972
FXUS61 KILN 311947
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
347 PM EDT MON MAR 31 2025
SYNOPSIS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT
INTO TUESDAY, PROVIDING DRY AND COOL WEATHER. ANOTHER STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING THUNDERSTORMS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
STORMS AND HEAVY RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ADDITIONAL WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE FOR STORMY WEATHER THROUGH LATE
WEEK WITH THE FLOOD THREAT CONTINUING.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/
POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT WITH MID LEVEL TROF LAGGING TO THE WEST. THE
THREAT FOR A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS NORTHEAST KY AND SOUTH
CENTRAL OHIO EARLY.
LATEST VISIBLE SATL IMAGERY SHOWS EXTENSIVE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS. CLOUD BEARING WINDS LOOK TO
BE FAVORABLE FOR HOLDING ONTO CLOUDS LONGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
HAVE CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
DEVELOPING. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10 MPH
AND BECOME MORE NORTHERLY. CHILLY TEMPERATURES DROP TO LOWS FROM THE
UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO THE MID/UPPER 30S SOUTHEAST.
SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
A WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE GREAT TUESDAY. SOME HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS SPILL IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. AFTER A CHILLY
START TO THE DAY - TEMPERATURES RISE TO HIGHS FROM NEAR 50 NORTH TO
NEAR 60 SOUTH.
BROAD MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA. HIGH AND SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS
INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. MILDER TEMPERATURES DROP OFF
IN THE EVENING AND THEN LEVEL OUT AND PERHAPS EVEN RISE SLIGHTLY
LATE. LOWS TO RANGE FROM NEAR 40 NORTH TO THE MID/UPPER 40S SOUTH.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A WARM FRONT WILL PULL IN ABUNDANT MOISTURE ON STRONG SOUTHERLY
WINDS WEDNESDAY. DEEP ZONAL SW FLOW WILL ORIENT ALONG A SW-NE LINE
THAT ATTM ONLY APPEARS TO BE A CONVERGENT AREA AT THE SURFACE.
HIGHER UP, H5 S/W ENERGY IS PRONOUNCED ALONG AN EASTWARD MOVING LINE
THAT RUNS CONGRUENT WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. BY EVENING, A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY JUST NW OF
THE CWA. PRESSURE GRADIENT RIGHT ABOVE THE CONVERGENCE AT THE
SURFACED TIGHTENS SIGNIFICANTLY. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THIS
LINE WILL MOVE SLOWLY SE OVERNIGHT, CROSSING FROM NW TO SE PORTIONS
OF THE CWA. THE UPPER DYNAMICS RACE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
JUST BEFORE/BY 12Z THURS, WHICH WILL LIKELY HAIL THE END TO STORMS
FROM THIS WAVE OF ENERGY. STORMS OVERNIGHT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH AN
EXTREMELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT THAT IS SET UP FROM THE STRONG S
WINDS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY, AND LIKELY BE SEVERE FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA.
EARLY THURSDAY, THIS BOUNDARY SHEARS OUT FROM WSW-ENE OVER KY AS THE
PRIOR NIGHT'S RAINFALL COMES TO AN END OVER THE FAR SRN/SE CWA.
DURING THE DAY, THE SHEARED BOUNDARY BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED AND
LIFTS NORTH. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WHAT WILL NOW BE A
STATIONARY FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS FROM THE SOUTHERN CWA TO
EVENTUALLY BISECT OUR AREA FROM WSW-ENE, ROUGHLY WEST OF CINCY TO
EAST OF COLUMBUS. THIS FRONTAL MOVEMENT WILL BE PREDICATED BY THE
PLACEMENT OF MID LEVEL S/W ENERGY AT THIS TIME.
