319
FXUS61 KILN 201903
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
303 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT
BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA EARLY MONDAY. THIS
WILL LEAD TO OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS, PRIMARILY
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. A WARMER AND MORE
HUMID AIRMASS WILL FILTER BACK INTO THE REGION BY LATE WEEK, BRINGING
EPISODES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS BACK INTO THE AREA BY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
PATCHES OF CIRRUS CONTINUE TO STREAM THROUGH THE AREA AMIDST AN
OTHERWISE MAINLY SUNNY SKY, WITH AN ADVANCING CU FIELD MOVING IN
FROM THE S AS THE FRONT SLOWLY PIVOTS BACK TO THE N INTO TONIGHT.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIRMASS TO ADVANCE
NORTHWARD ONCE AGAIN THROUGH THIS EVENING, PARTICULARLY FOR LOCALES
NEAR/S OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR.
THIS INFLUX OF WARMER AIR WILL COINCIDE WITH AN ABRUPT INCREASE IN
LL MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AS WELL, WITH DEWPOINTS REACHING INTO THE
LOWER 60S NEAR/S OF I-70 AND INTO THE TRI-STATE AREA BY LATE THIS
EVENING. THIS, ALONG WITH SOME MOISTURE/MASS CONVERGENCE AND LIFT
GENERATED ON THE NOSE OF AN INCREASING LLJ, WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A
NARROW CORRIDOR OF SCT TO NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP NEAR THE TRI-
STATE AROUND 00Z BEFORE EXPANDING IN COVERAGE AND MOVING QUICKLY TO
THE NORTHEAST THROUGH 06Z INTO THE MIAMI VALLEY. THERE IS A FAIRLY
STRONG/CONSISTENT SIGNAL AMONGST THE HI-RES GUIDANCE DEPICTING THIS
DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING, SO POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED QUITE A BIT FOR
AREAS NEAR/W OF I-75 BETWEEN 00Z-06Z TO ACCOUNT FOR THE EXPECTATION
FOR FAIRLY HEALTHY COVERAGE OF ACTIVITY THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD.
ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED, SOME HAIL CANNOT
BE RULED OUT IN THE STRONGER CORES GIVEN THE BETTER ELEVATED INSTBY.
THE ADVANCEMENT OF LL MOISTURE INTO THE SW THIRD OF THE AREA BY LATE
THIS EVENING MAY ALLOW FOR SOME SFC-BASED INSTBY TO PIVOT INTO THE
TRI-STATE ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE FRONT, BUT CONFIDENCE ON
MAINTENANCE OF SFC-BASED CONVECTION WITH NORTHWARD EXTENT INTO EC IN
AND WC OH REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME.
OVERALL SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE SHOULD BRIEFLY WANE LOCALLY BETWEEN ABOUT
07Z-10Z PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF SHRA ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT
ITSELF, WHICH WON'T MOVE IN UNTIL CLOSE TO DAYBREAK MONDAY.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
THE SFC LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
INTO MONDAY. AS IT DOES, THE WARM FRONT WILL CLEAR THE LOCAL AREA
TOWARD DAYBREAK AS THE COLD FRONT RAPIDLY APPROACHES FROM THE W. ALONG
THE FRONT, SCT TO NUMEROUS SHRA, ALONG WITH A FEW TS, ARE LIKELY
THROUGH THE MORNING LOCALLY.
DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD EVOLVE NW TO SE INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE
FRONT PIVOTS THROUGH THE AREA. DRY AIR WRAPPING AROUND ON SOUTHERN
BASE OF THE LOW CENTER WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON, SUPPORTING STEEPENING LL LAPSE RATES AND INCREASED
VERTICAL MIXING. THIS WILL LEAD TO VERY BREEZY CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN
BY THE AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT ARE ABLE TO CLEAR OUT
SUFFICIENTLY NEAR/W OF I-71 EARLIER IN THE DAYTIME. SW WINDS ON THE
ORDER OF ~20KTS AND GUSTS TO NEAR 30KTS ARE EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON
AMIDST SCATTERING CLOUD COVER. GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN SUB-ADVISORY, BUT
CERTAINLY A FEW GUSTS CLOSE TO 35KTS (ESPECIALLY NEAR/N OF I-70) CANNOT
BE RULED OUT IN THIS WELL-MIXED ENVIRONMENT. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE
TOWARD SUNSET AND BEYOND AS THE VERTICAL MIXING DECREASES AND THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES.
