623
FXUS61 KILN 280650
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
250 AM EDT FRI MAR 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS, AND PERHAPS A FEW EMBEDDED STORMS, ARE EXPECTED
EARLY THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT. MUCH WARMER AIR FILTERS
INTO THE REGION BY THIS AFTERNOON AND LINGERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED BEFORE DRIER AND
COOLER CONDITIONS BRIEFLY RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
SCT SHRA ARE BEGINNING TO SPROUT ON THE NOSE OF A SEASONABLY STRONG
LLJ IMPINGING TO THE ENE THROUGH THE OH VLY, RESULTING IN
MASS/MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND A CORRESPONDING BLOSSOMING OF SHRA
COVERAGE THROUGH DAYBREAK. LARGE-SCALE WAA/FRONTOGENESIS IS GETTING
UNDERWAY AND THE CORRESPONDING SHRA ACTIVITY WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE
EASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. INITIALLY, THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE
OVERCOMING SOME DRY AIR IN THE LLS, SO RATES WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT
NEAR THE ONSET.
ALTHOUGH PCPN AMOUNTS SHOULD GENERALLY BE ONE THIRD OF AN INCH OR
LESS (WITH ISO HIGHER AMOUNTS IN HEAVIER ACTIVITY), THE COVERAGE OF
SHRA/TSRA SHOULD BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD LOCALLY AROUND DAYBREAK,
ESPECIALLY NEAR/N OF THE OH RVR. ALTHOUGH THERE ISN'T MUCH INSTBY
WITHIN THE PROFILE, SOME TS CERTAINLY WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THIS
ACTIVITY QUICKLY PUSHES TO THE E, PRIMARILY THROUGH 15Z. A FEW
LINGERING SHRA MAY PERSIST IN THE FAR N (N OF I-70) INTO THE
AFTERNOON, BUT A DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED FROM SW TO NE INTO MIDDAY.
IN FACT, DECREASING CLOUD COVER AND INCREASING SW SFC FLOW SHOULD
HELP TEMPS REBOUND RATHER DRAMATICALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON, WITH
HIGHS INTO THE LOWER 70S (CENTRAL OH) TO UPPER 70S (TRI-STATE/N KY).
PLENTIFUL LATE-DAY SUNSHINE WITH SW WINDS ON THE ORDER OF 15-18 KTS,
WITH GUSTS AROUND 25-30KTS, WILL HELP BUMP TEMPS IN A LATE-DAY
RALLY, DESPITE THE WIDESPREAD MORNING CLOUD COVER/SHRA/TSRA.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/
ZONAL MIDLEVEL FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO MORE SW FLOW ALOFT TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY AS A WEAKENING S/W PROGRESSES TO THE NE THROUGH THE
LOWER MS RVR VLY INTO THE OH VLY BY LATE DAY SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD
PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING AND LIFT AMIDST A SUFFICIENTLY-SATURATED
PROFILE TO ALLOW FOR FAIRLY WIDESPREAD LIGHT SHRA ONCE AGAIN PAST MID
AFTERNOON, PARTICULARLY NEAR/W OF I-71. FOR POINTS FURTHER TO THE SE,
ESPECIALLY FOR THE LOWER SCIOTO VALLEY, CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN
MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY, WITH THE BETTER COVERAGE
FOCUSING ACROSS W/NW PARTS OF THE ILN FA.
WITH THIS IN MIND, TEMPS WILL BE HELD A BIT COOLER (HIGHS IN UPPER
60S) FOR W/NW PARTS OF THE LOCAL AREA, WITH HIGHS STILL EXPECTED TO
REACH INTO THE UPPER 70S IN THE LOWER SCIOTO VALLEY AND NE KY BY
LATE AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
INITIAL SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OUT OF THE LOWER OHIO RIVER
VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING BRINGING SHOWERS. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE LACKING INSTABILITY DESPITE A WARM BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS
APPEARS TO BE DUE TO MID-LEVEL RIDGING PRESENT OVER OUR CWA ALONG
WITH RELATIVELY WARM AIR ALOFT AT THAT TIME.
BETTER MID-LEVEL SUPPORT ARRIVES LATER ON SUNDAY. ECMWF IS SHOWING
THE POTENTIAL FOR A PRE-FRONTAL LINE OF CONVECTION MOVING THROUGH
THE CWA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING HOURS. THIS WILL OCCUR
AS INSTABILITY LIKELY STARTS TO INCREASE. THERE ARE MANY
UNCERTAINTIES WITH THIS PART OF THE FORECAST SINCE LINGERING CLOUD
COVER FROM THE EARLIER SHOWERS COULD LIMIT SURFACE HEATING. IN FACT,
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AREN'T VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH SB OR MLCAPE AT THIS
TIME, WITH MUCH OF THE INSTABILITY BEING ELEVATED. HOWEVER, WITH
STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR IN PLACE AND A CHANCE OF DESTABILIZATION, WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
IN THE HWO PRODUCT.
THE COLD FRONT ITSELF SHOULD SHIFT EAST EARLY MONDAY MORNING. COLDER
AIR WILL ARRIVE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A RETURN
TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND A WARMING TREND WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A
SERIES OF WAVES LIFTING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD WELL ABOVE NORMAL. AFTER A BRIEF
COOL DOWN MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WARM TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO CLOSE
THE PERIOD ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
SCT TO NUMEROUS SHRA WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION WITHIN THE FIRST PART
OF THE TAF PERIOD, PARTICULARLY FROM 09Z-15Z, WITH GREATEST COVERAGE
LIKELY TO FOCUS NEAR KDAY/KILN/KCMH/KLCK BETWEEN 10Z-14Z. THERE
SHOULD BE SOME ISO TS TO ALSO CONTEND WITH, BUT THE TEMPORAL AND
SPATIAL SCALE SHOULD REMAIN A BIT MORE LIMITED, SO HAVE ONLY
INCLUDED MENTION IN A TEMPO FOR NRN SITES AT THIS TIME.
BKN TO OVC 4-7KFT CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE
SLOWLY ERODING FROM SW TO NE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD YIELD
INCREASINGLY CLEAR SKIES AFTER 18Z, WHICH WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR FAIRLY
DEEP VERTICAL MIXING. WITH A LLJ STILL ORIENTED FROM WSW TO ENE
ACROSS THE REGION, THIS SHOULD CREATE BREEZY CONDITIONS ON THE ORDER
OF 15-18KTS, WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25-30KTS, BY 21Z. WINDS WILL
SUBSIDE TO 15KTS OR LESS BY/AFTER 00Z. SOME LLWS ON THE ORDER OF
40KTS IS EXPECTED AT KCVG/KLUK/KILN BETWEEN ABOUT 09Z-13Z AND AGAIN
TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.
VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z BEFORE SCATTERING OUT A BIT. SOME
ADDITIONAL SHRA MAY APPROACH FROM THE SW ONCE AGAIN TOWARD END OF
KCVG 30-HR TAF AROUND 12Z SATURDAY.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...KC
NEAR TERM...KC
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...KC
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