919
FXUS61 KILN 301033
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
633 AM EDT SUN MAR 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE A
BRIEF COOL DOWN DEVELOPS EARLY IN THE WORKWEEK. SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN RETURNS ONCE
AGAIN BY MIDWEEK AND BEYOND, WITH A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORKWEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
SCT SHRA IS BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS IN COVERAGE AND THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE THROUGH DAYBREAK AND BEYOND. WHILE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE 1/4 OF AN INCH OR LESS, THE COVERAGE SHOULD
BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD THROUGH 15Z BEFORE SLOWLY BECOMING MORE ISO
INTO EARLY/MID AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, THIS ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST/LINGER
WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON AS MOIST ASCENT GRADUALLY INCREASES ACROSS
THE AREA AHEAD OF THE MAIN COMPLEX(ES) OF STORMS SET TO MOVE THROUGH
THE LOCAL AREA THIS EVENING.
THE FIRST ITEM OF INTEREST TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
THE DESTABILIZATION EFFORTS, ESPECIALLY IN THE WAKE OF WIDESPREAD
SHRA/THICK CLOUDS LOCALLY. THE OPEN WARM SECTOR SHOULD BECOME FIRMLY
ESTABLISHED INITIALLY OFF TO THE W OF THE LOCAL AREA BY THE
AFTERNOON, CHARACTERIZED BY SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO EVEN MID
60S. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY THE CASE AS CONVECTION SHOULD ALREADY BE
UNDERWAY NEAR THE MO/IL LINE BY EARLY AFTERNOON, WITH ENE
PROGRESSION OF THE STORMS INTO A RAPIDLY DESTABILIZING ENVIRONMENT
DOWNSTREAM INTO IN AND WRN OH AND N KY.
AS THE SFC LOW MOVES FROM ERN IA INTO N IL AND S WI BY LATE DAY,
PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION SHOULD BE EXPANDING IN COVERAGE ACROSS
CENTRAL IL INTO CENTRAL IN AMIDST A FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1200-1500+ J/KG
AND STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF ABOUT 50KTS. THIS
COMBINATION OF LIFT/ASCENT (COURTESY OF THE S/W PIVOTING INTO THE WRN
OH VLY AND UNDERTAKING A SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT) WITH AMPLE INSTBY AND
STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SUGGESTS AN INTENSIFICATION OF CONVECTION
WILL BE ONGOING IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM OF THE LOCAL AREA BY LATE
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING ACROSS IN. GIVEN THE STRONGER FORCING,
UPSCALE GROWTH APPEARS PROBABLE AS THE STORMS BEGIN TO ENTER THE
LOCAL AREA AROUND 22Z, SO THE EXPECTATION IS THAT THE GREATEST
THREAT WILL BE STRONG/DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS, PARTICULARLY IF
THE LINEAR STRUCTURE EXHIBITS SOME BOWING TENDENCIES. THE LL BULK
SHEAR VECTOR WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 40KTS AT ABOUT 260 DEGREES,
SUGGESTING ANY N-S ORIENTED SEGMENT WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR
SURGES OF WIDESPREAD SEVERE WIND GUSTS AS WELL AS AN EMBEDDED TORNADO
RISK PAST 22Z. ADDITIONALLY, STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES COURTESY OF
A REMNANT EML SUGGEST LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL AS WELL, WITH THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL EXISTING NEAR/W OF I-75.
THE MAIN TORNADIC CONCERN WILL LIKELY EVOLVE ALONG THE TAIL (SRN)
END OF ANY BOWING STRUCTURES WHERE A MIXED STORM MODE SETUP IS MOST
PROBABLE. GIVEN THE LATEST NEAR-TERM HI-RES DATA, THIS APPEARS TO BE
MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR NEAR THE TRI-STATE INTO SE IN, FAR SW OH, AND N
KY BETWEEN 22Z-02Z. IT IS ON THE SRN FLANK OF ANY BOWING/LINEAR
STRUCTURES THAT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CAREFULLY FOR TORNADOGENESIS,
WHICH CERTAINLY APPEARS POSSIBLE GIVEN THE AMBIENT LL DIRECTIONAL
AND SPEED SHEAR. ADDITIONALLY, THE ORTHOGONAL NATURE OF THE LL BULK
SHEAR VECTOR TO THE LINEAR ORIENTATION COULD MEAN AT LEAST SOME
POTENTIAL FOR LINE-EMBEDDED TORNADOES AS WELL, WITH THAT THREAT
EXTENDING ALONG THE ENTIRE EXPANSE OF THE LINE OF STORMS.
WHAT HAS BECOME A BIT CLEARER IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF A FASTER
PROGRESSION OF THE STORM THREAT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA THIS EVENING,
WITH MOST (IF NOT ALL) OF THE SEVERE THREAT COMING TO AN END AS
EARLY AS 03Z. ADDITIONALLY, THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD WANE
WITH EASTWARD EXTENT, WITH A LESS FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT
ACROSS CENTRAL OH INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL OH AND NE KY PAST 03Z.
WITH THIS IN MIND, DO THINK THAT THE COMPLEX THAT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA THROUGH MIDNIGHT WILL REDUCE COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF CONVECTION
ALONG THE FRONT ITSELF, WHICH WILL BE LAGGING BACK TO THE W QUITE A
BIT. IT IS LIKELY THAT THE LL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL BE
SQUASHED FOR THE OVERNIGHT, SUGGESTING THAT ANY STORMS ALONG THE
FRONT BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND DAYBREAK WOULD LIKELY BE NON-SEVERE IN
NATURE.
