707
FXUS61 KILN 302352
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
752 PM EDT SUN MAR 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL BE STRONG TO
SEVERE. DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A MORE
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN RETURNS ONCE AGAIN BY MIDWEEK AND BEYOND, WITH
A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORKWEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE MID MS VALLEY TO EJECT NORTHEAST ACRS
THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AS A ROBUST 70-80KT JET ROTATES AROUND ITS
EAST SIDE. AT THE SURFACE, LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN IL TO DEEPEN
AS IT TRACKS NORTHEAST THRU THE GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING AND INTO
SOUTHERN CANADA OVERNIGHT. A SOUTHWARD TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY.
WIND FIELDS HAVE RESPONDED AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH SURFACE DEW
POINTS INCREASING INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S IN THE WARM SECTOR -
FEEDING STORMS DEVELOPMENT IN A CORRIDOR OF MODERATE INSTABILITY
ACROSS IL AND IN. WOFS AND HRRR TAKE MAIN PUSH OF INITIAL LINE OF
ORGANIZED STORMS ACROSS NORTHERN IN TO OUR NORTHWEST. ADDITIONAL STORMS
STARTING TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL IN WHERE VISIBLE SATL IMAGERY
SHOWS MORE SUNSHINE AND AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTBY. EXPECT CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT TO CONTINUE SOUTH INTO THIS FAVORABLE REGION OF MODERATE
INSTBY.
THESE DISCRETE STORMS TO ORGANIZE IN A FAVORABLE BULK SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT AS THEY SPREAD QUICKLY EAST. THESE DISCRETE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO QUICKLY TRANSITION INTO A LINEAR OR MULTI-STORM CLUSTER
MODE.
IF DISCRETE STORMS MAKE IT INTO OUR FAR WEST/SOUTHWEST - THESE
SUPERCELLS WILL HAVE A LARGE HAIL AND A STRONG TORNADO THREAT -
WITH THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FROM THE TRI-STATE REGION AND SOUTHWEST.
THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLE EMBEDDED TORNADOES WILL
PERSIST WITH THE LINEAR FEATURE DUE TO THE FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL SHEAR
THRU THE MID TO LATE EVENING HOURS. EVENTUALLY THE CONVECTION WILL
WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND INSTABILITY
DECREASES OVERNIGHT.
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FRAME FOR SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS TO BEGIN AS
EARLY AS 6 PM IN EASTERN INDIANA/WESTERN OHIO AND NORTH CENTRAL KY
WITH CHANCES INCREASING THRU 8 PM AND CONTINUING THROUGH ABOUT 11 PM
AS THE LINE MOVES ACROSS ILN/S FORECAST AREA INTO CENTRAL OHIO AND
NORTHEAST KY.
IN THE POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT LOWS TONIGHT RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S
NORTHWEST TO THE MID 50S SOUTHEAST.
SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
QUIETER CONDITIONS DEVELOP ON MONDAY AS THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA IN
THE FAR SOUTHEAST SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. LINGERING SHOWERS PERSIST
IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. DRIER CONDITIONS EVOLVE
AREA WIDE BY LATE IN THE DAY BUT CLOUDS LOOK TO LINGER. TEMPERATURES
NEARLY-STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING THROUGH THE 50S AND INTO THE 40S BY
LATE DAY. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH GUST UP TO 25 MPH.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH SKIES BECOMING
PARTLY CLOUDY MONDAY NIGHT. CHILLY TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS FROM NEAR
30 NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 30S SOUTHEAST.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
BUILDING HEIGHTS ON TUESDAY WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT LOWS OVERNIGHT
ABOUT 10-15 FROM THAT MORNING'S MIN TEMP. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM 50 IN THE NORTH TO NEAR 60 JUST SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY,
SETTING OFF A FEW SHOWERS AS IT CROSSES. BEHIND IT, SOUTHEAST WIND
WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE, ADVECTING WARMER AIR INTO THE
REGION. BOTH WINDS AND HIGH TEMPS ON THIS DAY ARE UNDERPLAYED IN
GUIDANCE. HAVE INCREASED BOTH BUT THIS WAS MORE NOTICEABLE ON THE
WIND FIELD.
DEEP ZONAL SW FLOW WILL PULL IN SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE TO THE REGION
DURING THE DAY. IN THE EVENING, AN UPPER LEVEL LOBE OF VORTICITY
WILL DEVELOP WELL AHEAD OF THE PARENT LOW THAT SHOULD TRACK THROUGH
NORTHERN MN. HEAVY RAINFALL INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS LOOKS TO TAKE AIM ON THE REGION DURING THE NIGHTTIME
HOURS OF WEDNESDAY.
THE SYSTEM WILL TAIL OFF OVER THE TRI-STATE AND THEN ORIENT MORE WSW-
ENE ON THURSDAY. THE DEEP ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES WITH A MORE WESTERLY
COMPONENT AND A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN THE UPPER MIDWEST. THERE
SHOULD BE AN AREA OF FRONTOGENESIS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY, WITH A
STATIONARY FRONT LAYING OUT SW-NE IN THE EVENING. THE CONTINUED
PLUME OF MOISTURE CO-LOCATED WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND A
DEVELOPING FRONT WILL BRING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN THROUGH
FRIDAY.
THE STATIONARY FRONT IS PROGGED TO LINGER SW-NE OVER THE REGION, AND
ANOTHER SHOT OF RAIN DEVELOPING TO THE NORTH OF IT OVER THE CWA
COULD BEGIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND LINGER THROUGH SATURDAY.
TIMING OF WAVES ALONG THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL NOT BECOME
APPARENT FOR A FEW DAYS YET, BUT THE BOUNDARY AND ATMOSPHERIC
PROFILE ABOVE IT ARE BEING FORECAST QUITE UNIFORMLY BY MODELS FOR
THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
THE MAIN TAKEAWAY IS THE INCREASED THREAT FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
CONSISTENT MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THAT WILL BE
ENHANCED AT TIMES WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NE ALONG THE
STATIONARY FRONT. THIS PATTERN WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A SIGNIFICANT
FLOODING THREAT TO THE REGION.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS HAS DEVELOPED IN THE MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS IN AND WESTERN OHIO AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
THIS LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO PUSH EAST ACROSS THE TAF SITES THRU
ABOUT 03Z ACROSS THE CENTRAL OHIO TAF SITES. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE
STRONG TO SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT. HAVE
GUSTS TO 40KTS AT KCVG/KLUK BUT WINDS COULD BE LOCALLY HIGHER.
HAVE TIMED OUT THE IMPACTS OF LOWER VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AT EACH
TERMINAL WITH A TEMPO GROUP OF THUNDERSTORMS.
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE FROM THE WEST
BETWEEN AFTER 03Z, WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THEREAFTER.
HOWEVER A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH DAYBREAK
AS THE COLD FRONT PROGRESSES THROUGH THE AREA.
A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WILL OCCUR AROUND 10Z FOR WESTERN TAF SITES
AND CONTINUE TO THE EAST THROUGH 12Z. MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AFTN IN THE POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS MAY PERSIST INTO MONDAY EVENING. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...AR
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