581
FXUS61 KILN 300536
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
136 AM EDT SUN MAR 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND
BEFORE A BRIEF COOL DOWN DEVELOPS EARLY IN THE WORKWEEK. SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE DRIER
CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE
STRONG TO SEVERE SUNDAY NIGHT. A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN RETURNS
ONCE AGAIN BY MIDWEEK AND BEYOND, WITH A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WORKWEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
IN AN INCREASING WARM, MOIST REGIME, AN EMBEDDED MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE LOWER OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS
INTO THE MID OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. WEAK LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE, ALONG WITH SOME LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE, WILL SPREAD SHOWERS
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA. CLOUDY SKIES AND SOUTHERLY FLOW,
OCCASIONALLY GUSTY, WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WARM. LOWS WILL ONLY LOWER
INTO THE UPPER 50S TO THE LOWER 60S.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/
FOCUS IS ON SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
SUNDAY NIGHT.
ONGOING SHOWERS DUE TO A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THRU THE AREA
DECREASE IN COVERAGE FROM WEST TO EAST FROM LATE MORNING THRU EARLY
AFTERNOON.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS AS IT TRACKS FROM THE MID MS VALLEY
INTO THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. WIND FIELDS INCREASE AHEAD
OF THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW AND OPEN WARM SECTOR TO OUR WEST
DESTABILIZES DURING THE EARLY AFTN AS A PLUME OF LOWER 60S DEWPOINTS
ADVECTS NORTH AHEAD OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2000 J/KG INTO ILN/S
WESTERN COUNTIES LATE IN THE DAY. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
CONVECTIVE TIMING ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME OF THE CAM SOLUTIONS AS
EARLY AS 5 PM IN THE FORM OF A FEW DISCRETE CELLS ACROSS EASTERN
INDIANA AND WESTERN OHIO. THIS PROBABILITY RAMPS UP AS WE HEAD INTO
EARLY EVENING AND MORE FAVORABLE FORCING COMES INTO PLAY. EVENTUALLY
EXPECT A MORE ORGANIZED LINE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO WESTERN
COUNTIES OF THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING. STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW MAY
PROMOTE BOWING SEGMENTS AND EMBEDDED CIRCULATIONS WITHIN THE LINE.
THIS BROKEN LINE TRACKS EAST ACROSS ILN/S AREA THRU THE EVENING INTO
THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE GREATEST THREAT WILL BE STRONG TO DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.
WITH FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL SHEAR THERE IS A RISK FOR EMBEDDED
TORNADOES, WITH THE HIGHEST THREAT ACROSS ILN/S SOUTHWEST COUNTIES.
ADDITIONALLY, STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUGGEST A LARGE HAIL
POTENTIAL AS WELL.
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT EVENTUALLY DECREASES AS THE STORMS HEAD TO
THE EAST OVERNIGHT BUT UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON HOW QUICKLY THE STORMS
DECREASE MOST LIKELY AFTER 06Z IN THE EAST.
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPS EAST THRU THE AREA LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. THE THREAT FOR POST FRONTAL SHOWERS CONTINUES
INTO MONDAY - ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEAST WITH MID LEVEL TROF
REMAINING TO THE WEST.
TEMPERATURES TURN COOLER MONDAY IN THE POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT WITH
HIGHS FROM NEAR 50 NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S SOUTHEAST.
READINGS IN THE EAST WILL LIKELY HIT THESE HIGHS EARLY AND THEN DROP
OFF AND LEVEL OUT IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE PUSHED TROUGH THE REGION BY MONDAY MORNING,
THOUGH SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER OVER THE REGION. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON,
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TAKES OVER AND HIGH TEMPERATURES REACH THE LOW
50S (WEST)TO MID 60S (CENTRAL OH/KY). MONDAY NIGHT STAYS DRY AS WEAK
RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLE IN AND LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE PROMOTE SOME CLEARING. OVERNIGHT LOWS FALL TO SOME OF THE
COLDEST OF THE WEEK- UPPER 20S ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70 AND MID 30S
ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. RIDGING/ HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN PRESENT TUESDAY,
THOUGH SLOWLY SLIDING EAST AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUES.
