503
FXUS61 KILN 201723
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
123 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
TONIGHT BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY.
THIS WILL LEAD TO OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS,
PRIMARILY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
ONGOING FCST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON REMAINS ON TRACK AS THE SFC
BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS PARTS OF N KY THIS MORNING. THE FRONT
WILL SLOWLY PIVOT BACK TO THE N THROUGH THE NEAR TERM PERIOD,
ALLOWING FOR THE WARMER AIRMASS TO ADVANCE NORTHWARD ONCE AGAIN BY
LATE IN THE DAY, PARTICULARLY FOR LOCALES NEAR/S OF THE I-70
CORRIDOR.
THIS INFLUX OF WARMER AIR WILL COINCIDE WITH AN ABRUPT INCREASE IN
LL MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AS WELL, WITH DEWPOINTS REACHING INTO THE
LOWER 60S NEAR/S OF I-70 AND INTO THE TRI-STATE AREA BY THIS
EVENING. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A NARROW CORRIDOR OF SCT TO
NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP NEAR THE TRI-STATE AROUND 00Z BEFORE
EXPANDING IN COVERAGE AND MOVING QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
MIDNIGHT INTO THE MIAMI VALLEY. THERE IS A FAIRLY STRONG/CONSISTENT
SIGNAL AMONGST THE HI-RES GUIDANCE DEPICTING THIS DEVELOPMENT THIS
EVENING, SO POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED FOR AREAS NEAR/W OF I-75 BETWEEN
00Z-06Z TO ACCOUNT FOR THE EXPECTATION FOR FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE OF ACTIVITY THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED, SUPPOSE SOME SMALL HAIL CANNOT BE
RULED OUT IN THE STRONGER CORES.
IN THE DEVELOPING WAA, WE WILL END UP WITH A DECENT TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT ACROSS OUR AREA, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER
60S IN THE FAR NORTH TO LOWER 80S IN OUR FAR SOUTH.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/
THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. AS IT DOES, THE WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT NORTH THROUGH OUR AREA TONIGHT. ALONG THE FRONT, ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE, LIKELY
LIFTING NORTH ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING.
A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATER TONIGHT AND
THEN PUSH EAST ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY. A
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL SHIFT EAST INTO
OUR AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AN
AXIS OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE INTO OUR WEST
LATE TONIGHT AND THEN MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REST OF OUR AREA THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. PCPN SHOULD THEN TAPER OFF FROM THE WEST ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
IN THE WAA PATTERN, TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD TONIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. IN DEVELOPING CAA BEHIND THE FRONT,
HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 70 IN OUR FAR WEST TO THE MID
70S IN OUR FAR EAST.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
A QUIET AND DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK BEGINS
ON MONDAY NIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY WHEN WESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS BEFORE
TEMPERATURES MODERATE BACK ABOVE AVERAGE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WHEN SOUTHERLY FLOW REDEVELOPS. A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.
SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES GET REINTRODUCED AROUND THE THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT TIMEFRAME AND PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY WHEN THE NEXT
PUSH OF MOISTURE IS LIKELY TO ENTER THE OHIO VALLEY AHEAD OF THE
NEXT COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES AND RAIN CHANCES DROP ONCE AGAIN BY
NEXT WEEKEND AFTER FROPA.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
PATCHES OF CIRRUS WILL STREAM THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE DAYTIME, WITH A FEW/SCT VFR CU SPROUTING ABOUT LATE IN THE DAY
TOWARD KCVG/KLUK NEAR THE NORTHWARD-ADVANCING WARM FRONT. DRY
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL UNTIL ABOUT 01Z OR SO WHEN ISO/SCT
SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE TRI-STATE AND NEAR
KCVG/KLUK. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE TO THE NNE
THROUGH 06Z, POTENTIALLY IMPACTING VERY BRIEFLY KDAY AND KILN AS
WELL BEFORE DRIER CONDITIONS BRIEFLY RETURN FOR THE TERMINALS BETWEEN
06Z-11Z. CONFIDENCE IN THIS LATE EVENING ACTIVITY DEVELOPING IS HIGH AT
THIS TIME, BUT RELATIVELY LOW REGARDING POTENTIAL IMPACTS FOR ANY
PARTICULAR SINGLE SITE.
A NARROW AXIS OF WIDESPREAD SHRA, WITH ISO TS POSSIBLE, WILL PIVOT
THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA BETWEEN 11Z-17Z FROM W TO E, IMPACTING ANY ONE
SITE FOR ABOUT 3-4 HOURS EACH. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TOWARD
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AS A CORRIDOR OF DRY AIR WRAPS INTO THE
AREA, SUPPORTING SCATTERING CLOUDS AND INCREASED VERTICAL MIXING.
SOME MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE STEADIEST/HEAVIEST SHRA
ACTIVITY BEFORE CIGS TRANSITION BACK TO MORE SOLIDLY VFR LATE IN THE
PERIOD. STEEPENING LL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT WSW ON THE ORDER OF
~20KTS, WITH GUSTS 25-30KTS, TOWARD/BEYOND 18Z MONDAY.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...KC/JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...CAMPBELL
AVIATION...KC
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