540
FXUS61 KILN 291041
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
641 AM EDT SAT MAR 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND
BEFORE A BRIEF COOLDOWN EVOLVES EARLY IN THE WORKWEEK. SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE DRIER
CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN
RETURNS ONCE AGAIN BY MIDWEEK AND BEYOND, WITH A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WORKWEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
WHILE SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS OUR N, SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS
CONTINUE TO WORK THEIR WAY BACK INTO THE AREA, WITH SKIES GENERALLY
TRENDING CLOUDIER THROUGH DAYBREAK. ALONG WITH THE INFLUX OF CLOUDIER
SKIES, A FEW ISO SHRA COULD BE POSSIBLE VERY BRIEFLY THIS MORNING,
MOVING SW TO NE ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE POP TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS POTENTIAL, BUT DO THINK THAT MOST, IF NOT ALL, OF
THE AREA IS DRY BY THE AFTERNOON AMIDST SOME FILTERED SUNSHINE.
HAVE GONE ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY WITH SOME FILTERED SUNSHINE
EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON AND MODEST SW LL FLOW. ALTHOUGH IT MOST
LIKELY WON'T BE QUITE AS WARM AS WAS THE CASE FRIDAY, DO THINK THAT
HIGHS TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS LARGE PORTIONS OF THE
AREA, WITH THE BEST CHANCE TO HIT THE 80-DEGREE MARK CENTERED ACROSS
THE LOWER SCIOTO VALLEY AND N/NE KY. RH VALUES MAY DIP CLOSE TO 25%
IN THESE AREAS BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON, WITH HIGHER RH VALUES
ELSEWHERE. SW WINDS ON THE ORDER OF 12-15KTS WILL GUST CLOSE TO 25KTS
AT TIMES.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/
A WEAKENING S/W WILL PROGRESS TO THE NE THOUGH THE TN/OH VLY TONIGHT,
BRINGING A BIT MORE IN THE WAY OF LIFT/MOISTURE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCT SHRA LATE THIS EVENING, WHICH WILL BECOME
NUMEROUS IN COVERAGE AFTER MIDNIGHT. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A
STRAY TS, BUT DO THINK THAT THIS WILL BE ISO AT BEST. RAINFALL, IN
GENERAL, WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE THE ACTIVITY BECOMES MORE ISO IN
COVERAGE BY MID/LATE MORNING. UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPS ARE ON TAP
TONIGHT WITH LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE LOWER 60S.
ONCE THE SHRA COVERAGE WANES INTO EARLY AFTERNOON, THE FOCUS WILL
QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL, WHICH WILL LIKELY
MAXIMIZE LOCALLY FROM THE EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE FIRST ITEM OF INTEREST TO KEEP AN EYE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING WILL BE THE DESTABILIZATION EFFORTS, ESPECIALLY IN THE WAKE
OF AM CONVECTION/THICK CLOUDS LOCALLY. THE OPEN WARM SECTOR SHOULD
BECOME FIRMLY ESTABLISHED INITIALLY OFF TO THE W OF THE LOCAL AREA BY
THE AFTERNOON, CHARACTERIZED BY SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO EVEN
MID 60S. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY THE CASE AS CONVECTION SHOULD
ALREADY BE UNDERWAY NEAR THE MO/IL LINE BY EARLY AFTERNOON, WITH ENE
PROGRESSION OF THE STORMS INTO A RAPIDLY DESTABILIZING ENVIRONMENT
DOWNSTREAM.
AS THE SFC LOW MOVES FROM ERN IA INTO N IL AND S WI BY LATE DAY,
PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION SHOULD BE EXPANDING IN COVERAGE ACROSS
CENTRAL IL INTO CENTRAL IN AMIDST A FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1500-2000+ J/KG
AND STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF ABOUT 50KTS. THIS
COMBINATION OF LIFT/ASCENT (COURTESY OF THE S/W PIVOTING INTO THE WRN
OH VLY AND UNDERTAKING A SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT) WITH AMPLE INSTBY AND
STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SUGGESTS AN INTENSIFICATION OF CONVECTION
WILL BE ONGOING IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM OF THE LOCAL AREA BY LATE
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. GIVEN THE STRONGER FORCING, UPSCALE
GROWTH APPEARS PROBABLE AS THE STORMS BEGIN TO ENTER THE LOCAL AREA
TOWARD SUNSET AND BEYOND, SO THE EXPECTATION IS THAT THE GREATEST
THREAT WILL BE STRONG/DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS, PARTICULARLY IF
THE LINEAR STRUCTURE EXHIBITS SOME BOWING TENDENCIES. THE LL BULK
SHEAR VECTOR WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 40KTS AT ABOUT 260 DEGREES,
SUGGESTING ANY N-S ORIENTED SEGMENT WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR
SURGES OF /SIGNIFICANT SEVERE/ WIND GUSTS AS WELL AS AN EMBEDDED
TORNADO RISK PAST 6 PM SUNDAY. ADDITIONALLY, STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES SUGGEST A LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL AS WELL.
ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SEVERAL UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING THE DETAILS OF THE
EVENT THAT STILL NEED TO BE DETERMINED, WE ARE BEGINNING TO SEE A
CLEARER PICTURE OF THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME LOCALLY. SOME OF THE
DETAILS THAT WILL ULTIMATELY DICTATE THE SCOPE OF SEVERE THREAT WILL
BE HOW FAR E THE BEST INSTBY REMAINS INTACT AND WHETHER IT WILL
ATTEMPT TO PINCH-OFF WITH SE EXTENT TOWARD/BEYOND 06Z MONDAY.