IN THE EVENING, THE DEEP SW FLOW WILL SEE THE MID LEVEL ENERGY
ORIENT PARALLEL WITH IT. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR A LINE OF MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT SHOULD BEGIN IN THE
N/NW CWA IN THE EVENING AND DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN
CWA IN THE MORNING BUT NOT CEASE. ONCE AGAIN, THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF
THE MID LEVEL S/W ENERGY SHEARS OUT DURING THE DAY, ONLY TO RE-
ORIENT ITSELF ABOVE THE -STILL- STATIONARY FRONT. THIS BRINGS
ANOTHER ROUND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
THAT ONCE AGAIN HAS THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ORIENT WITH THE DEEP
ZONAL SW FLOW ALOFT.
REPEAT THIS PROCESS IN A VERY SIMILAR WAY DURING THE DAY AND MORE
IMPORTANTLY, OVERNIGHT SATURDAY. YES, REPEAT IT FOR A THIRD NIGHT
RUNNING.
WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE, 4 TO AS MUCH AS 7 INCHES OF RAINFALL WILL
HAVE FALLEN FOR THE BULK OF THE CWA BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY, WITH THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE FOUND SOUTH AND WEST OF METRO
CINCINNATI. UNFORTUNATELY, THIS IS A HIGHER-END AVERAGE WHICH WILL
CERTAINLY NOT ACCURATELY DEPICT THE MAXIMUM AMOUNT OF RAIN ANY ONE
PARTICULAR LOCATION RECEIVES. SOME LUCKY FEW OF US MAY FIND
THEMSELVES LOCATED DIRECTLY UNDERNEATH THE LINE OF NIGHTTIME
MODERATE RAINFALL FOR THREE NIGHTS RUNNING AND MAKE THE AVERAGED
RAINFALL LOOK LIKE A SPRING SHOWER IN COMPARISON.
ON SUNDAY, THE STATIONARY FRONT FINALLY GETS SHOVED SOUTHEAST AS
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DIGS IN FROM THE NORTH.
TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM WILL RISE INTO THE MID-
UPPER 70S, NEAR 80 IN THE SOUTHEAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE EQUALLY
AS WARM AND RANGE FROM 60-65. THE BOUNDARY THEN TAKES OVER AND
REMOVES THE WARMEST AND COOLEST AIR TO EVENTUALLY BLEND INTO A
RELATIVELY UNIFORM TEMPERATURE RANGE. THURSDAY HIGHS WILL BE NEAR 70
FOR MOST OF THE CWA, THEN RUN FROM THE UPPER 50S IN THE NORTH TO
UPPER 60S IN THE SOUTH ON FRI AND SAT. SUNDAY WILL DROP INTO THE
50S, AND MONDAY WILL HAVE THE COLDEST AIR BEHIND THE SYSTEM WITH
HIGHS IN THE 40S.
AFTER WEDNESDAY NIGHT, OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 40S TO MID-
UPPER 50S WILL OCCUR THURS AND FRI NIGHT. SAT NIGHT WILL BEGIN TO
SHOW THE COOL-DOWN WITH LOWS IN THE 40S. SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING
WILL BRING A POTENTIAL FOR A FROST/FREEZE AS LOWS DIP FROM 30-35.
BTW, A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE CWA FROM WED NIGHT
THROUGH SUN MORNING.
AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT WITH MID LEVEL TROF LAGGING TO THE WEST.
LATEST VISIBLE SATL IMAGERY SHOWS EXTENSIVE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS. CLOUD BEARING WINDS LOOK TO
BE FAVORABLE FOR HOLDING ONTO CLOUDS LONGER INTO TONIGHT. EXPECT MVFR
CEILINGS THRU THE AFTN INTO TONIGHT WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AFTER
06Z. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
NORTHWEST WINDS AT 10-12 KTS GUSTING UP TO 20 KTS BECOME NORTHERLY AT
LESS THAN 10 KTS THIS EVENING AND NORTHEAST TO EAST AT LESS THAN 10
KTS TUESDAY.
OUTLOOK...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...FLOOD WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...FLOOD WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
KYZ089>100.
IN...FLOOD WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080.
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...AR
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