327
FXUS61 KILN 200558
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
158 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2025
SYNOPSIS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED AT TIMES TODAY BEFORE A
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. A SMALL
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL EVOLVE SUNDAY BEFORE A BETTER
CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY UNFOLDS EARLY MONDAY AS THE FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS
WILL EVOLVE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN THE POST FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
CONVECTION HAS PUSHED EAST OF OUR CWA THIS EVENING, WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR FA, USHERING IN A COOLER AIR MASS.
SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE NIGHT, SO
THERE WON'T BE EFFICIENT RADIATIVE COOLING. HOWEVER, WITH THE CAA,
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL STILL BE ABLE TO DIP INTO THE UPPER 40S NORTH OF
I-70, TRENDING HIGHER TOWARDS THE UPPER 50S NEAR/SOUTH OF THE OH
RIVER.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/
THE FRONT WILL BE STRETCHED NEARLY W-TO-E ACROSS FAR SRN PARTS OF THE
LOCAL AREA SUNDAY MORNING, BUT THE EJECTION OF THE PRIMARY SFC LOW TO
THE N ACROSS THE MID MS RVR VLY INTO THE AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW FOR THE
FRONT TO PIVOT BACK TO THE N THROUGH THE AREA, ALLOWING FOR /VERY/
WARM AIR TO ONCE AGAIN OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE S. A FEW ISO
SHRA/TSRA MAY BE POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT SWINGS BACK TO THE N,
PARTICULARLY NEAR/W OF I-75 WHERE MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL BE
BETTER THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
THERE WILL BE QUITE A TEMP GRADIENT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA AS THE
FRONT DRIFTS TO THE N THROUGH THE HEART OF THE DAYTIME, WITH TEMPS
RANGING AS MUCH AS 20 DEGREES FROM S-TO-N BY MIDDAY, WITH TEMPS IN
THE LOWER 80S TO LOWER 60S, RESPECTIVELY BY MID AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS
SHOULD TREND MAINLY DRY BY LATE AFTERNOON, BUT SUPPOSE A ROGUE
SHRA/TSRA CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT ALONG/NEAR THE ADVANCING LL
BOUNDARY.
THE AREA WILL BECOME MORE FIRMLY WARM-SECTORED BY SUNDAY
EVENING/NIGHT AS THE SFC LOW MOVES NE FROM MO THROUGH IA INTO
SOUTHERN WI BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT, AND THE ASSOCIATED SHRA/TSRA, TO APPROACH THE ILN FA
AROUND/AFTER DAYBREAK MONDAY.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
ON MONDAY, THE LOW CONTINUES TO PROGRESS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WORKS THROUGH THE OH VLY
DURING THE DAY. SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH ILN FA DURING THE MORNING INTO
AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY, SEVERE PROBABILITIES REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE
SINCE INSTBY SHOULD REMAIN A BIT ON THE MEAGER SIDE, EVEN IN THE
WARM SECTOR. ADDITIONALLY, SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO
BE OVERLY HIGH AS THE FORCING BECOMES INCREASINGLY WEAKER WITH
EASTWARD EXTENT INTO THE OH VLY BY MID/LATE MONDAY. HOWEVER, AS WITH
ANY FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS TIME OF THE YEAR, THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY, EVEN IF EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY
LOW/MINOR.
SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR RETURNS BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES RETURN BY THE END OF
THE WEEK WHEN ANOTHER STALLED BOUNDARY DRIFTS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
OVERALL, TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BEFORE
TRENDING BACK WELL ABOVE NORMAL MIDWEEK THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORKWEEK. THE TIMING AND COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION LATE WEEK REMAINS
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME, BUT RAIN/STORM CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN
FOR THE END OF THE WORKWEEK.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AN AREA OF MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR CIGS ARE PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THESE APPEAR TO BE
SOMEWHAT TRANSITORY SO WILL ONLY HANG ON TO MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE
FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD AND THEN ALLOW FOR AN IMPROVEMENT
BACK INTO VFR.
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND INTO THIS EVENING. HI-RES MODELS ARE SUGGESTING SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT SO WILL
INCLUDE A FEW HOUR PROB30 GROUP FOR -SHRA/-TSRA THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE, A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATER TONIGHT.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT, A WEAKENING LINE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO OUR AREA FROM THE WEST TOWARD DAYBREAK.
THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET, SO SOME
LLWS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...KC
NEAR TERM...CLARK
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...JGL
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