639
FXUS61 KILN 290528
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
128 AM EDT SAT MAR 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
IN THE WAKE OF A WARM FRONT, UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL BE
FOUND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS
OVER THE AREA TO THE EAST ON MONDAY AND BRING A MORE SEASONABLE
AIRMASS TO THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH MIDWEEK. ON WEDNESDAY, ANOTHER
WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE REGION, BRINGING ABUNDANT
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN ITS WAKE.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
STRONG SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE
TODAY WILL DIE OUT SIGNIFICANTLY ONCE THE SUN SETS. MEAN WINDS WILL
REMAIN ON THE HIGHER SIDE OVERNIGHT, AROUND 10-20 MPH. CONTINUED
INFILTRATION OF WARMER AIR ON THESE STRONG WINDS WILL ONLY PERMIT LOW
TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO WITHIN A DEGREE OF 60 REGION WIDE.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS, FOR LATE MARCH STANDARDS, WILL BE IN
PLACE ON SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. TO START THE DAY OFF, DRY
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST BEFORE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
MODELS ARE STILL DEPICTING A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
LLJ MOVING THROUGH THE AREA STARTING LATER IN THE DAY WHICH SHOULD
BRING SOME SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE OR
LEAD TO ANY FLOODING ISSUES SINCE FORCING IS WEAK AND INSTABILITY IS
MINIMAL. FORECAST HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL MAKE A RUN INTO THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER 70S BEFORE THE ONSET OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS LATE. FORECAST
LOWS ON SATURDAY NIGHT ONLY DROP TO AROUND 60.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
A COMPLEX FORECAST IS IN STORE FOR THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD,
WITH A SHORTWAVE OVER THE PLAINS TRIGGERING SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OFF
TO OUR WEST. BY SUNDAY MORNING, THIS OPEN WAVE SURFACE LOW WILL BE
LOCATED OVER THE OZARKS WITH QUITE THE WARM SECTOR IN PLACE OVER
MUCH OF EASTERN CONUS. SUNDAY HIGH TEMPS RISE TO THE LOW 70S WITH
GUSTY WINDS AROUND 25 MPH THANKS TO STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW. THERE ARE
STILL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GUIDANCE (CAMS STILL HAVEN'T EVEN RESOLVED
THE WHOLE EVENT), BUT THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A SPLOTCHY SIGNAL FOR
AFTERNOON WARM SECTOR SHOWERS, THOUGH THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD HAVE MOVED EAST SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY AM. HOWEVER,
SHOULD THESE SHOWERS MATERIALIZE, THIS INCREASED CLOUD COVER MAY
INHIBIT DAYTIME SURFACE HEATING.
BY SUNDAY EVENING, THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE MOVING OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND THE ILN CWA WILL STILL BE IN THE OPEN WARM SECTOR. DEW
POINTS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S, THOUGH PROBABILISTIC
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS TDS INTO THE LOW 60S ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE OHIO
RIVER. ALOFT, A MID LEVEL JET WILL BE MOVING OVER THE AREA,
PROVIDING STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES.
IN TERMS OF SEVERE THREAT... SOME UNCERTAINTIES EXIST, LARGELY DUE
TO TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS. THE LARGER SYSTEM WILL PULL A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE LATE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO
MONDAY MORNING, FORCING PRECIP ALONG AND, POSSIBLY, OUT IN FRONT OF
IT.
NATURALLY, AN EARLIER PASSAGE (OR EVENING STORMS FORCED OUT AHEAD OF
THE FRONT PASSAGE IN THE WARM SECTOR) WOULD TAP INTO MORE DIURNAL
INSTABILITY, STEEPER LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES, AND WARMER SURFACE
TEMPS. THESE FACTORS, COMBINED WITH THE STRONG SHEAR PROFILES, WOULD
SUGGEST THAT STRONG/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WOULD BE OUR MAIN HAZARD,
HOWEVER LARGE HAIL AND A TORNADO OR TWO COULD NOT BE RULED OUT.
SHOULD WE HAVE A LATER FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE OVERNIGHT, STORMS
WOULD HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY LESS INSTABILITY/ WEAKER LAPSE RATES TO TAP
INTO AND MAY NOT BE REALIZED TO THEIR FULL POTENTIAL.
MEANWHILE, PWATS WILL BE BETWEEN 1-1.5 INCHES FOR A SUBSTANTIAL
PERIOD OF TIME WHILE THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION, WITH
STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION OCCURRING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH, HEAVY RAINFALL RATES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH MORE
ROBUST SHOWERS/STORMS AND WE'LL LIKELY HAVE SOME SWATHS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL.
BY MONDAY, THE FRONT WILL EITHER BE THROUGH THE CWA OR MOVING
THROUGH AND SHOWERS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS, THOUGH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE USHERED IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE SYSTEM. IN FACT, MONDAY NIGHT'S LOW TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO
THE 30S... AROUND 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAY NIGHT. WEAK RIDGING
AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN BY TUESDAY AND THE AREA WILL DRY
OUT, WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70,
UPPER 50S ALONG AND SOUTH OF OHIO RIVER. HOWEVER, THIS REPRIEVE IS
SHORT LIVED. EXTENDED ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ALREADY SUGGESTS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE THROUGH THAT WILL SUPPORT A DEEP SURFACE LOW MOVING
THROUGH CENTRAL/EASTERN CONUS MID TO LATE WEEK. OVERALL, THE PATTERN
AHEAD LOOKS TO REMAIN QUITE UNSETTLED.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 12Z AS SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS
STREAM BACK IN FROM THE S TOWARD DAYBREAK AND BEYOND. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL THAT A SMALL PATCH OF SHRA DEVELOPS AND MOVES FROM SW TO NE
BETWEEN ABOUT 12Z-16Z, SO HAVE ADDED A PROB30 FOR EACH OF THE
TERMINALS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS LOW-END POTENTIAL. HOWEVER, THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAYTIME SHOULD BE DRY, WITH A MIX OF BKN MID/HIGH
CLOUDS THROUGH 00Z. TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD, ISO/SCT SHRA WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE ONCE AGAIN FROM THE SW, WITH FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE EVOLVING BETWEEN 06Z-12Z SUNDAY.
VFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST, IF NOT ALL, OF THE PERIOD BEFORE
SOME MVFR CIGS FILTER IN BETWEEN 06Z-12Z SUNDAY. SW WINDS AROUND
10KTS WILL INCREASE TO 12-15KTS, WITH GUSTS AROUND 20-25KTS, DURING
THE AFTERNOON BEFORE SUBSIDING A BIT TOWARD/BEYOND SUNSET TO 10KTS
OR LESS. SW LLWS ON THE ORDER OF 40-45KTS IS EXPECTED THROUGH 13Z
AREA-WIDE.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...CA
NEAR TERM...CAMPBELL/FRANKS
SHORT TERM...CAMPBELL
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...KC
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