366
FXUS61 KILN 292003
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
403 PM EDT SAT MAR 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND
BEFORE A BRIEF COOL DOWN DEVELOPS EARLY IN THE WORKWEEK. SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE DRIER
CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE
STRONG TO SEVERE SUNDAY NIGHT. A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN RETURNS
ONCE AGAIN BY MIDWEEK AND BEYOND, WITH A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORKWEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/
MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST WITH FLOW BACKING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
AS MAIN TROF IS CARVED OUT IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
OVER EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO
DAMPEN OUT AND WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
OVERNIGHT. RAIN SHOWER CHANCES INCREASE ACROSS THE WEST AFTER SUNSET
AND PCPN COVERAGE BECOMES WIDESPREAD AS THIS REGION OF FORCING SHIFTS
EAST ACROSS THE AREA. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORM, BUT THIS WOULD BE ISOLATED. GENERALLY EXPECT RAINFALL
THRU SUNDAY MORNING TO BE ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS.
WARM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WITH LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER 50S TO
THE LOWER 60S.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 TO 30 MPH AT
TIMES EARLY - DROP OFF TO 10 TO 15 MPH OVERNIGHT.
SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
FOCUS IS ON SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY
NIGHT.
ONGOING SHOWERS DUE TO A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THRU THE AREA DECREASE
IN COVERAGE FROM WEST TO EAST FROM LATE MORNING THRU EARLY AFTERNOON.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS AS IT TRACKS FROM THE MID MS VALLEY INTO
THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. WIND FIELDS INCREASE AHEAD OF
THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW AND OPEN WARM SECTOR TO OUR WEST
DESTABILIZES DURING THE EARLY AFTN AS A PLUME OF LOWER 60S DEWPOINTS
ADVECTS NORTH AHEAD OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2000 J/KG INTO ILN/S
WESTERN COUNTIES LATE IN THE DAY. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
CONVECTIVE TIMING ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME OF THE CAM SOLUTIONS AS
EARLY AS 5 PM IN THE FORM OF A FEW DISCRETE CELLS ACROSS EASTERN
INDIANA AND WESTERN OHIO. THIS PROBABILITY RAMPS UP AS WE HEAD INTO
EARLY EVENING AND MORE FAVORABLE FORCING COMES INTO PLAY. EVENTUALLY
EXPECT A MORE ORGANIZED LINE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO WESTERN
COUNTIES OF THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING. STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW MAY
PROMOTE BOWING SEGMENTS AND EMBEDDED CIRCULATIONS WITHIN THE LINE.
THIS BROKEN LINE TRACKS EAST ACROSS ILN/S AREA THRU THE EVENING INTO
THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE GREATEST THREAT WILL BE STRONG TO DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.
WITH FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL SHEAR THERE IS A RISK FOR EMBEDDED
TORNADOES, WITH THE HIGHEST THREAT ACROSS ILN/S SOUTHWEST COUNTIES.
ADDITIONALLY, STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUGGEST A LARGE HAIL
POTENTIAL AS WELL.
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT EVENTUALLY DECREASES AS THE STORMS HEAD TO
THE EAST OVERNIGHT BUT UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON HOW QUICKLY THE STORMS
DECREASE MOST LIKELY AFTER 06Z IN THE EAST.
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPS EAST THRU THE AREA LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. THE THREAT FOR POST FRONTAL SHOWERS CONTINUES
INTO MONDAY - ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEAST WITH MID LEVEL TROF
REMAINING TO THE WEST.
TEMPERATURES TURN COOLER MONDAY IN THE POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT WITH
HIGHS FROM NEAR 50 NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S SOUTHEAST.
READINGS IN THE EAST WILL LIKELY HIT THESE HIGHS EARLY AND THEN DROP
OFF AND LEVEL OUT IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE PUSHED TROUGH THE REGION BY MONDAY MORNING,
THOUGH SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER OVER THE REGION. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON,
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TAKES OVER AND HIGH TEMPERATURES REACH THE LOW
50S (WEST)TO MID 60S (CENTRAL OH/KY). MONDAY NIGHT STAYS DRY AS WEAK
RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLE IN AND LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE PROMOTE SOME CLEARING. OVERNIGHT LOWS FALL TO SOME OF THE
COLDEST OF THE WEEK- UPPER 20S ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70 AND MID 30S
ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. RIDGING/ HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN PRESENT TUESDAY,
THOUGH SLOWLY SLIDING EAST AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUES.
LOOKING AHEAD, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE LARGER FLOW OFF TO OUR WEST, DRAGGING A SURFACE LOW WITH
IT. THIS SURFACE LOW IS DISRUPTED SLIGHTLY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER
THE ROCKIES, BUT QUICKLY RE-INTENSIFIES ON THE LEE-SIDE OF THE
MOUNTAINS, MATURING AS IT MOVES OVER THE PLAINS. ILN ENTERS INTO
IT'S BROAD WARM SECTOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW TAKING OVER. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE
REINTRODUCED TO THE FORECAST, ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS, AND YET
ANOTHER SHOT AT THUNDERSTORMS, PARTICULARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. WITH THAT BEING SAID... CIPS/CSU/SPC ALL HAVE A DAY 5
HIGHLIGHT REACHING UP INTO THE TRI-STATE.
AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH, IT LOOKS TO LAY OUT SOME TYPE OF
BOUNDARY THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. IN ADDITION TO THE MENTION OF
SEVERE ABOVE, WPC ALSO HAS THE AREA HIGHLIGHTED UNDER A SLIGHT RISK
FOR THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK. AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
BOUNDARY LAYS OUT, IT LOOKS AS THOUGH WE'LL GET MULTIPLE SYSTEMS
THAT RIDE ALONG IT FROM MID TO END OF WEEK, BRINGING MULTIPLE ROUNDS
OF HEAVY RAINFALL. WHERE THIS BOUNDARY SETS UP WILL BE THE BIG
QUESTION AND WILL DEFINE WHERE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST QPF WILL OCCUR.
EITHER WAY, MIGHT BE A GOOD TIME NOW TO CHECK YOUR SUMP PUMPS AND
GET A FLOOD PLAN IN PLACE IF YOU LIVE IN A PRONE AREA.
AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THE AREA IS IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH MID LEVEL CEILINGS AND MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS THRU THE AFTERNOON. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLD SHOWER
MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST BUT IMPACTS WILL BE SHORT IN DURATION.
MOISTURE AND LIFT INCREASE WITH COVERAGE OF SHOWERS INCREASING AFTER
03Z FROM THE SW, WITH MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE DEVELOPING AFTER
09Z.
VFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 06Z WITH MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME BRIEF IFR CEILINGS WITH THE BEST
THREAT AT KDAY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL PUSH
OFF TO THE EAST LATE MORNING THRU EARLY AFTN WITH A GENERAL LULL IN
PCPN ACTIVITY UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY. MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECT TO
IMPROVE TO VFR WITH THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING INTO THE
WESTERN TAF SITES AFTER 21Z. SOME OF THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE INTO SUNDAY EVENING.
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 1O-15KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25KTS TODAY BEFORE
SUBSIDING AROUND SUNSET TO AROUND 10KTS. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY. SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...AR
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