355
FXUS61 KILN 281714
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
114 PM EDT FRI MAR 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
MUCH WARMER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND LINGERS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED
BEFORE DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS BRIEFLY RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
A WARM FRONT, AND IT'S ASSOCIATED CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION, HAVE
MOSTLY LIFTED NORTH OF THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A MIX OF SUN
AND CLOUDS HAS DEVELOPED BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG WITH INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW. WINDS MAY GUST UPWARD OF 25 OR 30 MPH BEFORE
NOCTURNAL DECOUPLING BEGINS THIS EVENING SINCE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT
COULD BE MIXED DOWN BY DIURNAL MIXING. AFTER SUNSET, WIND GUSTS
SHOULD CALM DOWN, BUT SOUTHERLY WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE. FORECAST LOWS
ONLY DROP TO NEAR 60 WHICH IS WELL ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS, FOR LATE MARCH STANDARDS, WILL BE IN
PLACE ON SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. TO START THE DAY OFF, DRY
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST BEFORE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
MODELS ARE STILL DEPICTING A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
LLJ MOVING THROUGH THE AREA STARTING LATER IN THE DAY WHICH SHOULD
BRING SOME SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE OR
LEAD TO ANY FLOODING ISSUES SINCE FORCING IS WEAK AND INSTABILITY IS
MINIMAL. FORECAST HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL MAKE A RUN INTO THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER 70S BEFORE THE ONSET OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS LATE. FORECAST
LOWS ON SATURDAY NIGHT ONLY DROP TO AROUND 60.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
INITIAL SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OUT OF THE LOWER OHIO RIVER
VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING BRINGING SHOWERS. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE LACKING INSTABILITY DESPITE A WARM BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS
APPEARS TO BE DUE TO MID-LEVEL RIDGING PRESENT OVER OUR CWA ALONG
WITH RELATIVELY WARM AIR ALOFT AT THAT TIME.
BETTER MID-LEVEL SUPPORT ARRIVES LATER ON SUNDAY. ECMWF IS SHOWING
THE POTENTIAL FOR A PRE-FRONTAL LINE OF CONVECTION MOVING THROUGH
THE CWA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING HOURS. THIS WILL OCCUR
AS INSTABILITY LIKELY STARTS TO INCREASE. THERE ARE MANY
UNCERTAINTIES WITH THIS PART OF THE FORECAST SINCE LINGERING CLOUD
COVER FROM THE EARLIER SHOWERS COULD LIMIT SURFACE HEATING. IN FACT,
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AREN'T VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH SB OR MLCAPE AT THIS
TIME, WITH MUCH OF THE INSTABILITY BEING ELEVATED. HOWEVER, WITH
STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR IN PLACE AND A CHANCE OF DESTABILIZATION, WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
IN THE HWO PRODUCT.
THE COLD FRONT ITSELF SHOULD SHIFT EAST EARLY MONDAY MORNING. COLDER
AIR WILL ARRIVE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A RETURN
TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND A WARMING TREND WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A
SERIES OF WAVES LIFTING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD WELL ABOVE NORMAL. AFTER A BRIEF
COOL DOWN MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WARM TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO CLOSE
THE PERIOD ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FOR THE TAF PERIOD. ONLY SOME VFR CUMULUS
IS EXPECTED. AFTER 1800Z SATURDAY, CLOUD COVER INCREASES AND THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPS BY THE OVERNIGHT.
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE LIKELY THROUGH 0000Z SATURDAY. WINDS
SHOULD RELAX A BIT OVERNIGHT BEFORE INCREASING ONCE AGAIN ON
SATURDAY. SOUTHWESTERLY LLWS DEVELOPS TONIGHT DUE TO A LLJ.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...CAMPBELL
NEAR TERM...CAMPBELL
SHORT TERM...CAMPBELL
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CAMPBELL
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