231
FXUS61 KILN 301526
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1126 AM EDT SUN MAR 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE A
BRIEF COOL DOWN DEVELOPS EARLY IN THE WORKWEEK. SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN RETURNS ONCE
AGAIN BY MIDWEEK AND BEYOND, WITH A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORKWEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
FOCUS IS ON SEVERE WEATHER THREAT LATE THIS AFTERNOON THRU THIS
EVENING. INITIAL WEAK SHORTWAVE TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHEAST THRU
THE AREA WITH ONGOING SHOWERS DECREASING FROM WEST TO EAST AS IT
EXITS THE REGION LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TO EJECT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY AND
INTO THE GREAT LAKES TODAY. AT THE SURFACE, LOW PRESSURE OVER
EASTERN IA TO TRACK NORTHEAST THRU THE GREAT LAKES AND DEEPEN TODAY
AND INTO SOUTHERN CANADA OVERNIGHT. A SOUTHWARD TRAILING COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY.
WIND FIELDS INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS
INCREASING INTO THE LOWER AND EVEN MIDDLE 60S IN THE WARM SECTOR.
THIS WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CORRIDOR OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED TO OUR WEST DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON HOURS, AND
THEN SPREAD QUICKLY EAST. FAVORABLE BULK SHEAR WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED
CONVECTION. INITIALLY, DISCRETE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND
THEN QUICKLY TRANSITION INTO A LINEAR OR MULTI-STORM CLUSTER MODE.
THERE IS SOME QUESTION TO HOW FAR EAST DISCRETE STORMS MAKE IT PRIOR
TO BECOMING MORE LINEAR. THE DISCRETE STORMS(SUPERCELLS) WILL HAVE A
LARGE HAIL AND A STRONG TORNADO THREAT - WITH THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL
FROM THE TRI-STATE REGION AND SOUTHWEST. THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING
WINDS AND POSSIBLE EMBEDDED TORNADOES WILL PERSIST WITH THE LINEAR
FEATURE DUE TO THE FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL SHEAR THRU THE MID TO LATE
EVENING HOURS. EVENTUALLY THE CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS
ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND INSTABILITY DECREASES OVERNIGHT.
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FRAME FOR SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS TO BEGIN AS
EARLY AS 6 PM IN EASTERN INDIANA/WESTERN OHIO AND NORTH CENTRAL KY
WITH CHANCES INCREASING THRU 8 PM AND CONTINUING THROUGH ABOUT 11 PM
AS THE LINE MOVES ACROSS ILN/S FORECAST AREA INTO CENTRAL OHIO AND
NORTHEAST KY.
HIGHS TODAY WILL REACH INTO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA
WITH MID 70S POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHEAST BEFORE CAA EVOLVES AREA-WIDE
TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY. LOWS TONIGHT RANGE FROM THE MID 40S NORTHWEST
TO THE UPPER 50S SOUTHEAST.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY/
QUIETER CONDITIONS EVOLVE AREA-WIDE ON MONDAY AS THE FRONT CLEARS THE
AREA IN THE SEVERAL HOURS AROUND SUNRISE MONDAY. A SHRA MAY LINGER IN
FAR SE PARTS OF THE ILN FA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON, INCLUDING SOME
POST- FRONTAL ACTIVITY. HOWEVER, DRIER CONDITIONS EVOLVE AREA-WIDE BY
LATE IN THE DAY, WITH TEMPS NEARLY-STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING THROUGH
THE 50S AND INTO THE 40S BY LATE DAY NEAR/W OF I-71. OVC SKIES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY WITH A STIFF NW WIND ON THE ORDER OF
15-20KTS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ON TUESDAY, OFFERING FAIR AND
COOL WEATHER.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO SHOW DEVELOPMENT OF AN INTENSE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTING OUR REGION STARTING WEDNESDAY. AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER
LATE IN THE DAY, BUT HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH PERSISTENT MID-LEVEL
RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL IMPEDE THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESS
OF THE FRONT. THERE APPEARS TO BE AN INCREASING SIGNAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE STORM RISK LATE WEDNESDAY DUE TO STRONG WIND
FIELDS AND INCREASING INSTABILITY. IN ADDITION, AS THE FRONT SLOWS,
TRAINING OF CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW IS LIKELY TO
CAUSE AN EXTENDED FLOODING THREAT. THE THREAT WILL BEGIN WEDNESDAY
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT AND MAY LAST INTO THE WEEKEND AS ADDITIONAL
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY.