LOOKING AHEAD, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE LARGER FLOW OFF TO OUR WEST, DRAGGING A SURFACE LOW WITH
IT. THIS SURFACE LOW IS DISRUPTED SLIGHTLY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER
THE ROCKIES, BUT QUICKLY RE-INTENSIFIES ON THE LEE-SIDE OF THE
MOUNTAINS, MATURING AS IT MOVES OVER THE PLAINS. ILN ENTERS INTO IT'S
BROAD WARM SECTOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW TAKING OVER. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE
REINTRODUCED TO THE FORECAST, ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS, AND YET ANOTHER
SHOT AT THUNDERSTORMS, PARTICULARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. WITH THAT BEING SAID... CIPS/CSU/SPC ALL HAVE A DAY 5
HIGHLIGHT REACHING UP INTO THE TRI-STATE.
AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH, IT LOOKS TO LAY OUT SOME TYPE OF
BOUNDARY THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. IN ADDITION TO THE MENTION OF
SEVERE ABOVE, WPC ALSO HAS THE AREA HIGHLIGHTED UNDER A SLIGHT RISK
FOR THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK. AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
BOUNDARY LAYS OUT, IT LOOKS AS THOUGH WE'LL GET MULTIPLE SYSTEMS THAT
RIDE ALONG IT FROM MID TO END OF WEEK, BRINGING MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL. WHERE THIS BOUNDARY SETS UP WILL BE THE BIG QUESTION
AND WILL DEFINE WHERE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST QPF WILL OCCUR. EITHER
WAY, MIGHT BE A GOOD TIME NOW TO CHECK YOUR SUMP PUMPS AND GET A
FLOOD PLAN IN PLACE IF YOU LIVE IN A PRONE AREA.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
SCT SHRA WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS TOWARD/BEYOND 09Z, WITH FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE EXPECTED FROM 10Z-16Z BEFORE ACTIVITY BECOMES
MORE ISO ONCE AGAIN THEREAFTER. THE INCREASED COVERAGE IN THE SEVERAL
HOUR PERIOD AROUND/AFTER DAYBREAK WILL LEAD TO A MOISTENING OF THE
LL PROFILE, ALLOWING FOR CIGS TO LOWER FROM VFR TO MVFR, AND
POTENTIALLY EVEN IFR VERY BRIEFLY. WIDESPREAD CIGS AROUND 1500FT
DURING THE MORNING WILL SLOWLY LIFT TO ABOUT 2500FT AFTER 18Z BEFORE
BRIEFLY RETURNING TO VFR TOWARD 06Z FOLLOWING THE WIDESPREAD
SHRA/TSRA DURING THE EVENING.
ISO SHRA/TSRA IS EXPECTED TO LINGER/REDEVELOP ACROSS SRN PARTS OF
THE AREA THROUGH MID AFTERNOON, PARTICULARLY NEAR KCVG/KLUK/KILN.
HOWEVER, AN ABRUPT INCREASE IN COVERAGE IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 22Z-04Z
AS A LARGE COMPLEX OF TSRA WORKS ITS WAY E THROUGH THE REGION. TRIED
TO TIME OUT THE IMPACTS OF VSBY REDUCTIONS AT EACH TERMINAL WITH A
TEMPO GROUP OF TSRA. THERE WILL ALSO BE ABRUPT CHANGES IN WIND
SPEED/DIRECTION COINCIDENT WITH THE TSRA, BUT HAVE KEPT OUT OF
OFFICIAL FCST FOR NOW UNTIL TIMING/IMPACTS BECOME A BIT CLEARER.
THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT COVERAGE OF ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE
FOR THE LOCAL TERMINALS BETWEEN 04Z-06Z, WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THEREAFTER.
A WIND SHIFT TO OUT OF THE NW WILL OCCUR AROUND 09Z MONDAY FOR KCVG,
WITH CIGS EXPECTED TO RETURN BACK TO MVFR WITH THE FROPA.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN/AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...KC
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