782
FXUS61 KILN 211450
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1050 AM EDT MON APR 21 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON TODAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS, PRIMARILY THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. A WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIRMASS WILL FILTER BACK
INTO THE REGION BY LATE WEEK, BRINGING EPISODES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
BACK INTO THE AREA BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS ON RADAR/SATELLITE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD
FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. HAVE
SLOWED DOWN TIMING JUST A BIT, BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST CAMS,
BUT OTHERWISE FORECAST PRECIP CHANCES FOR TODAY REMAIN LARGELY
UNCHANGED. WINDS GUSTING TO 25-30KTS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITH THE
FROPA.
FROPA EXPECTED TO BE COMPLETELY THROUGH THE AREA BY ABOUT 22Z. SOME
LOCALLY MAXIMIZED FORCING AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING
ISOLATED STRONG STORMS, AND CAN'T RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR A STORM
OR 2 TO REACH SEVERE THRESHOLDS WITH WIND/HAIL.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AFTER FROPA TONIGHT AND MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR RETURNS TO
THE ON WESTERLY SURFACE FLOW. LOWS BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER 50S TO
UPPER 40S BY DAYBREAK BEFORE RISING INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS ON TUESDAY.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING
WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK, LEADING TO DRY
CONDITIONS AND WARM TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S.
A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
ON THURSDAY, FOLLOWED BY A SOMEWHAT STRONGER MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE
THAT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL INITIALLY
ALLOW FOR A WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON
THURSDAY, BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THEN EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. PCPN WILL
TAPER OFF FROM THE WEST SATURDAY MORNING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. A MORE SEASONABLE AIRMASS WILL THEN SETTLE
INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO
NEAR 70 DEGREES.
AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
RAIN HAS BEGUN OVERSPREADING THE REGION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SO
FAR, VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST EVEN IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY.
ADDITIONALLY, LIGHTNING ACTIVITY REMAINS LOW TO NON EXISTENT. AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES, MVFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP AS RAIN OVERSPREADS MORE
OF THE TAF SITES AHEAD OF FROPA. LIGHTNING ACTIVITY WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE WHILE LIKELY NOT WIDESPREAD. AFTER FROPA THIS AFTERNOON,
SHOWER ACTIVITY ENDS AND VFR CONDITIONS RETURN.
SOUTHERLY WINDS VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST TODAY AND INCREASE TO AROUND
20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS BY THE AFTERNOON. WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST
AROUND 0000Z TUESDAY AND BEGIN TO SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...CAMPBELL
NEAR TERM...JDR
SHORT TERM...CAMPBELL
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...CAMPBELL
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