CRITICAL AREAS OF UNCERTAINTY STEM FROM THE EXACT POSITION OF THE
STALLED BOUNDARY ALONG WITH THE STRENGTH OF ADDITIONAL WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY THURSDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN FRIDAY
NIGHT. ENSEMBLE DATA FROM THE EPS SHOWS A 20-30% PROBABILITY FOR
TOTAL RAINFALL TO EXCEED 8 INCHES IN THE TRI-STATE REGION THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD, WITH THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF BEING ON THE HIGH
END WITH UPWARDS OF 10 INCHES. THE GEFS CURRENTLY HAS LOWER, BUT
STILL SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WE WILL NEED TO FOLLOW
THIS CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS TO FOCUS IN ON THE
DETAILS... WHICH COULD LEAD TO THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING WITH
EACH WAVE ALONG THE FRONT, ALONG WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF RIVER
FLOODING AS RUNOFF INCREASES THROUGH THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH THE
WARMEST TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTH NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE STALLED
FRONT.
AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SHRA SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 16Z
BEFORE ACTIVITY BECOMES MORE ISO ONCE AGAIN THEREAFTER. THE
INCREASED COVERAGE OF SHRA WITHIN THE FIRST HOUR OR TWO OF THE TAF
PERIOD WILL LEAD TO A MOISTENING OF THE LL PROFILE, ALLOWING FOR
CIGS TO LOWER FROM VFR TO MVFR, AND POTENTIALLY EVEN IFR VERY
BRIEFLY. WIDESPREAD CIGS AROUND 1500FT DURING THE MORNING WILL SLOWLY
LIFT TO ABOUT 2500FT AFTER 18Z BEFORE BRIEFLY RETURNING TO VFR
TOWARD 04Z BEFORE GOING BACK MVFR BETWEEN 09Z-12Z.
ISO SHRA/TSRA IS EXPECTED TO LINGER/REDEVELOP ACROSS SRN PARTS OF
THE AREA THROUGH MID AFTERNOON, PARTICULARLY NEAR KCVG/KLUK/KILN.
HOWEVER, AN ABRUPT INCREASE IN COVERAGE IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 22Z-04Z
AS A LARGE COMPLEX, OR SEVERAL COMPLEXES, OF TSRA WORK(S) E THROUGH
THE REGION. TRIED TO TIME OUT THE IMPACTS OF VSBY REDUCTIONS AT EACH
TERMINAL WITH A TEMPO GROUP OF TSRA. THERE WILL ALSO BE ABRUPT
CHANGES IN WIND SPEED/DIRECTION COINCIDENT WITH THE TSRA, BUT HAVE
KEPT OUT OF OFFICIAL FCST FOR NOW UNTIL TIMING/IMPACTS BECOME A BIT
CLEARER.
THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT COVERAGE OF ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE
FOR THE LOCAL TERMINALS BETWEEN 03Z-05Z, WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THEREAFTER. HOWEVER A FEW ISO SHRA WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
THROUGH DAYBREAK AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES THROUGH THE AREA.
A WIND SHIFT TO OUT OF THE NW WILL BEGIN AROUND 10Z FOR WRN SITES AND
CONTINUE EVOLVING TO THE E FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LOCAL TERMINALS
THROUGH 12Z.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...KC
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...KC
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