270
FXUS61 KILN 202357
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
757 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT
BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA EARLY MONDAY. THIS
WILL LEAD TO OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS, PRIMARILY
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. A WARMER AND MORE
HUMID AIRMASS WILL FILTER BACK INTO THE REGION BY LATE WEEK, BRINGING
EPISODES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS BACK INTO THE AREA BY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/
SOME SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED INTO THE TRI-STATE, BUT
THAT SHOULD QUICKLY BECOME ELEVATED AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZED
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE SOME WEAK
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE TRACKING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING,
WEAKENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. IT IS STILL UNCERTAIN WHETHER THIS WILL
BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE CONVECTION, BUT CHANCE POPS ACROSS WESTERN
COUNTIES ARE STILL WARRANTED. IF STORMS DO OCCUR, THEN WILL CONTINUE
TO WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR HAIL, ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ARE NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING IN
FROM THE WEST LATE, REACHING NEAR THE INDIANA-OHIO BORDER TOWARDS
DAYBREAK.
SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
THE SFC LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
INTO MONDAY. AS IT DOES, THE WARM FRONT WILL CLEAR THE LOCAL AREA
TOWARD DAYBREAK AS THE COLD FRONT RAPIDLY APPROACHES FROM THE W. ALONG
THE FRONT, SCT TO NUMEROUS SHRA, ALONG WITH A FEW TS, ARE LIKELY
THROUGH THE MORNING LOCALLY.
DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD EVOLVE NW TO SE INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE
FRONT PIVOTS THROUGH THE AREA. DRY AIR WRAPPING AROUND ON SOUTHERN
BASE OF THE LOW CENTER WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON, SUPPORTING STEEPENING LL LAPSE RATES AND INCREASED
VERTICAL MIXING. THIS WILL LEAD TO VERY BREEZY CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN
BY THE AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT ARE ABLE TO CLEAR OUT
SUFFICIENTLY NEAR/W OF I-71 EARLIER IN THE DAYTIME. SW WINDS ON THE
ORDER OF ~20KTS AND GUSTS TO NEAR 30KTS ARE EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON
AMIDST SCATTERING CLOUD COVER. GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN SUB-ADVISORY, BUT
CERTAINLY A FEW GUSTS CLOSE TO 35KTS (ESPECIALLY NEAR/N OF I-70) CANNOT
BE RULED OUT IN THIS WELL-MIXED ENVIRONMENT. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE
TOWARD SUNSET AND BEYOND AS THE VERTICAL MIXING DECREASES AND THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES.
TEMPS IN THE MID 70S MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL DIP INTO THE UPPER 40S AND
LOWER 50S BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY AS CLEARER SKIES BUILD IN FROM THE NW
AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE TN VLY. SOME CLOUD COVER MAY
LINGER IN NE KY AND THE LOWER SCIOTO VALLEY INTO TUESDAY MORNING,
KEEPING TEMPS IN THESE AREAS A BIT WARMER THAN FOR LOCALES FURTHER TO
THE NW WHERE CLEARER SKIES AND WEAKENING WINDS WILL ESTABLISH SOME
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
WEAK RIDGING AND QUASI-ZONAL H5 FLOW MOVE INTO THE REGION ON
TUESDAY; HIGHER THAN AVERAGE HEIGHTS TRANSLATE TO WARM CONDITIONS
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. CLOSER TO THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WORKS ITS
WAY IN, LEADING TO A QUIET AND DRY PATTERN THROUGH MIDWEEK.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ARRIVES LATE WEEK AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE SWINGS UP FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION, DRAGGING A
DEEPENING/MATURING SURFACE LOW ALONG WITH IT. A SLUG OF MOISTURE
MOVES INTO MUCH OF THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND PWATS CLIMB TO 200%
OF NORMAL. MEANWHILE TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S (LOW 80S?)
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.
LOW END POPS ARE REINTRODUCED ON THURSDAY AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS
THROUGH THE REGION AND THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
SOMETIME BETWEEN THURS NIGHT- SATURDAY EARLY HOURS. PRETTY GOOD
CONFIDENCE THAT WE'LL HAVE SOME THUNDER WITH THIS SYSTEM GIVEN THE
INFLUX OF MOISTURE AND WARMTH, BUT WE'LL HAVE TO WAIT FOR ADDITIONAL
DETAILS AND CLARITY.
AFTER THE COLD FRONT/ LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PROGRESS OFF TO THE EAST,
COLD AIR ADVECTION MOVES IN AND TEMPERATURES FALL TO SEASONAL
NORMALS FOR THE WEEKEND. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE
LOW DRY THE AREA OUT.
AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD OUTSIDE OF ANY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY WHETHER SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP EARLY IN THE PERIOD, BUT IF THEY DO, WOULD
EXPECT THEM TO OCCUR NEAR THE CINCINNATI TERMINALS FIRST AND THEN
PROGRESS NORTHEAST, POTENTIALLY IMPACTING KDAY AND KILN BUT LIKELY
WEAKENING/STAYING WEST OF THE COLUMBUS TERMINALS. WINDS WILL BE
VEERING AND SLOWLY STRENGTHENING. BUT WINDS ALOFT WILL BE STRONGER
WITH LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR UNTIL AROUND 12Z.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE REGION AFTER 12Z. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF MVFR
CEILINGS, POSSIBLY EVEN BRIEFLY DROPPING BELOW 2KFT. THE POTENTIAL
FOR PRECIPITATION WILL END WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
CEILINGS WILL LIFT TO VFR AND SOME LOCATIONS MAY EVEN SCATTER. WINDS
WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KT.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...KC
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...
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