426
FXUS61 KILN 010231
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1031 PM EDT MON MAR 31 2025
SYNOPSIS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT
INTO TUESDAY, PROVIDING DRY AND COOL WEATHER. ANOTHER STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING THUNDERSTORMS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS AND HEAVY RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ADDITIONAL WAVES OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE FOR STORMY WEATHER THROUGH
LATE WEEK WITH THE FLOOD THREAT CONTINUING.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION TONIGHT.
STRATOCUMULUS DECK WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE AND CLEAR. HAVE CLOUDS
GRADUALLY SCATTERING OUT AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. CHILLY TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED
WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO THE MID/UPPER 30S
SOUTHEAST.
SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
A WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE GREAT TUESDAY. SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
SPILL IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. AFTER A CHILLY START TO
THE DAY - TEMPERATURES RISE TO HIGHS FROM NEAR 50 NORTH TO NEAR 60
SOUTH.
BROAD MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA. HIGH AND SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS
INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. MILDER TEMPERATURES DROP OFF
IN THE EVENING AND THEN LEVEL OUT AND PERHAPS EVEN RISE SLIGHTLY
LATE. LOWS TO RANGE FROM NEAR 40 NORTH TO THE MID/UPPER 40S SOUTH.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A WARM FRONT WILL PULL IN ABUNDANT MOISTURE ON STRONG SOUTHERLY
WINDS WEDNESDAY. DEEP ZONAL SW FLOW WILL ORIENT ALONG A SW-NE LINE
THAT ATTM ONLY APPEARS TO BE A CONVERGENT AREA AT THE SURFACE. HIGHER
UP, H5 S/W ENERGY IS PRONOUNCED ALONG AN EASTWARD MOVING LINE THAT
RUNS CONGRUENT WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. BY EVENING, A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY JUST NW OF
THE CWA. PRESSURE GRADIENT RIGHT ABOVE THE CONVERGENCE AT THE
SURFACED TIGHTENS SIGNIFICANTLY. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THIS
LINE WILL MOVE SLOWLY SE OVERNIGHT, CROSSING FROM NW TO SE PORTIONS
OF THE CWA. THE UPPER DYNAMICS RACE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
JUST BEFORE/BY 12Z THURS, WHICH WILL LIKELY HAIL THE END TO STORMS
FROM THIS WAVE OF ENERGY. STORMS OVERNIGHT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH AN
EXTREMELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT THAT IS SET UP FROM THE STRONG S
WINDS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY, AND LIKELY BE SEVERE FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA.
EARLY THURSDAY, THIS BOUNDARY SHEARS OUT FROM WSW-ENE OVER KY AS THE
PRIOR NIGHT'S RAINFALL COMES TO AN END OVER THE FAR SRN/SE CWA.
DURING THE DAY, THE SHEARED BOUNDARY BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED AND
LIFTS NORTH. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WHAT WILL NOW BE A
STATIONARY FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS FROM THE SOUTHERN CWA TO
EVENTUALLY BISECT OUR AREA FROM WSW-ENE, ROUGHLY WEST OF CINCY TO
EAST OF COLUMBUS. THIS FRONTAL MOVEMENT WILL BE PREDICATED BY THE
PLACEMENT OF MID LEVEL S/W ENERGY AT THIS TIME.
IN THE EVENING, THE DEEP SW FLOW WILL SEE THE MID LEVEL ENERGY
ORIENT PARALLEL WITH IT. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR A LINE OF MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT SHOULD BEGIN IN THE
N/NW CWA IN THE EVENING AND DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN
CWA IN THE MORNING BUT NOT CEASE. ONCE AGAIN, THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF
THE MID LEVEL S/W ENERGY SHEARS OUT DURING THE DAY, ONLY TO RE-
ORIENT ITSELF ABOVE THE -STILL- STATIONARY FRONT. THIS BRINGS ANOTHER
ROUND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT ONCE
AGAIN HAS THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ORIENT WITH THE DEEP ZONAL SW FLOW
ALOFT.
REPEAT THIS PROCESS IN A VERY SIMILAR WAY DURING THE DAY AND MORE
IMPORTANTLY, OVERNIGHT SATURDAY. YES, REPEAT IT FOR A THIRD NIGHT
RUNNING.
WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE, 4 TO AS MUCH AS 7 INCHES OF RAINFALL WILL
HAVE FALLEN FOR THE BULK OF THE CWA BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY, WITH THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE FOUND SOUTH AND WEST OF METRO
CINCINNATI. UNFORTUNATELY, THIS IS A HIGHER-END AVERAGE WHICH WILL
CERTAINLY NOT ACCURATELY DEPICT THE MAXIMUM AMOUNT OF RAIN ANY ONE
PARTICULAR LOCATION RECEIVES. SOME LUCKY FEW OF US MAY FIND
THEMSELVES LOCATED DIRECTLY UNDERNEATH THE LINE OF NIGHTTIME MODERATE
RAINFALL FOR THREE NIGHTS RUNNING AND MAKE THE AVERAGED RAINFALL
LOOK LIKE A SPRING SHOWER IN COMPARISON.
ON SUNDAY, THE STATIONARY FRONT FINALLY GETS SHOVED SOUTHEAST AS
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DIGS IN FROM THE NORTH.
TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM WILL RISE INTO THE MID-
UPPER 70S, NEAR 80 IN THE SOUTHEAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE EQUALLY
AS WARM AND RANGE FROM 60-65. THE BOUNDARY THEN TAKES OVER AND
REMOVES THE WARMEST AND COOLEST AIR TO EVENTUALLY BLEND INTO A
RELATIVELY UNIFORM TEMPERATURE RANGE. THURSDAY HIGHS WILL BE NEAR 70
FOR MOST OF THE CWA, THEN RUN FROM THE UPPER 50S IN THE NORTH TO
UPPER 60S IN THE SOUTH ON FRI AND SAT. SUNDAY WILL DROP INTO THE 50S,
AND MONDAY WILL HAVE THE COLDEST AIR BEHIND THE SYSTEM WITH HIGHS IN
THE 40S.
AFTER WEDNESDAY NIGHT, OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 40S TO MID-
UPPER 50S WILL OCCUR THURS AND FRI NIGHT. SAT NIGHT WILL BEGIN TO
SHOW THE COOL-DOWN WITH LOWS IN THE 40S. SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING
WILL BRING A POTENTIAL FOR A FROST/FREEZE AS LOWS DIP FROM 30-35.
BTW, A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE CWA FROM WED NIGHT
THROUGH SUN MORNING.
AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION TONIGHT.
HOWEVER, STRATOCUMULUS DECK WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE AND CLEAR. CEILINGS
SHOULD REMAIN IN THE MVFR CATEGORICAL, RANGING FROM 1500 FEET TO
3000 FEET. NORTHWEST WINDS BETWEEN 8 AND 12 KNOTS WILL LESSEN SOME
OVERNIGHT AS THE DIRECTION VEERS TO A MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION.
ON TUESDAY, THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION.
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE AND SHOULD MOSTLY
DISSIPATE BY MID AFTERNOON, LEAVING ONLY SOME SCATTERED CIRRUS. WINDS
WILL VEER TO A MORE EASTERLY DIRECTION, RANGING BETWEEN 5 AND 10
KNOTS.
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT, MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE EAST/SOUTHEAST AND MAY INCREASE SOME
TOWARD MORNING.
OUTLOOK...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
TIMES DURING THIS PERIOD.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...FLOOD WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...FLOOD WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
KYZ089>100.
IN...FLOOD WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080.
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN/AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...HICKMAN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page