ADDITIONALLY, THERE ARE SOME QUESTIONS STILL REGARDING HOW MUCH A
BOWING/LINEAR SEGMENT THAT WOULD TRAVERSE THE LOCAL AREA BETWEEN 00Z
AND 06Z WOULD REDUCE COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF CONVECTION ALONG THE
FRONT ITSELF, WHICH WILL BE LAGGING BACK TO THE W QUITE A BIT. THIS
WOULD DETERMINE THE SCOPE AND LENGTH OF TIME OF GREATEST SEVERE
THREAT BECAUSE ANY STRONGER/BOWING SEGMENT THAT CLEARS THE ENTIRE
LOCAL AREA BETWEEN 00Z-06Z WOULD LIKELY SQUASH THE LL THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT IN ITS WAKE, SUGGESTING THAT ANY STORMS ALONG THE FRONT
AFTER 06Z WOULD MAINLY BE NON-SEVERE IN NATURE. BUT THIS STILL
REMAINS SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION.
BOTTOM LINE IS THAT, WITH THE FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC
ENVIRONMENT DEVELOPING, PARTICULARLY FOR LOCALES NEAR/W OF I-71 WHERE
THE BEST OVERLAP WILL BE, SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO EVOLVE LATE
SUNDAY EVENING INTO EARLY IN THE OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THE STRONG WESTERLY
LL BULK SHEAR AND AT LEAST SOME VEERING OF WINDS IN THE LL PROFILE,
EMBEDDED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN WITHIN THE STRONGEST LINE
SEGMENTS. ANY DISCRETE/CELLULAR ACTIVITY (FAVORED CLOSER TO THE TRI-
STATE AND N KY AND TO THE SW OF THE LOCAL AREA) WOULD ONLY ACT TO
INCREASE THAT POTENTIAL (AS WELL AS THE LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL),
ALTHOUGH THIS STORM MODE APPEARS LESS LIKELY THIS FAR NE INTO THE OH
VLY.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS BRIEFLY MENTIONED ABOVE, STORM MODE WILL PLAY AN IMPORTANT ROLE
IN WHICH THREAT DOMINATES SUNDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
FORCING AND HIGHER VALUES OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL BE MORE
DOMINANT AS WE GO NORTH CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW AND MID-LEVEL WAVE
IN THE GREAT LAKES, WITH INSTABILITY HIGHER FURTHER TO THE SOUTH.
THEREFORE, WE MAY SEE MORE OF A LINEAR MODE TO THE NORTH, WITH
DISCREET OR CLUSTERED SUPERCELLS FURTHER SOUTH. THIS ALIGNS WITH THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER'S HATCHED HAIL AND TORNADO THREAT AREAS JUST
TO OUR SOUTHWEST WITH HIGHER SEVERE WIND THREATS EXTENDING INTO OUR
WESTERN COUNTIES. WE WILL NEED TO SEE HOW THIS EVOLVES OVER THE NEXT
24-36 HOURS TO OBTAIN MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT TIMING AND
LOCATION DETAILS OF THIS EVENT.
THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST THROUGH OUR AREA MONDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES MAY REACH THEIR PEAK EARLY IN THE DAY, WITH STEADY OR
SLOWLY FALLING TEMPERATURES DURING THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS SHOULD END
EARLY, LEAVING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THE REST OF THE DAY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ON TUESDAY, OFFERING FAIR AND COOL WEATHER.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO SHOW DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER STRONG
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTING OUR WEATHER STARTING WEDNESDAY. STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL BRING WARM AND MOIST AIR
BACK NORTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE DIFFERENCE WITH THIS MID TO
LATE WEEK PATTERN WILL LIKELY BE A STALLED OR SLOW-MOVING FRONTAL
SYSTEM NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA. AFTER A POTENTIAL SEVERE
STORM THREAT WEDNESDAY EVENING, ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN COULD CAUSE AN
EXTENDED FLOODING THREAT LASTING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS
ADDITIONAL WAVES MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY. WE WILL
NEED TO FOLLOW THIS CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS TO FOCUS IN
ON THE DETAILS.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAYTIME AS SOME
MID/HIGH CLOUDS STREAM BACK IN FROM THE S. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SMALL
PATCHES OF SHRA TO MOVE FROM SW TO NE BETWEEN ABOUT 12Z-16Z, BUT HAVE
MAINTAINED A DRY FCST FOR NOW. A MIX OF BKN MID/HIGH CLOUDS IS
EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z. TOWARD/BEYOND 06Z, ISO/SCT SHRA WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE ONCE AGAIN FROM THE SW, WITH FAIRLY WIDESPREAD COVERAGE
EVOLVING BETWEEN 09Z-12Z SUNDAY.
VFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 06Z BEFORE SOME MVFR CIGS FILTER IN
BETWEEN 06Z-12Z SUNDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME BRIEF IFR CIGS OR EVEN
MVFR VSBYS TOWARD VERY END OF PERIOD AS PROFILE BECOMES A BIT MORE
SATURATED AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY. SW WINDS AROUND 10KTS WILL
INCREASE TO 12-15KTS, WITH GUSTS AROUND 20-25KTS, DURING THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE SUBSIDING A BIT TOWARD/BEYOND SUNSET TO 10KTS OR
LESS.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...KC
NEAR TERM...KC
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...KC
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