980
FXUS61 KILN 271944
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
344 PM EDT THU MAR 27 2025
SYNOPSIS
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS, AND PERHAPS A FEW EMBEDDED STORMS, ARE EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY BEFORE MUCH WARMER AIR BUILDS INTO THE
REGION FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN
CONTINUES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS EXPECTED BEFORE DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS BRIEFLY RETURN
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A WEAK EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE PIVOTING THRU
THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. WEAK 35-40 KT 8H
WEST-SOUTHWEST JET DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO THIS SHORTWAVE OFFERING
WEAK LIFT. THIS WEAK FORCING WILL LEAD TO A NARROW NW-TO-SE CORRIDOR
OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS LOCATED FROM EAST CENTRAL INDIANA
THROUGH THE TRI-STATE REGION INTO NORTHERN KENTUCKY. WITH DRY LOW
LEVELS ANY PCPN WILL BE VERY LIGHT WITH ONLY UP TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS
OF AN INCH THRU EARLY EVENING. THIS RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY
SHIFTS SOUTHWARD AND DECREASES LATER THIS EVENING.
THE NOSE OF LOW LEVEL 40-45KT JET ALONG WITH THE APPROACH OF A WARM
FRONT WILL LEAD TO AN ENHANCED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO DEVELOP INTO THE WEST AFTER 2 AM - SPREADING
EAST ACROSS THE AREA THRU 6 AM. ELEVATED INSTABILITY DEVELOPS LATE,
MAINLY ACROSS THE WEST - SO HAVE INCLUDED A MENTION OF THUNDER.
MILDER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 40S.
SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
PATTERN EVOLVES WITH NORTHWEST FLOW BECOMING MORE WESTERLY OVERNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. ONGOING WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS AT SUNRISE WILL LIFT NORTH AS WARM FRONT PIVOTS THRU
THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. PCPN ENDS AS HUMID AIR ARRIVES FROM THE
SOUTH. WITH INCREASING AFTERNOON SUNSHINE - TEMPERATURES RISE TO
HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 70S NORTH TO THE MID/UPPER 70S SOUTH. SOUTHWEST
WINDS INCREASE WITH GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON.
IN THE WARM SECTOR DRY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE WITH NO
FORCING EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. MILD CONDITIONS CONTINUE FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
SATURDAY WILL FEATURE WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS BY LATE MARCH
STANDARDS DUE TO PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION.
A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH QUICKLY
MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN ALL OVER THE
PLACE IN REGARDS TO PRECIPITATION COVERAGE DUE TO DIFFICULTY
RESOLVING THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT, BUT AT LEAST SOME SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT
WHEN A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA. THERE IS STILL LOADS OF UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDING THE TIMING,
COVERAGE, AND STRENGTH OF CONVECTION ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. WHILE
INCREASING SHEAR MAY OVERLAP PBL-BASED INSTABILITY LATER ON SUNDAY,
ANY MORNING CONVECTION OR LATE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY
NIGHT COULD SIGNIFICANTLY LIMIT MLCAPE AND THE SEVERE THREAT. FOR A
BETTER SEVERE THREAT TO DEVELOP, MORNING SHOWERS WOULD LIKELY NEED
TO CLEAR IN TIME FOR AFTERNOON INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP AND STORMS
WOULD ALSO NEED TO FORM WELL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. BOTH OF THESE CONDITIONS MIGHT BE DIFFICULT TO ACHIEVE.
HOPEFULLY MESOSCALE MODELS CAN PROVIDE MORE INSIGHT IN THE COMING
DAYS.
TEMPERATURES DROP FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK AFTER FROPA SUNDAY
NIGHT BEFORE REBOUNDING SOMEWHAT FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. RAIN
CHANCES ACCOMPANY THE RETURN OF MILD TEMPERATURES BY WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
INTO THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE AREA AFTER 21Z. THE BEST COVERAGE OF
OF SHOWER ACTIVITY STAYS JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF KCVG/KLUK, BUT
HAVE CONTINUED A PROB30 FOR THESE SITES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR A FEW STRAY SHRA NEAR THE TERMINALS
DURING THIS TIME.
EXPECT MID LEVEL CEILINGS THRU THE AFTERNOON WITH VFR CLOUDS AT 5000
TO 6000 FEET INTO THIS EVENING. CLOUDS AMD RAIN SHOWERS WILL INCREASE
AFTER 09Z TONIGHT, ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF LLWS FOR KCVG/KLUK.
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD ALL TAF SITES FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING WARM FRONT. EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS
TO DEVELOP WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR VISIBILITIES IN RAIN SHOWERS. A
PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL AT
KDAY EARLY FRIDAY. AS THE WARM FRONT PIVOTS NORTH ON FRIDAY
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR WITH RAIN ENDING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 10-12KTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BACK SOUTH TONIGHT AT
LESS THAN 10 KTS AND THEN INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 20-25
KTS FRIDAY.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...CAMPBELL
AVIATION...AR
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