH SW WINDS ON THE ORDER OF 15-18 KTS,
WITH GUSTS AROUND 25KTS, WILL HELP BUMP TEMPS IN A LATE-DAY RALLY,
DESPITE THE WIDESPREAD MORNING CLOUD COVER/SHRA/TSRA.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
DRY WEATHER WILL BE MAINTAINED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY DUE TO
LIMITED FORCING AND SOME WEAK SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING INTO THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. HOWEVER,
BEGINNING LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT,
AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OUT OF THE LOWER OHIO RIVER
VALLEY BRINGING SOME SHOWERS. DUE TO THE WEAKENING NATURE OF THE
WAVE AS WELL AS AN APPARENT LACK OF INSTABILITY, SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS
ARE UNLIKELY.
BETTER MID-LEVEL SUPPORT ARRIVES LATER ON SUNDAY. GUIDANCE IS
SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL OCCUR AS INSTABILITY LIKELY
STARTS TO INCREASE. THERE ARE MANY UNCERTAINTIES WITH THIS PART OF
THE FORECAST SINCE LINGERING CLOUD COVER FROM THE EARLIER SHOWERS
COULD LIMIT SURFACE HEATING. HOWEVER, WITH STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR IN
PLACE, WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS.
THE COLD FRONT ITSELF SHOULD SHIFT EAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
A RETURN TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND A WARMING TREND WEDNESDAY AHEAD
OF YET ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD WELL ABOVE NORMAL. AFTER A BRIEF
COOL DOWN MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WARM TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO CLOSE
THE PERIOD ON WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A FEW SPRINKLES WILL LINGER ABOUT KCMH/KLCK EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD,
BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD TREND DRY AREA-WIDE BY/PAST 09Z BEFORE
ADDITIONAL ISO/SCT SHRA MOVE BACK IN PAST 18Z. DO THINK THE BULK OF
THE DAYTIME ACTIVITY STAYS JUST TO THE SW OF EVEN KCVG/KLUK, BUT
HAVE ADDED A PROB30 FOR THESE SITES DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON TO
ACCOUNT FOR A FEW STRAY SHRA NEAR THE TERMINALS.
FEW/SCT MID CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT A BIT TOWARD/BEYOND 09Z, WITH
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES FAVORED IN THE SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD AROUND
DAYBREAK. SOME ADDITIONAL VFR CLOUDS WILL MOVE BACK IN FROM THE NW BY
THE AFTERNOON, PARTICULARLY FOR WRN SITES OF KDAY/KCVG/KLUK, BUT
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE FAVORED FURTHER TO THE E THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAYTIME. CLOUDS/SHRA WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AREA-WIDE TOWARD/BEYOND
06Z FRIDAY.
LIGHT/VRB WINDS THROUGH SUNRISE WILL SLOWLY GO MORE OUT OF THE WSW
AT 10-12KTS BY THE AFTERNOON BEFORE GOING MORE SOUTHERLY AT 5-10KTS
ONCE AGAIN TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...KC
NEAR TERM...KC
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...KC
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