916
FXUS61 KILN 281304
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
904 AM EDT FRI MAR 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS, AND PERHAPS A FEW EMBEDDED STORMS, ARE EXPECTED
EARLY THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT. MUCH WARMER AIR FILTERS
INTO THE REGION BY THIS AFTERNOON AND LINGERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED BEFORE DRIER AND
COOLER CONDITIONS BRIEFLY RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT
AND LLJ LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE AREA. MUCAPE IS SUPPORTING SMALL
HAIL AND EMBEDDED THUNDER WITHIN THE STRONGEST CELLS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PROGRESS NORTH BY AFTERNOON AS THE WARM
FRONT LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA. WARM CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S
ARE EXPECTED ALONG WITH MIXED CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE. SOME STRONGER WIND
GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS STRONGER WINDS ALOFT
MAY GET MIXED DOWN DUE TO DIURNAL MIXING.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/
ZONAL MIDLEVEL FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO MORE SW FLOW ALOFT TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY AS A WEAKENING S/W PROGRESSES TO THE NE THROUGH THE
LOWER MS RVR VLY INTO THE OH VLY BY LATE DAY SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD
PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING AND LIFT AMIDST A SUFFICIENTLY-SATURATED
PROFILE TO ALLOW FOR FAIRLY WIDESPREAD LIGHT SHRA ONCE AGAIN PAST MID
AFTERNOON, PARTICULARLY NEAR/W OF I-71. FOR POINTS FURTHER TO THE SE,
ESPECIALLY FOR THE LOWER SCIOTO VALLEY, CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN
MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY, WITH THE BETTER COVERAGE
FOCUSING ACROSS W/NW PARTS OF THE ILN FA.
WITH THIS IN MIND, TEMPS WILL BE HELD A BIT COOLER (HIGHS IN UPPER
60S) FOR W/NW PARTS OF THE LOCAL AREA, WITH HIGHS STILL EXPECTED TO
REACH INTO THE UPPER 70S IN THE LOWER SCIOTO VALLEY AND NE KY BY
LATE AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
INITIAL SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OUT OF THE LOWER OHIO RIVER
VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING BRINGING SHOWERS. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE LACKING INSTABILITY DESPITE A WARM BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS
APPEARS TO BE DUE TO MID-LEVEL RIDGING PRESENT OVER OUR CWA ALONG
WITH RELATIVELY WARM AIR ALOFT AT THAT TIME.
BETTER MID-LEVEL SUPPORT ARRIVES LATER ON SUNDAY. ECMWF IS SHOWING
THE POTENTIAL FOR A PRE-FRONTAL LINE OF CONVECTION MOVING THROUGH
THE CWA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING HOURS. THIS WILL OCCUR
AS INSTABILITY LIKELY STARTS TO INCREASE. THERE ARE MANY
UNCERTAINTIES WITH THIS PART OF THE FORECAST SINCE LINGERING CLOUD
COVER FROM THE EARLIER SHOWERS COULD LIMIT SURFACE HEATING. IN FACT,
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AREN'T VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH SB OR MLCAPE AT THIS
TIME, WITH MUCH OF THE INSTABILITY BEING ELEVATED. HOWEVER, WITH
STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR IN PLACE AND A CHANCE OF DESTABILIZATION, WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
IN THE HWO PRODUCT.
THE COLD FRONT ITSELF SHOULD SHIFT EAST EARLY MONDAY MORNING. COLDER
AIR WILL ARRIVE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A RETURN
TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND A WARMING TREND WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A
SERIES OF WAVES LIFTING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD WELL ABOVE NORMAL. AFTER A BRIEF
COOL DOWN MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WARM TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO CLOSE
THE PERIOD ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
SCT TO NUMEROUS SHRA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 15Z, WITH GREATEST
COVERAGE LIKELY TO FOCUS NEAR KDAY/KILN/KCMH/KLCK THROUGH LATE
MORNING. THERE SHOULD BE SOME TS TO ALSO CONTEND WITH, BUT THE
TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL SCALE SHOULD REMAIN A BIT MORE LIMITED, SO HAVE
ONLY INCLUDED A TEMPO TS AT THIS TIME.
BKN TO OVC 4-7KFT CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE MORNING BEFORE
SLOWLY ERODING FROM SW TO NE BY MID AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD YIELD
INCREASINGLY CLEAR SKIES AFTER 18Z, WHICH WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR FAIRLY
DEEP VERTICAL MIXING. WITH A LLJ STILL ORIENTED FROM WSW TO ENE
ACROSS THE REGION, THIS SHOULD CREATE BREEZY CONDITIONS ON THE ORDER
OF 15-18KTS, WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25-30KTS, BY 21Z. WINDS WILL
SUBSIDE TO 15KTS OR LESS BY/AFTER 00Z. SOME LLWS ON THE ORDER OF
40-45KTS IS EXPECTED THROUGH 14Z AND AGAIN PAST 03Z.
VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z BEFORE SCATTERING OUT A BIT. SOME
ADDITIONAL SHRA MAY APPROACH FROM THE SW ONCE AGAIN TOWARD 12Z
SATURDAY.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...KC
NEAR TERM...CAMPBELL
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...KC
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