BOTTOM LINE IS THAT, WITH THE FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC
ENVIRONMENT DEVELOPING, AS WELL AS THE INCREASED FORCING AND DEEP-
LAYER WIND FIELDS, SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO EVOLVE THIS EVENING,
WITH THE GREAT SEVERE THREAT LIKELY FOCUSING ACROSS THE WRN 2/3 TO
3/4 OF THE LOCAL AREA BETWEEN 22Z-03Z.
HIGHS TODAY WILL REACH INTO THE LOWER 70S BEFORE CAA EVOLVES AREA-
WIDE TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY/
QUIETER CONDITIONS EVOLVE AREA-WIDE ON MONDAY AS THE FRONT CLEARS THE
AREA IN THE SEVERAL HOURS AROUND SUNRISE MONDAY. A SHRA MAY LINGER IN
FAR SE PARTS OF THE ILN FA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON, INCLUDING SOME
POST- FRONTAL ACTIVITY. HOWEVER, DRIER CONDITIONS EVOLVE AREA-WIDE BY
LATE IN THE DAY, WITH TEMPS NEARLY-STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING THROUGH
THE 50S AND INTO THE 40S BY LATE DAY NEAR/W OF I-71. OVC SKIES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY WITH A STIFF NW WIND ON THE ORDER OF
15-20KTS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ON TUESDAY, OFFERING FAIR AND
COOL WEATHER.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO SHOW DEVELOPMENT OF AN INTENSE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTING OUR REGION STARTING WEDNESDAY. AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER
LATE IN THE DAY, BUT HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH PERSISTENT MID-LEVEL
RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL IMPEDE THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESS
OF THE FRONT. THERE APPEARS TO BE AN INCREASING SIGNAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE STORM RISK LATE WEDNESDAY DUE TO STRONG WIND
FIELDS AND INCREASING INSTABILITY. IN ADDITION, AS THE FRONT SLOWS,
TRAINING OF CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW IS LIKELY TO
CAUSE AN EXTENDED FLOODING THREAT. THE THREAT WILL BEGIN WEDNESDAY
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT AND MAY LAST INTO THE WEEKEND AS ADDITIONAL
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY.
CRITICAL AREAS OF UNCERTAINTY STEM FROM THE EXACT POSITION OF THE
STALLED BOUNDARY ALONG WITH THE STRENGTH OF ADDITIONAL WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY THURSDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN FRIDAY
NIGHT. ENSEMBLE DATA FROM THE EPS SHOWS A 20-30% PROBABILITY FOR
TOTAL RAINFALL TO EXCEED 8 INCHES IN THE TRI-STATE REGION THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD, WITH THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF BEING ON THE HIGH
END WITH UPWARDS OF 10 INCHES. THE GEFS CURRENTLY HAS LOWER, BUT
STILL SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WE WILL NEED TO FOLLOW
THIS CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS TO FOCUS IN ON THE
DETAILS... WHICH COULD LEAD TO THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING WITH
EACH WAVE ALONG THE FRONT, ALONG WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF RIVER
FLOODING AS RUNOFF INCREASES THROUGH THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH THE
WARMEST TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTH NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE STALLED
FRONT.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SHRA SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 16Z
BEFORE ACTIVITY BECOMES MORE ISO ONCE AGAIN THEREAFTER. THE
INCREASED COVERAGE OF SHRA WITHIN THE FIRST HOUR OR TWO OF THE TAF
PERIOD WILL LEAD TO A MOISTENING OF THE LL PROFILE, ALLOWING FOR
CIGS TO LOWER FROM VFR TO MVFR, AND POTENTIALLY EVEN IFR VERY
BRIEFLY. WIDESPREAD CIGS AROUND 1500FT DURING THE MORNING WILL SLOWLY
LIFT TO ABOUT 2500FT AFTER 18Z BEFORE BRIEFLY RETURNING TO VFR
TOWARD 04Z BEFORE GOING BACK MVFR BETWEEN 09Z-12Z.
ISO SHRA/TSRA IS EXPECTED TO LINGER/REDEVELOP ACROSS SRN PARTS OF
THE AREA THROUGH MID AFTERNOON, PARTICULARLY NEAR KCVG/KLUK/KILN.
HOWEVER, AN ABRUPT INCREASE IN COVERAGE IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 22Z-04Z
AS A LARGE COMPLEX, OR SEVERAL COMPLEXES, OF TSRA WORK(S) E THROUGH
THE REGION. TRIED TO TIME OUT THE IMPACTS OF VSBY REDUCTIONS AT EACH
TERMINAL WITH A TEMPO GROUP OF TSRA. THERE WILL ALSO BE ABRUPT
CHANGES IN WIND SPEED/DIRECTION COINCIDENT WITH THE TSRA, BUT HAVE
KEPT OUT OF OFFICIAL FCST FOR NOW UNTIL TIMING/IMPACTS BECOME A BIT
CLEARER.
THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT COVERAGE OF ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE
FOR THE LOCAL TERMINALS BETWEEN 03Z-05Z, WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THEREAFTER. HOWEVER A FEW ISO SHRA WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
THROUGH DAYBREAK AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES THROUGH THE AREA.
A WIND SHIFT TO OUT OF THE NW WILL BEGIN AROUND 10Z FOR WRN SITES AND
CONTINUE EVOLVING TO THE E FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LOCAL TERMINALS
THROUGH 12Z.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...KC
NEAR TERM...KC
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...KC
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