867
FXUS61 KILN 280557
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
157 AM EDT FRI MAR 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS, AND PERHAPS A FEW EMBEDDED STORMS, ARE
EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT. MUCH WARMER AIR
ENTERS THE REGION BEHIND THIS FRONT AND LINGERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED BEFORE DRIER AND
COOLER CONDITIONS BRIEFLY RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 AM THIS MORNING/
SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO THE WEST OF METRO CINCY BEFORE DAYBREAK. THERE
COULD BE A SOUTHERN LIMIT ALONG THE I-74 CORRIDOR THAT WILL INHIBIT
ANY PRECIP FROM ENTERING NORTHERN KENTUCKY, WITH THE POSSIBLE
EXCEPTION WHERE THE SOUTHERN 275 LOOP CUTS THROUGH TO THE SOUTH OF
METRO CINCY. CURRENT FORECAST HAS LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL RAIN IN THE
SOUTH, BUT LATEST MODELS ARE INDICATING A SOUTHERN EDGE THAT WILL LIE
SOMEWHERE OVER NRN KY AND MARK THE RAIN/NO RAIN LIMIT. BLENDED MODELS
WHICH LIMITED MUCH OF THE RAIN OVER KY EARLY THIS MORNING TO THE
12-15Z TIME FRAME.
THE NOSE OF LOW LEVEL 40-45KT JET ALONG WITH THE APPROACH OF A WARM
FRONT WILL LEAD TO AN ENHANCED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO DEVELOP INTO THE WEST CLOSER TO 5 AM AND SPREAD
EAST THROUGH THE MORNING. COULD NOT FIND ANY STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT
OR UPWARD MOTION TO INCLUDE THUNDER IN THE FORECAST THROUGH EARLY
THIS MORNING, SO HAVE REMOVED THUNDER THROUGH 8 AM, AND CURTAILED IT
OVER THE SOUTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA THROUGH TOMORROW. MILDER
TEMPERATURES WILL SEE LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 40S.
SHORT TERM /10 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/
PATTERN EVOLVES WITH NORTHWEST FLOW BECOMING MORE WESTERLY OVERNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. ONGOING WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS AT SUNRISE WILL LIFT NORTH AS WARM FRONT PIVOTS THRU
THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. PCPN ENDS AS HUMID AIR ARRIVES FROM THE
SOUTH. WITH INCREASING AFTERNOON SUNSHINE - TEMPERATURES RISE TO
HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 70S NORTH TO THE MID/UPPER 70S SOUTH. SOUTHWEST
WINDS INCREASE WITH GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON.
IN THE WARM SECTOR DRY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE WITH NO
FORCING EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. MILD CONDITIONS CONTINUE FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
SATURDAY WILL FEATURE WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS BY LATE MARCH
STANDARDS DUE TO PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION.
A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH QUICKLY
MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN ALL OVER THE
PLACE IN REGARDS TO PRECIPITATION COVERAGE DUE TO DIFFICULTY
RESOLVING THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT, BUT AT LEAST SOME SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT
WHEN A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA. THERE IS STILL LOADS OF UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDING THE TIMING,
COVERAGE, AND STRENGTH OF CONVECTION ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. WHILE
INCREASING SHEAR MAY OVERLAP PBL-BASED INSTABILITY LATER ON SUNDAY,
ANY MORNING CONVECTION OR LATE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY
NIGHT COULD SIGNIFICANTLY LIMIT MLCAPE AND THE SEVERE THREAT. FOR A
BETTER SEVERE THREAT TO DEVELOP, MORNING SHOWERS WOULD LIKELY NEED
TO CLEAR IN TIME FOR AFTERNOON INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP AND STORMS
WOULD ALSO NEED TO FORM WELL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. BOTH OF THESE CONDITIONS MIGHT BE DIFFICULT TO ACHIEVE.
HOPEFULLY MESOSCALE MODELS CAN PROVIDE MORE INSIGHT IN THE COMING
DAYS.
TEMPERATURES DROP FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK AFTER FROPA SUNDAY
NIGHT BEFORE REBOUNDING SOMEWHAT FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. RAIN
CHANCES ACCOMPANY THE RETURN OF MILD TEMPERATURES BY WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
SCT TO NUMEROUS SHRA WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION WITHIN THE FIRST PART
OF THE TAF PERIOD, PARTICULARLY FROM 09Z-15Z, WITH GREATEST COVERAGE
LIKELY TO FOCUS NEAR KDAY/KILN/KCMH/KLCK BETWEEN 10Z-14Z. THERE
SHOULD BE SOME ISO TS TO ALSO CONTEND WITH, BUT THE TEMPORAL AND
SPATIAL SCALE SHOULD REMAIN A BIT MORE LIMITED, SO HAVE ONLY
INCLUDED MENTION IN A TEMPO FOR NRN SITES AT THIS TIME.
BKN TO OVC 4-7KFT CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE
SLOWLY ERODING FROM SW TO NE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD YIELD
INCREASINGLY CLEAR SKIES AFTER 18Z, WHICH WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR FAIRLY
DEEP VERTICAL MIXING. WITH A LLJ STILL ORIENTED FROM WSW TO ENE
ACROSS THE REGION, THIS SHOULD CREATE BREEZY CONDITIONS ON THE ORDER
OF 15-18KTS, WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25-30KTS, BY 21Z. WINDS WILL
SUBSIDE TO 15KTS OR LESS BY/AFTER 00Z. SOME LLWS ON THE ORDER OF
40KTS IS EXPECTED AT KCVG/KLUK/KILN BETWEEN ABOUT 09Z-13Z AND AGAIN
TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.
VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z BEFORE SCATTERING OUT A BIT. SOME
ADDITIONAL SHRA MAY APPROACH FROM THE SW ONCE AGAIN TOWARD END OF
KCVG 30-HR TAF AROUND 12Z SATURDAY.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...CAMPBELL
AVIATION...KC
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