TEMPS IN THE MID 70S MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL DIP INTO THE UPPER 40S AND
LOWER 50S BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY AS CLEARER SKIES BUILD IN FROM THE NW
AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE TN VLY. SOME CLOUD COVER MAY
LINGER IN NE KY AND THE LOWER SCIOTO VALLEY INTO TUESDAY MORNING,
KEEPING TEMPS IN THESE AREAS A BIT WARMER THAN FOR LOCALES FURTHER TO
THE NW WHERE CLEARER SKIES AND WEAKENING WINDS WILL ESTABLISH SOME
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
WEAK RIDGING AND QUASI-ZONAL H5 FLOW MOVE INTO THE REGION ON
TUESDAY; HIGHER THAN AVERAGE HEIGHTS TRANSLATE TO WARM CONDITIONS
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. CLOSER TO THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WORKS ITS
WAY IN, LEADING TO A QUIET AND DRY PATTERN THROUGH MIDWEEK.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ARRIVES LATE WEEK AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE SWINGS UP FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION, DRAGGING A
DEEPENING/MATURING SURFACE LOW ALONG WITH IT. A SLUG OF MOISTURE
MOVES INTO MUCH OF THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND PWATS CLIMB TO 200%
OF NORMAL. MEANWHILE TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S (LOW 80S?)
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.
LOW END POPS ARE REINTRODUCED ON THURSDAY AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS
THROUGH THE REGION AND THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
SOMETIME BETWEEN THURS NIGHT- SATURDAY EARLY HOURS. PRETTY GOOD
CONFIDENCE THAT WE'LL HAVE SOME THUNDER WITH THIS SYSTEM GIVEN THE
INFLUX OF MOISTURE AND WARMTH, BUT WE'LL HAVE TO WAIT FOR ADDITIONAL
DETAILS AND CLARITY.
AFTER THE COLD FRONT/ LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PROGRESS OFF TO THE EAST,
COLD AIR ADVECTION MOVES IN AND TEMPERATURES FALL TO SEASONAL
NORMALS FOR THE WEEKEND. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE
LOW DRY THE AREA OUT.
AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
PATCHES OF CIRRUS WILL STREAM THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE DAYTIME, WITH A FEW/SCT VFR CU SPROUTING ABOUT LATE IN THE DAY
TOWARD KCVG/KLUK NEAR THE NORTHWARD-ADVANCING WARM FRONT. DRY
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL UNTIL ABOUT 01Z OR SO WHEN ISO/SCT
SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE TRI-STATE AND NEAR
KCVG/KLUK. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE TO THE NNE
THROUGH 06Z, POTENTIALLY IMPACTING VERY BRIEFLY KDAY AND KILN AS
WELL BEFORE DRIER CONDITIONS BRIEFLY RETURN FOR THE TERMINALS BETWEEN
06Z-11Z. CONFIDENCE IN THIS LATE EVENING ACTIVITY DEVELOPING IS HIGH AT
THIS TIME, BUT RELATIVELY LOW REGARDING POTENTIAL IMPACTS FOR ANY
PARTICULAR SINGLE SITE.
A NARROW AXIS OF WIDESPREAD SHRA, WITH ISO TS POSSIBLE, WILL PIVOT
THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA BETWEEN 11Z-17Z FROM W TO E, IMPACTING ANY ONE
SITE FOR ABOUT 3-4 HOURS EACH. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TOWARD
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AS A CORRIDOR OF DRY AIR WRAPS INTO THE
AREA, SUPPORTING SCATTERING CLOUDS AND INCREASED VERTICAL MIXING.
SOME MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE STEADIEST/HEAVIEST SHRA
ACTIVITY BEFORE CIGS TRANSITION BACK TO MORE SOLIDLY VFR LATE IN THE
PERIOD. STEEPENING LL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT WSW ON THE ORDER OF
~20KTS, WITH GUSTS 25-30KTS, TOWARD/BEYOND 18Z MONDAY.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...KC
NEAR TERM...KC
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...KC
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page