376
FXUS61 KILN 271413
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1013 AM EDT THU MAR 27 2025
SYNOPSIS
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS, AND PERHAPS A FEW STORMS, ARE EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY BEFORE MUCH WARMER AIR BUILDS INTO THE
REGION FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN
CONTINUES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS EXPECTED BEFORE DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS BRIEFLY RETURN
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A WEAK EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE PIVOTING THRU
THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. WEAK 35-40 KT 8H
WEST-SOUTHWEST JET DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO THIS SHORTWAVE OFFERING
WEAK LIFT. THIS WEAK FORCING WILL LEAD TO A NARROW NW-TO-SE CORRIDOR
OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS LOCATED FROM EAST CENTRAL INDIANA
THROUGH THE TRI-STATE REGION INTO NORTHERN KENTUCKY. THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAYTIME PERIOD,
WITH DRY LOW LEVELS ANY PCPN WILL BE VERY LIGHT WITH ONLY UP TO A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY TOP OUT IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 MPH
THIS AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/
A RATHER SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE WILL BEGIN TO EVOLVE LATE
TONIGHT INTO THE DAY FRIDAY, ONE THAT IS LIKELY TO PERSIST FOR QUITE
SOME TIME ACROSS THE REGION. NW FLOW ALOFT THIS EVENING WILL BECOME
MORE ZONAL INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY FRIDAY AS MORE S/W ENERGY
TRANSLATES TO THE E WITHIN THE BURGEONING LL WARM SECTOR. THIS WILL
HELP PIVOT AN INITIALLY ILL-DEFINED WARM FRONT TO THE N/NE FRIDAY
MORNING, WITH WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE OH VLY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE
DAY FRIDAY.
COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA SHOULD INCREASE LOCALLY LATE TONIGHT, MAINLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT, AS LARGE-SCALE WAA/FRONTOGENESIS GETS UNDERWAY AND
EXPANDS EASTWARD THROUGH THE OH VLY. THIS LARGE-SCALE LIFT WILL OCCUR
ON THE NOSE OF A LLJ IMPINGING TO THE ENE THROUGH THE REGION,
RESULTING IN MASS/MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND A CORRESPONDING
BLOSSOMING OF PCPN DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS. ALTHOUGH PCPN AMOUNTS
SHOULD GENERALLY BE ONE HALF OF AN INCH OR LESS, THE COVERAGE OF
SHRA/TSRA SHOULD BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD LOCALLY AROUND DAYBREAK
FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH THERE ISN'T MUCH INSTBY WITHIN THE PROFILE, SOME TS
CERTAINLY CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS THIS ACTIVITY QUICKLY PUSHES TO THE
E, PRIMARILY FROM 09Z-15Z FRIDAY. A FEW LINGERING SHRA MAY PERSIST IN
THE FAR N INTO THE AFTERNOON, BUT A DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED FROM SW
TO NE INTO MIDDAY.
IN FACT, DECREASING CLOUD COVER AND INCREASING SW SFC FLOW SHOULD
HELP TEMPS REBOUND RATHER DRAMATICALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON FRIDAY,
WITH HIGHS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON.
PLENTIFUL LATE-DAY SUNSHINE WITH SW WINDS ON THE ORDER OF 15-18 KTS,
WITH GUSTS AROUND 25KTS, WILL HELP BUMP TEMPS IN A LATE-DAY RALLY,
DESPITE THE WIDESPREAD MORNING CLOUD COVER/SHRA/TSRA.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
DRY WEATHER WILL BE MAINTAINED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY DUE TO
LIMITED FORCING AND SOME WEAK SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING INTO THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. HOWEVER,
BEGINNING LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT,
AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OUT OF THE LOWER OHIO RIVER
VALLEY BRINGING SOME SHOWERS. DUE TO THE WEAKENING NATURE OF THE
WAVE AS WELL AS AN APPARENT LACK OF INSTABILITY, SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS
ARE UNLIKELY.
BETTER MID-LEVEL SUPPORT ARRIVES LATER ON SUNDAY. GUIDANCE IS
SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL OCCUR AS INSTABILITY LIKELY
STARTS TO INCREASE. THERE ARE MANY UNCERTAINTIES WITH THIS PART OF
THE FORECAST SINCE LINGERING CLOUD COVER FROM THE EARLIER SHOWERS
COULD LIMIT SURFACE HEATING. HOWEVER, WITH STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR IN
PLACE, WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS.
THE COLD FRONT ITSELF SHOULD SHIFT EAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
A RETURN TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND A WARMING TREND WEDNESDAY AHEAD
OF YET ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD WELL ABOVE NORMAL. AFTER A BRIEF
COOL DOWN MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WARM TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO CLOSE
THE PERIOD ON WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISO/SCT SHRA IS EXPECTED TO NUDGE BACK INTO FAR SW PARTS OF THE AREA
PAST 18Z. DO THINK THE BULK OF THE DAYTIME ACTIVITY STAYS JUST TO
THE SW OF EVEN KCVG/KLUK, BUT HAVE ADDED A PROB30 FOR THESE SITES
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR A FEW
STRAY SHRA NEAR THE TERMINALS DURING THIS TIME.
FEW/SCT MID CLOUDS ARE LINGERING ABOUT THE TRI-STATE, WITH MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES ELSEWHERE THROUGH 15Z. SOME ADDITIONAL VFR CLOUDS WILL
MOVE BACK IN FROM THE NW BY THE AFTERNOON, PARTICULARLY FOR WRN SITES
OF KDAY/KCVG/KLUK, BUT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE FAVORED FURTHER TO THE
E THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAYTIME. CLOUDS/SHRA WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
AREA-WIDE TOWARD/BEYOND 06Z FRIDAY, ALONG WITH SOME LLWS ON THE ORDER
OF ABOUT 40KTS, PARTICULARLY FOR KCVG/KLUK/KILN. THE WIDESPREAD
SHRA BY/PAST 09Z MAY LEAD TO SOME BRIEF MVFR VSBYS.
LIGHT/VRB WINDS WILL SLOWLY GO MORE OUT OF THE WSW AT 10-12KTS BY
THE AFTERNOON BEFORE GOING MORE OUT OF THE SSE AT 5-10KTS ONCE AGAIN
TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES EARLY FRIDAY THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...KC
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...KC
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